Dems should relentlessly dub any price increase the TRUMP TAX. That’s what it is and that’s what Republicans would do. All the economic wonkery and lengthy explainers just work to his advantage.
Hate to say it, Dan, but the only way many Americans will even begin to realize how harmful and stupid Trump’s policies are is if they personally feel the painful effects and begin to question the propaganda and misinformation in which they are drowning. If and when Wall Street crashes substantially enough, that will get the attention of the more affluent, the same way rampant inflation will make the poor and middle class more open to the idea that Trump is not in fact a successful billionaire who is going to “run the country like a business” and somehow make them personally more wealthy.
The good news is that public sentiment can change. The bad news is that the economy will have to essentially fall off a cliff before elected Republicans will feel enough pressure to push back against Trump’s idiotic and dangerous policies.
I think the point is for us to start hammering the Trump Tax message now so that when American start feeling the pain - even a little bit - they have it in their heads that Trump is responsible. Remember, we're not trying to convert the cult, we're trying to reach the people who voted for him reluctantly, and low engagement voters.
True, some voters are more gettable than others.. but nobody will be angrier and more vocal and energetic than the most loyal Trumpers once they realize he’s made fools of them and he couldn’t care less about them.
I didn’t mean to unduly criticize Americans in particular for being overly self-interested but rather to emphasize the degree to which we are suffering less from a disagreement amount policy than from what I see as a severe epistemological crisis here in the USA. Widespread complacency and ignorance are not accidental—they are the result of a deliberate and longstanding, ongoing effort by the powers that be to keep us inundated with distractions, disinformation and division.
The ignorant and those who perceive themselves to be powerless are much easier to govern.
I tend to think most people of any nationality will generally make reasonable choices about their governance if they have access to reliable information and a democratic process that provides for it. Fair to say that the irony was completely lost on those who have just voted against democracy here in the US.
Yes, and beyond that, further bad news is that America's standing in the world, and the fate of many nations and people in the world, will suffer irreparably.
A mistake democrats are making is they have to defend people and not programs. Stop talking about Medicaid and instead talk about the people that get helped. They are hurting poor people to pay for a tax cut for billionaires.
Side bar: the Kristy noem propaganda commercial is everywhere and there’s no way this should be legal.
And, when we talk about poor people, we need to be very clear that these are WORKING Americans. Yes, they are poor, but they are working, disabled, children, or elderly, the vast majority of households. That is true of specific entitlement programs like SNAP(food stamps), TANF (cash assistance, which barely exists anymore), Medicaid, LiHEAP. Working Americans. This cannot be over-emphasized. Most Americans believe that anyone receiving government assistance sits about twiddling their thumbs, and this is just NOT accurate.
Dan you absolutely nailed it with the last sentence of this piece. For timely evidence, the NYT shows us what we're up against when it comes to reaching voters:
That piece is infuriating and frustrating to me (not the least of which is because of the cognitive dissonance) but it makes clear we have much work to do.
I know I always think of it as a tax, but will start saying Trump tax.
I keep coming back to Trump doesn’t have to care about polls since he won’t face another election. He has never cared about the people, just the votes, and now there will be no more votes. So he just can rain down chaos and make money for himself and his buddies while he can.
Democratic elected officials have to stop lighting their hair on fire at every provocation. The singular message that must constantly be the source of every criticism of Musk/Trump must refer to economic inequality. Leave the shouting and protests to people across the country. Billionaires are gorging on the misery of real Americans. Let’s make sure that the MAGA term is appropriated by Dems.
The other part of a 2 prong messaging strategy must be positive. Democrats cannot simply stand for the status quo. Every aspect of our government must be addressed with ideas about improving the lives of Real Americans by making targeted changes to Departments and independent agencies. This is where a shadow cabinet would be effective.
"No one understands why Trump is complaining about fentanyl coming across the border from Canada when almost all of it crosses the southern border."
It's because he truly understands almost nothing about how anything works outside of personal dynamics – and even that he understands only in terms of bullying power, including when bluster is substituted for real leverage – and he applies that feral understanding to everything.
There is no 3D chess going on, no overarching philosophy or principles guiding what he says or does. What drives him is his own wealth (or appearance of it) and whatever adulation he can garner. All the rest, what we're bearing the brunt of, is what's being handed to him to execute by those who *do* have overarching agendas.
It's that simple. Which doesn't mean Dan and others in the political sphere don't have to craft a way to defeat the GOP, but as regards Trump there's nothing there but avarice and a black hole searching for attention.
We also need to remind people that this is not a Strategy to bolster US manufacturing jobs. Or any jobs. If we are lucky and do a bunch of clever things then it could help in the next decade. But in the immediate and short term it does nothing. Except raise prices.
Trump is doing this because he is an imbecile who locked on to the idea of tariffs years ago. It's like your crazy Grandpa who believes plastics naturally degrade in landfills or that dinosaurs are a hoax.
