How Trump is Losing the Debate Expectations Game

Debates are about beating expectations and Trump is making that easier for Biden

It’s hard to believe, but the first presidential debate is only a few days away. For weeks, I assumed that Trump would wriggle out of the debate for some B.S. reason. The whole thing came together too quickly to go off without a hitch. But as we sit here now, it seems both Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be on stage together in Atlanta on Thursday night. The moderators have been chosen and the rules agreed to. The last wildcard was Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and whether he would qualify for the debate – something both campaigns reportedly opposed. As of this morning, Kennedy Jr. has failed to get on the ballot in enough states to meet CNN’s eligibility requirements.

President Biden’s campaign wanted this debate, on this timeline, with these rules. They wanted to go on offense and turn the race from a referendum on the incumbent into a choice between very different candidates. Pushing for this debate was a high-risk maneuver from the Biden folks, but the dynamics of the race suggest that such a gambit was necessary.

General election debates usually happen later, so it will be hard to judge the magnitude of its influence. However, the debate will likely be the most impactful event of the campaign thus far. Yes, even more impactful than Trump’s felony conviction. The verdict confirmed something voters already knew about Trump. The debate is an opportunity for the President to address voters’ biggest concerns about his candidacy – his age and capacity to do the job.

Long story short: this debate is a nauseatingly big deal.

There are three components to every presidential debate – the pre-debate expectations-setting, the debate itself, and the post-debate spin.  We are in the midst of the first component and Trump, the GOP, and Fox News et al are losing the expectations game.