Did Donald Trump Just Become a Lame Duck?

Tuesday's election signaled Trump might entering a different, weaker phase of his presidency

Tuesday’s devastating losses for the Republicans represent a hinge-point in the narrative of Trump’s presidency. Up to this point, Trump has been seen as ascendant; as a strongman seizing power at home and flexing his muscles abroad. Despite an unpopular agenda, low approval ratings, and large majorities dissatisfied with the direction of the country, Trump seemed immune to the laws of political gravity.

That all changed on Tuesday.

The voters finally got to push the pundits, press, and podcasters aside and render their judgment on the first nine months of Trump 2.0.

And the judgment was brutal.

Democrats won everywhere by larger-than-expected margins. It wasn’t just blue states or blue districts. Democrats won two huge victories for the Georgia Public Service Commission by more than 20 points. It was shellacking.

Many saw the results as the beginning of a Democratic resurgence after a year of infighting and fecklessness in the face of Trump’s power grabs. As Jonathan Martin wrote in Politico:

And on Tuesday, an election that seemed poised to illuminate the Democratic Party’s fractures instead turned into a rout of the Republican Party, an unambiguously brutal referendum on Donald Trump’s first year back in power. For the first time since Joe Biden stepped onto that fateful debate stage 15 months ago, the main currents of the country’s political debate shifted away from the Democrats’ woes.

This was not just an off-year election. It was a circuit-breaker that finally ended 2024, the party’s annus horribilis.

No question, winning this week exorcised some demons for the Democrats. However, Tuesday was more than a new beginning for Democrats; it was the beginning of the end for Trump.

Most analysts — myself included have been treating Trump like a newly elected president. There is a historical rhythm to new presidencies — Presidents come in popular, do a bunch of stuff, overstep their bounds, become less popular, get humbled in the 2025 elections, and then get shellacked in the midterms.

Every modern President, except George W. Bush, whose presidency was changed by 9/11, has followed some version of this path.

However, after this week, I think we need to stop thinking about 2025 as the first year of Trump 2.0 and start thinking about it as the fifth year of Trump 1.0.

For a while, we all worried that Trump would somehow find a loophole to run again, but even Trump has now taken that idea off the table.

This is not the beginning, it’s the beginning of the end.

When you begin to look at his presidency through the second term frame, you can find all the hallmarks of a President entering his lame duck era.

1. Rapidly Deflating Poll Numbers

The weekend before the elections, a flurry of polls was released. Each one was more devastating to Trump than the last. Several showed his approval rating falling below 40 percent. As you can see in this chart from Nate Silver, the trendlines are not great for Trump.