I feel like the negative jobs side of all the Trump / Musk /MAGA movements is being seriously underestimated and reported. Tariffs change the economic calculus so will have companies deciding it’s not profitable enough to be worth the hassle but at the same time it’s being done so haphazardly few will want to rely entirely on them to protect their business. So we’ll have lost the import handling and distribution jobs but not gained any new manufacturing jobs.
I have a question, in the 1990s there was a dragged out fight in congress over how many and which bases should be shut down. I remember community economic impact and local jobs being a high part of that argument. Where is that fight and discussion around tariffs or the civil service job cuts? This is a lot of lives and companies being disrupted.
And yet, when my contractor warned me we needed to hurry to buy some materials because the cost of aluminum, steel and etc. to restore my storm damaged home is going up due to tariffs--I suggested that this was an unforced error caused by Trump. To which the MAGA adoring heart of my builder was exposed---explaining to me that our problems will be temporary. This is going to work for the best. And--the sudden pause in the application of some tariffs was a "smart move" by Trump. Smart. Bless his little MAGA heart. So--I shut my mouth and began breathing into a paper sack.
Thanks Dan for the helpful messaging from Blue Rose Research. Nice and readable. Just used it as the intro to my repost of your substack on all my social media. ✅
I personally have never found that framing tariffs as a “sales tax” to be a compelling message. It is not a sales tax and so why call it one? I didn’t like this message from Kamala and I don’t like it now. And yes I have zero polling data of my own :)
I think it’s simpler to clarify that “American businesses and consumers foot the bill” and so it’s going to raise costs for everyday goods, make our businesses pay more and have to rise their own prices, and so also decrease the competitiveness of American products in the global market.
This will do the opposite of helping the economy. It will cost us jobs.
Targeted tariffs to protect national security interests along with investments in critical industries are what we should be considering. And those should be directed towards our foes, not our friends.
Thank you for this post. I'm a new subscriber and hoping for some easy to process suggestions of who to read from the other side. I don't want to junk up my feed and listen to wacko crazy but also trying to understand how the republicans are viewing current events. Suggestions?
Regarding strategy I will offer this: Democrats should pound home the fact that Trump, who's had multiple businesses fail, is the only person who believes businesses don't pass along increased costs, like tariffs, to the consumer.
Dems should relentlessly dub any price increase the TRUMP TAX. That’s what it is and that’s what Republicans would do. All the economic wonkery and lengthy explainers just work to his advantage.
The Trump Tariffs are really a sales tax!
Hate to say it, Dan, but the only way many Americans will even begin to realize how harmful and stupid Trump’s policies are is if they personally feel the painful effects and begin to question the propaganda and misinformation in which they are drowning. If and when Wall Street crashes substantially enough, that will get the attention of the more affluent, the same way rampant inflation will make the poor and middle class more open to the idea that Trump is not in fact a successful billionaire who is going to “run the country like a business” and somehow make them personally more wealthy.
The good news is that public sentiment can change. The bad news is that the economy will have to essentially fall off a cliff before elected Republicans will feel enough pressure to push back against Trump’s idiotic and dangerous policies.
I think the point is for us to start hammering the Trump Tax message now so that when American start feeling the pain - even a little bit - they have it in their heads that Trump is responsible. Remember, we're not trying to convert the cult, we're trying to reach the people who voted for him reluctantly, and low engagement voters.
True, some voters are more gettable than others.. but nobody will be angrier and more vocal and energetic than the most loyal Trumpers once they realize he’s made fools of them and he couldn’t care less about them.
Sadly, I think this take is correct. People who support trump will not change until they personally feel the consequences.
I didn’t mean to unduly criticize Americans in particular for being overly self-interested but rather to emphasize the degree to which we are suffering less from a disagreement amount policy than from what I see as a severe epistemological crisis here in the USA. Widespread complacency and ignorance are not accidental—they are the result of a deliberate and longstanding, ongoing effort by the powers that be to keep us inundated with distractions, disinformation and division.
The ignorant and those who perceive themselves to be powerless are much easier to govern.
I tend to think most people of any nationality will generally make reasonable choices about their governance if they have access to reliable information and a democratic process that provides for it. Fair to say that the irony was completely lost on those who have just voted against democracy here in the US.
Yes, and beyond that, further bad news is that America's standing in the world, and the fate of many nations and people in the world, will suffer irreparably.
A mistake democrats are making is they have to defend people and not programs. Stop talking about Medicaid and instead talk about the people that get helped. They are hurting poor people to pay for a tax cut for billionaires.
Side bar: the Kristy noem propaganda commercial is everywhere and there’s no way this should be legal.
And, when we talk about poor people, we need to be very clear that these are WORKING Americans. Yes, they are poor, but they are working, disabled, children, or elderly, the vast majority of households. That is true of specific entitlement programs like SNAP(food stamps), TANF (cash assistance, which barely exists anymore), Medicaid, LiHEAP. Working Americans. This cannot be over-emphasized. Most Americans believe that anyone receiving government assistance sits about twiddling their thumbs, and this is just NOT accurate.
