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The Message Box

Did Biden Just Take the Lead in the Polls?

For the first time in this race, Biden is ahead in the 538 Average

Dan Pfeiffer's avatar
Dan Pfeiffer
Jun 21, 2024
∙ Paid

After nearly a year of poll panic, something very notable happened. For the first time, Joe Biden has taken the lead in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Now, on the one hand, it’s fair to ask who cares about a one-tenth of 1% lead in one particular average more than four months before the election? But for Democrats and doomers who have been infected with defeatism about a seemingly inevitable Trump victory, this was a rare moment to cheer.

The occasion was made even more joyous because the poll that likely put Biden over the top came from Fox News — showing a 7-point swing in the President’s favor since March. And even more enjoyable? Donald Trump is melting down on Truth Social about the Fox poll.

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