How Dems Win the Gerrymandering War
Plus a discussion of the California Governor's race and what makes a candidate "electable" in 2026
Welcome to this week’s mailbag. So many questions this week from subscribers about the rapid and ongoing Republican effort to rig the midterms by redrawing congressional maps across the South — what it means for this year and what Democrats can do going forward.
It’s hard to think of a more urgent topic, so let’s get right into it.
But first, a little housekeeping:
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And don’t forget to leave your questions for next week’s mailbag in the comments.
Thomas Reynolds
I’m very concerned about the midterms after the Virginia ruling. Do you have any insight into how the Democratic Party plans to respond or shift strategy?
Boris
Do you think that Democrats in states where they have a trifecta will eventually get on board with the most aggressive gerrymandering possible for after 2026? Some redistricting analysts suggested that the math for Democrats controlling the House in 2028 once the Republican gerrymandered maps get fully implemented gets very difficult if we don’t target as many seats as possible with our own gerrymandering but I’m worried that some Democrats still aren’t there.
Answer
You have every right to be concerned. What has happened since the Supreme Court decision gutting Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and greenlighting racial gerrymandering across the Deep South represents the greatest threat to democracy, minority representation in Congress, and Democratic chances this fall. Thirty percent of the Congressional Black Caucus could see their seats eliminated. The House will be more Republican and even more White. Decades of progress have been wiped away based on the whims of six justices.
Prior to the double whammy of the Supreme Court ruling and the Virginia court ruling striking down the new, voter-approved map, Democrats were on a glide path to winning the House by a relatively substantial margin. Now, that once-certain outcome is in some measure of doubt. By letting the GOP redraw the maps so close to the election, the Supreme Court is attempting to give Trump a measure of political immunity to go along with the legal immunity they granted him in 2024.
