Is A Blue Wave Coming to Wash Away Trump?
The political environment has never been better for Democrats. So why aren't they doing better?
In a world of non-stop bad news for America and the world, the political news for Democrats has been quite upbeat. Everywhere you look, there are positive signs for the upcoming midterms. Democrats are flipping seats in districts Trump won, and even when we don’t flip the seat, Democratic candidates are dramatically overperforming Kamala Harris’s 2024 numbers. Dems even flipped the Florida state house district that includes Mar-a-Lago. Turnout in Democratic primaries has been through the roof. In Texas, more Democrats voted in the primary than Republicans, even though Republicans outnumber Democrats in the state and there was a high-profile Senate primary on the GOP side. Trump’s poll numbers are putrid. His approval is now under 40%.
From a political — or frankly any — perspective, things couldn’t be going worse for Trump and the Republicans. This is the least popular Trump has ever been, and it’s the worst political environment he has faced in his career.
And yet, per Nate Silver, the generic ballot average is only 5.5 points — about 2 points less than it was in 2018 when the Blue Wave swept in 41 Democrats, and 3 points lower than the Democratic popular vote margin in that election.
This is why so many Democratic strategists remain slightly anxious about the election. A 5.5-point Democratic margin is enough to win the House, but it’s not enough for the Senate, and it’s just less than what it should be given Trump’s numbers, the war, and the state of the economy.
It’s fair to ask: Is the Blue Wave really coming this fall? Or are Democrats about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory again?
