Donald Trump is Losing the Shutdown (and I think He Knows it)

I’ll admit it. I’m a natural pessimist.

Okay, if you’re a regular listener to Pod Save America or a reader of this newsletter, you almost certainly didn’t need me to tell you that. I’ve always been this way. I plan for the worst and hope for the best. I knock on wood at the mere suggestion of something great happening. I look for dark linings in silver clouds.

I really try to avoid offering false hope, because it’s what some readers want and it’s a very good tactic for driving growth on Substack. I probably overcorrect on that front and can sometimes come across as overly pessimistic about our party’s prospects.

But in the case of the shutdown, I find myself in the deeply uncomfortable position of being one of the more optimistic people out there.

Through the first few days of this shutdown, most Democrats I speak with are preemptively despondent about the outcome. Even if they believed a shutdown was the right move, they’re convinced that Democrats will cave. They believe (with some reason) that our leaders aren’t up to the task of winning the messaging wars.

Much of the media has bought into that narrative, based on a misreading of the history of shutdowns and on conversations with anxious Democrats who can’t stop unburdening themselves to reporters.

I think Democrats have a strong hand to play. It’s still early. Things can change. But as of right now, Donald Trump is losing the shutdown messaging war — and I think he knows it.

Here’s why:

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1. A Shutdown Like No Other

It’s an article of faith that the party that initiates a shutdown loses the fight. As Matt Glassman wrote in his widely read Substack arguing against the shutdown:

“The party trying to leverage the shutdown always loses the public opinion battle. True for the Gingrich Republicans in 1995. True for the Ted Cruz Obamacare opponents in 2013. True for the Trump border-wall shutdown in 2019. And true for the Senate Democrats in 2018 (they folded in two days over a weekend, arguably not an actual, technical shutdown).”

That’s historically accurate — but it lacks some critical context. Everyone assumes the mere fact of being the party that shuts down the government is why Republicans have suffered politically.