Dan you absolutely nailed it with the last sentence of this piece. For timely evidence, the NYT shows us what we're up against when it comes to reaching voters:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/05/us/trump-address-us-reaction.html
That piece is infuriating and frustrating to me (not the least of which is because of the cognitive dissonance) but it makes clear we have much work to do.
As always, Pete Buttigieg offers a master class in how it's done. A key message, "let's be clear, tariffs are a tax." https://youtu.be/vMFYTczHpv0
I know I always think of it as a tax, but will start saying Trump tax.
I keep coming back to Trump doesn’t have to care about polls since he won’t face another election. He has never cared about the people, just the votes, and now there will be no more votes. So he just can rain down chaos and make money for himself and his buddies while he can.
Democratic elected officials have to stop lighting their hair on fire at every provocation. The singular message that must constantly be the source of every criticism of Musk/Trump must refer to economic inequality. Leave the shouting and protests to people across the country. Billionaires are gorging on the misery of real Americans. Let’s make sure that the MAGA term is appropriated by Dems.
The other part of a 2 prong messaging strategy must be positive. Democrats cannot simply stand for the status quo. Every aspect of our government must be addressed with ideas about improving the lives of Real Americans by making targeted changes to Departments and independent agencies. This is where a shadow cabinet would be effective.
"No one understands why Trump is complaining about fentanyl coming across the border from Canada when almost all of it crosses the southern border."
It's because he truly understands almost nothing about how anything works outside of personal dynamics – and even that he understands only in terms of bullying power, including when bluster is substituted for real leverage – and he applies that feral understanding to everything.
There is no 3D chess going on, no overarching philosophy or principles guiding what he says or does. What drives him is his own wealth (or appearance of it) and whatever adulation he can garner. All the rest, what we're bearing the brunt of, is what's being handed to him to execute by those who *do* have overarching agendas.
It's that simple. Which doesn't mean Dan and others in the political sphere don't have to craft a way to defeat the GOP, but as regards Trump there's nothing there but avarice and a black hole searching for attention.
We also need to remind people that this is not a Strategy to bolster US manufacturing jobs. Or any jobs. If we are lucky and do a bunch of clever things then it could help in the next decade. But in the immediate and short term it does nothing. Except raise prices.
Trump is doing this because he is an imbecile who locked on to the idea of tariffs years ago. It's like your crazy Grandpa who believes plastics naturally degrade in landfills or that dinosaurs are a hoax.
Duh
I feel like the negative jobs side of all the Trump / Musk /MAGA movements is being seriously underestimated and reported. Tariffs change the economic calculus so will have companies deciding it’s not profitable enough to be worth the hassle but at the same time it’s being done so haphazardly few will want to rely entirely on them to protect their business. So we’ll have lost the import handling and distribution jobs but not gained any new manufacturing jobs.
I have a question, in the 1990s there was a dragged out fight in congress over how many and which bases should be shut down. I remember community economic impact and local jobs being a high part of that argument. Where is that fight and discussion around tariffs or the civil service job cuts? This is a lot of lives and companies being disrupted.
And yet, when my contractor warned me we needed to hurry to buy some materials because the cost of aluminum, steel and etc. to restore my storm damaged home is going up due to tariffs--I suggested that this was an unforced error caused by Trump. To which the MAGA adoring heart of my builder was exposed---explaining to me that our problems will be temporary. This is going to work for the best. And--the sudden pause in the application of some tariffs was a "smart move" by Trump. Smart. Bless his little MAGA heart. So--I shut my mouth and began breathing into a paper sack.
You have more restraint than me. I’m really struggling to not simply laugh in their face when I’m told MAGAisms.
Thanks Dan for the helpful messaging from Blue Rose Research. Nice and readable. Just used it as the intro to my repost of your substack on all my social media. ✅
Maybe Cory Booker could do a PowerPoint.
Because that seems like the strongest messaging tool Dems can muster. It’s making us in the cheap seats feel doomed.
I personally have never found that framing tariffs as a “sales tax” to be a compelling message. It is not a sales tax and so why call it one? I didn’t like this message from Kamala and I don’t like it now. And yes I have zero polling data of my own :)
I think it’s simpler to clarify that “American businesses and consumers foot the bill” and so it’s going to raise costs for everyday goods, make our businesses pay more and have to rise their own prices, and so also decrease the competitiveness of American products in the global market.
This will do the opposite of helping the economy. It will cost us jobs.
Targeted tariffs to protect national security interests along with investments in critical industries are what we should be considering. And those should be directed towards our foes, not our friends.
Thank you for this post. I'm a new subscriber and hoping for some easy to process suggestions of who to read from the other side. I don't want to junk up my feed and listen to wacko crazy but also trying to understand how the republicans are viewing current events. Suggestions?
Regarding strategy I will offer this: Democrats should pound home the fact that Trump, who's had multiple businesses fail, is the only person who believes businesses don't pass along increased costs, like tariffs, to the consumer.