Can We Trust the Polls in 2026?
Plus a discussion of the Electoral College and the Senate map
Welcome to this week’s mailbag. Lots of great questions and comments this week, so let’s get right into it.
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Tom Toro
In the last presidential election the polls did not reflect accurately what the final outcome was. Why should we believe them now and are they really true indicators of what and how voters feel?
Answer
This question goes to the heart of this newsletter and frankly, much of what I do. I like to believe that the value proposition of Message Box (and Message Box Pro) is that my takes and insights are grounded in data. I really try not to fire off from the hip, because that’s what 95% of all political commentators do.
So asking whether the polling data that undergirds my analysis is accurate is a tough but very fair question. Beyond my work, so many Democrats want to know if they can trust the polls that show Trump sinking, Democrats winning on the generic ballot, and candidates like James Talarico and Mary Peltola in the hunt in deeply red states like Texas and Alaska.
And after the giant poll misses in recent elections, it’s fair to ask — can we trust the polls?
