Message Box and the Midterms

A special offer for those who want independent, data-based analysis of the midterms.

It’s an election year.

I won’t tell you this is “the most important election of your lifetime.” You heard that in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2024. At this point, most people tune it out.

But I will tell you this: the 2026 elections are damn important.

Look at what is happening in Minnesota, Maine, and in communities across the country being terrorized by ICE. Look at how Trump is openly lining his own pockets through some of the most brazen corruption in modern American history. He is tearing down public institutions and replacing them with corporate-funded, vanity projects built in his own image. Tariffs are driving up costs for middle- and working-class families, while billionaires and corporations continue to write the rules of government.

We have to win these elections for two reasons.

First: if Democrats take back the House, Trump will not pass another major bill without Hakeem Jeffries’ approval. And if Democrats take the Senate, we can slow—and in some cases stop—Trump’s effort to stack the courts with unqualified, hyper-partisan loyalists.

Second: Republicans must pay a political price for enabling and excusing Trump at every turn. The message has to be unmistakable: if you turn government into a get-rich-quick scheme for the wealthy, empower masked ICE agents to terrorize communities, and rip away people’s health care to fund tax cuts for the rich, you lose your job.

The only way to send that message to the Republican Party is through blunt political force.

There is also real evidence that the political environment is shifting. Last weekend, a Democrat won a Texas state senate seat by 14 points in a district Trump carried by 17 points in 2024.

This year, I will be relentlessly focused on covering the midterms—helping you understand the political trends shaping the environment, how to interpret the flood of polling, and where your time, attention, and money can actually make the most impact.

Message Box is at its best in election years. This is when I can offer real-time analysis grounded in data and in a (very) long career in politics—rather than the recycled, click-driven conventional wisdom that dominates political coverage.

If you upgrade today, you’ll get full access to that analysis, delivered directly to your inbox.

Right now, new paid subscribers can get 20% off Message Box for a full year.

One final thought.

After everything that has happened—after the corruption, the abuse of power, and the normalization of political violence and intimidation—think about the message it would send if Republicans hold on to both the House and the Senate anyway.

Thank you for reading Message Box. It is a genuine privilege to have your attention, and I’m grateful for everything you do—big and small—to support democracy.

— Dan