Can Jasmine Crockett Win in Texas?

A discussion of the electability debate roiling Democrats

The narrow path to a Democratic Senate Majority runs through Texas.

It’s not ideal—the state that Trump carried by 14 points last year, where Democrats haven’t won a Senate race since 1988 or any statewide race in 31 years. Still, there’s a genuine reason for optimism this cycle. The political environment is likely to be favorable, and Republicans are mired in a bitter primary that could produce a deeply flawed nominee in Ken Paxton.

The picture became clearer yesterday when Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett announced a Senate run. Former Congressman Colin Allred, fresh off an impressive challenge to Ted Cruz in 2024, dropped out. That leaves Crockett facing State Representative James Talarico in the primary.

Crockett’s likely entrance sparked immediate dismay from certain pundits and political strategists who argue that nominating her would doom Democrats in November. Predictably, that reignited the Democratic Party’s eternal debate over electability—which types of candidates can actually win in purple or red terrain?

This debate has been ever-present, but it exploded after 2016 and dominated the 2020 primary. Joe Biden’s strongest argument was that he was the Democrat most likely to beat Trump. And just this week, after Aftyn Behn lost a heavily Republican special election in Tennessee-7 by an unexpectedly narrow margin, people returned to questioning whether a “moderate” might have done better. Of course, the electability debate is often drenched in racist and misogynistic assumptions that give white men a presumption of electability denied to women and people of color.

As frustrating as the debate is, it matters. To win the Senate or the Electoral College, Democrats must win over voters to the right of the median Democratic voter. Activists and donors want to invest in candidates who can actually win.

So how should we think about electability—and Jasmine Crockett’s chances in particular?

I will forewarn you that there are no easy answers, and the question at hand is more complicated than the hot takes suggest.

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1. What is Electability

Electability is notoriously squishy. There is no magic formula. If anyone truly understood electability, we would never lose.

Three of the last four presidential elections were won by candidates who defied conventional notions of “electable.” After Bush’s 2004 win, the pundit class insisted Democrats needed a moderate Southern governor with national security credentials. Instead, Democrats nominated Barack Obama, a young anti-war senator with a funny name from the South Side of Chicago. Obama went on to win the biggest Democratic landslide in half a century.