Is J.D. Vance Already Losing the 2028 Primary?
Plus a what Democrats can (and can't) do about Trump's corrupt pardons
Welcome to this week’s mailbag. I was in Washington, DC, for some counter-programming to the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, where Trump made his first appearance as a sitting president.
Let’s get into it.
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Stephen Chamberlin
Obviously the next R POTUS candidates are Vance or Rubio. Is there anyone else you feel may step into the race and is there anyone who stands a chance of winning a primary? Personally I think the best thing Vance can do now for his chances is to resign...
Answer
There are certainly more pressing matters in the world than gaming out the 2028 GOP primary, but it’s a fascinating intellectual exercise that offers a window into the state of today’s Republican Party — and what the subscribers want, the subscribers get.
History would suggest that Vance will almost certainly be the nominee. Sitting vice presidents who run for the nomination tend to win, and win with relative ease. George H.W. Bush and Al Gore are the two most recent examples. Both faced primary challenges but locked up their nominations early.
That said, my confidence that Vance will be the nominee has waned considerably.
