How to Make Trump's Fraud Verdict Matter to Voters
The verdict in the civil fraud case should cost Trump more than money.
Yesterday, a New York City judge fined Donald Trump more than $350 million for falsely inflating the value of assets to secure better terms from lenders and insurers. Trump and his sons were also essentially banned from doing business in New York for three years.
It’s been a tough stretch for the twice-impeached, two-time popular vote loser. Last month he was fined more than $83 million for defaming E. Jean Carroll, whom a previous just found that Trump raped decades ago. Jury selection in Trump’s trial for violating campaign finance law to cover up an extra-marital affair is set to begin on March 25th. And absent intervention from the Supreme Court, the criminal trial for attempting to overthrow the election, which is the one where Trump faces the most legal and political jeopardy, could begin soon.
Common sense and history suggest that Trump's legal problems would be too many bricks on the load, and his candidacy would collapse before our eyes. Alas, that is not the case. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump is leading Nikki Haley by 59 points and is locked in a dead heat with Joe Biden.
It would be easy to look at Trump’s continued strength in the polls, conclude that he is immune to political accountability, and focus the campaign on issues other than the former President’s criminal conduct.
That’s a defeatist attitude. One of Barack Obama’s cardinal communications rules is to always talk about the elephant in the room — even when polls suggest it would be better to avoid. It would be a massive strategic blunder to avoid making Trump’s criminality and rampant corruption anything other than a centerpiece of the campaign. But — as always — how we talk about it matters.
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How to Talk About It
Yesterday's trial verdict was civil, not criminal. So technically, Trump has not been convicted of a crime, but that’s a distinction without a difference for most voters. He has been declared a fraud by the state of New York and can no longer conduct business there. We should also assume most voters won’t hear a single word about the fine, unless we tell them. Judge Engoron rendered his verdict the Friday before a holiday weekend. Back when I worked in political communications, this was the sort of timing I would suggest to dump bad news so the fewest people would notice. Therefore, the onus to spread the word is on us.
I view this verdict as a way to do three things:
Be Clear About What Trump Did: Ultimately, Trump was found guilty of lying to banks and insurance companies to line his own pockets with hundreds of millions of dollars.
Connect it to the Kind of President Trump Will Be: I would like to believe that electing someone found guilty of fraud (and sexual assault) would be a non-starter, but I fear we will have to make the case that his past transgressions tell a story about the kind of president Trump will be. Here’s one way to make the case:
Can we really trust someone guilty of massive financial fraud and banned from doing business in New York to protect consumers from corporations that price-gouge, Wall Street banks playing fast and loose with the rules, and Big Tech companies hoarding our data and exploiting our children? Trump cares more about lining his own pockets than helping you make ends meet.
Make it Part of a Larger Narrative: Trump’s legal troubles should be disqualifying, but to make them stick, we must connect them to a larger narrative about Trump. Here is one suggested way to do it based on polling from Navigator Research.
These investigations were conducted by law enforcement professionals. The decision to bring the indictments were made by career prosecutors and approved by a jury of Donald Trump’s peers. No politician is above the law, not even a President or a former President. A jury will render a judgment in each case, but Donald Trump cannot and should not return to the White House. The record is clear: he is more focused on protecting himself, helping his rich, politically connected friends and punishing his enemies than lowering costs, raising wages or protecting your family.
This verdict is a reminder that Trump is more politically vulnerable than the prevailing narrative suggests and that it is imperative to frame this election as a choice between a decent, experienced man who cares about you and a chaotic criminal who only cares about himself. We must take the opportunity to make that case every time it arises.
I would add to point number 1 that we need to remind voters that far from being a victimless crime, which is what Trump would have us believe, every one of the billions of dollars that he fraudulently obtained was a dollar that wasn't available to other honest, rule abiding borrowers who thus lost opportunities to grow their assets or their businesses. He wasn't just making money for himself, he was stealing money from each and every one of us.
But they know all this already in one way or another. No one doesn't know he is corrupt, petty and a horrible individual. What I have found in speaking with rational
people who lean right is that they are just less inclined to vote at all. They know he is a nut job so they won't vote for him, but their concerns about Biden exist, so they won't vote at all. I think our energies need to be framed this way: By not voting at all you are essentially voting for Trump, so that should not be an option. I'm hearing from my Muslim friends that they are so angry at Biden and want to teach him a lesson, but they know Trump is not good for them, so they won't vote at all. I then make the argument while all that makes some sense, not voting is a vote for Trump. I think we need help with this messaging as well.