The Message Box

The Message Box

How Big Will the Blue Wave Be?

Plus: the "unelectable" narrative, the case against impeaching Trump, and why open primaries don't do what critics think

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Dan Pfeiffer
Aug 15, 2026
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Welcome to this week’s mailbag. While primary season is somehow still not over, the most contentious ones are mostly behind us, which means we can turn our gaze to the general election and the very important question of just how big the Blue Wave will be.

Before we get to that, we have some housekeeping to take care of. These mailbags are for paid subscribers. If you want to get your question answered — and read my answers to everyone else’s — please consider becoming a paid subscriber.

If you’re already a subscriber, leave your question for next week in the comments below.

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Eugene J Kales

Under the assumption that in a wave races tend to “all” break in the same direction, how unreasonable would it be to entertain the optimistic position that the Dems might pick up five or six senate seats —NC, ME, OH, IA, AK, TX, possibly losing only MI?

Answer

For the very transparently cynical purpose of trying to get more people to read (and subscribe to) this newsletter, I am going to reframe this question as: How big will the Blue Wave be?

The bigger the wave, the more Democrats elected, the greater the chance of taking the Senate, and the bigger the rebuke of Trump, his broken promises, his idiotic war, and his rampant corruption.

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