Brand New NYT Poll Shows the Path to Victory
Harris has made gains on the two issues that will decide the election: change and the economy
Nate Cohn descended from the mount with his latest set of New York Times/Siena polls to deliver a verdict on the state of the race. The result is… confusing.
Kamala Harris leads Trump 49-46 nationally, her best showing in a NYT/Siena poll. However, she is down 6 in Texas and a stunning 13 points in Florida. The Texas result is within the expected range — Biden lost Texas by 6 points in 2020. Biden lost Florida by only 3.5 points, and most current polls look similar to the 2020 margins. This poll seems like a huge outlier (although Nate Cohn defended it in his column today).
The last NYT/Siena national poll, conducted after Harris’s debate win, showed the race tied at 47-47. A three-point shift is essentially within the poll’s 2.9% margin for error so, how can we tell if this poll represents real momentum for Harris or statistical noise? Given the inherent imprecision of polling, a tied poll is not a reason to get under your desk in the fetal position; and a three-point lead is not a reason to cheer. The media treats small movements in the polls as tectonic shifts in the race to drive clicks and ratings. I didn’t despair about the tied poll nor am I ecstatic over this one. What is interesting and instructive, however, is looking underneath the hood at what changed since September. Harris is now leading the story of this election and that should inform our strategy over the next 28 days.
1. It’s All About Change and the Economy
Two interrelated political forces define this election — dissatisfaction with the economy and a strong desire for political change. Throughout this campaign, Trump dominated both conversations.
As a faux-businessman/rich guy, the electorate presumes Trump knows something about the economy (He doesn’t!). There is also nostalgia — even among some Democrats — for the pre-pandemic 2017 economy. Things felt stable and prices for essentials were lower. We can argue till the cows come home about whether people are right to feel this way given the low unemployment, higher wages, and strong growth of the Biden economy. But this is how people feel, and years of trying to convince them otherwise have not succeeded. Nevertheless, their minds might just change over the next four weeks.
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