Even Trump's Base Doesn’t Want War with Iran

Trump is considering bombing Iran, America wants no part of it

President Trump is openly considering U.S. involvement in the war between Israel and Iran. According to the New York Times:

President Trump is weighing a critical decision in the four-day-old war between Israel and Iran: whether to enter the fray by helping Israel destroy the deeply buried nuclear enrichment facility at Fordo, which only America’s biggest “bunker buster,” dropped by American B-2 bombers, can reach.

If he decides to go ahead, the United States will become a direct participant in a new conflict in the Middle East, taking on Iran in exactly the kind of war Mr. Trump has sworn, in two campaigns, he would avoid. Iranian officials have already warned that U.S. participation in an attack on its facilities will imperil any remaining chance of the nuclear disarmament deal that Mr. Trump insists he is still interested in pursuing.

If Trump’s posts on Truth Social are to be believed, he may be leaning towards sending U.S. bombers to Iran. Trump’s posts threatened the life of the Supreme Leader of Iran and called on Iran to offer “unconditional surrender” — a step much more significant than simply giving up their nuclear ambitions.

This decision could pull the U.S. into yet another disastrous war of choice. The Israelis want a regime change in Iran, not the simple destruction of Iran’s nuclear capability. Iran has reportedly prepared missiles for attacks on U.S. bases if Trump okays a military strike against Iran. There are others (like the hosts of Pod Save the World) who can speak about the foreign policy consequences of Trump deciding to bomb Iran, but I’ll stick to my hackier lane and weigh in on the politics.

On that front, the American people and the MAGA base agree: this war is a BAD idea.

A War No One Wants

I know the politics of a potential war seems trite, but wars are seismic political events. They can reshape political outcomes for years. Without 9/11 and the Iraq War, George W. Bush is a one-term president and Obama doesn't run for and win the White House in 2008.

The politics of war can lead the country further down the path. In 2003, too many Democrats feared being seen as weak on terrorism so they swallowed their concerns and voted for the Iraq War.

Democrats should confidently oppose U.S. strikes against Iran.

An Economist/YouGov poll found that only 16% of U.S. adults and less than a quarter of Republicans think the U.S. should get involved in the conflict between Iran and Israel.

Trump voters are even less enthusiastic than Republicans as a whole. Only 19% of 2024 Trump voters support U.S. involvement.

Donald the Dove No More

A war with Iran poses a particular risk to Donald Trump, because it would be a major violation of his political identity.

The apocryphal idea that Trump is an anti-war candidate has been at the center of his political appeal since 2016. New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd infamously cemented this false notion with the headline Hillary the Hawk, Donald the Dove. Trump falsely claimed to have opposed the Iraq War, attacked the Bush’s for the wars, and ran as an isolationist who wanted to minimize American involvement in foreign wars. In 2024, he pledged to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and keep the U.S. out of conflicts in the Middle East.

MAGA diehards like Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson see Trump as a true isolationist who believes in his America First rhetoric. The NeoCons in the GOP see Trump as a bellicose useful idiot that they can lure into a war with Iran by appealing to his insecurity and vanity.

A decision to put the U.S. on another warpath would turn off the broader public but also split Trump’s base.

Trump is the politically weakest newly-elected president in recent history. A decision to bomb Iran could make his decision much, much worse.