Did the DNC Just Hand Kamala Harris the 2028 Nomination?
Moving South Carolina first is the best-case scenario for Harris, but she still has to prove she can win.
The first shoe of the 2028 presidential primary dropped on Friday, and it has the potential to radically reshape the race.
The DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee has decided on the order of the presidential primaries. For a long time, the order was set in stone: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. In 2008, they added a Nevada caucus before South Carolina. After losing Iowa and New Hampshire but winning South Carolina, Biden’s allies at the DNC moved South Carolina to the front of the line for the 2024 election. This was a temporary and cynical move designed to reward South Carolina and help foreclose a primary challenge against Biden.
Friday’s decision was the first wholesale reimagining of the calendar since the advent of the modern primary system. Here’s the new order of contests approved by the DNC.
January 22 - South Carolina
February 1 - Nevada
February 8 - New Hampshire
February 15 - New Mexico
February 22 - Michigan
February 29 - Virginia
March 7 - Super Tuesday
One caveat is that New Hampshire has a state law mandating that it hold the first primary in the nation. Under the old calendar, Iowa was a caucus state, which meant it could go before New Hampshire. When the DNC put South Carolina first in 2024, New Hampshire didn’t change its date, so the DNC stripped all of its delegates. To move to February 8th, New Hampshire will need its Republican governor to agree to move the date, or to hold a fully party-funded primary. If neither happens, another state, likely Delaware, would move into that slot.
The big news, of course, is that South Carolina will go first. The first state is exponentially more important than each subsequent state. South Carolina wouldn’t have been my choice. I would have preferred a battleground state like Nevada or Michigan to go first, but I understand how the DNC ended up here.
A lot is going to change between now and January 22, 2028, but it’s hard to see putting South Carolina first as anything other than a massive advantage for Kamala Harris.
