Making Sense of the Confusing Recent Polling

The polling is all over the map, here's how to think about the state of the race

The last 48 hours left voters with brutal polling whiplash.

On Sunday, two high-profile, well-respected outfits released polls showing Kamala Harris in a commanding position. An NBC News poll showed Kamala jumping out to a 49-44 lead nationally. Harris was buoyed by a 16-point jump in her favorability since the last NBC poll in July. A CBS News/YouGov poll found Harris up four points nationally and an estimated two points in the battleground states due, in part, to improved perceptions of the economy.

That’s all great news and validates Harris’s momentum heading into the homestretch. Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% in 2020, so if Harris is really up six as the NBC poll suggests, she is well on her way to an Electoral College victory.

And then — as they are wont to do — Nate Cohn and his merry band of pollsters at Siena College killed the vibe. On Monday, the New York Times released polls from Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina that showed Trump leading in all three states.

Not great.

Democrats have grown — rightfully — more hopeful about a path to the White House through the Sunbelt states. North Carolina and Georgia are critical if Harris loses Pennsylvania. To get to 270 electoral votes, she needs to win one of those states and one more, possibly including Nevada (which the NYT surprisingly didn’t include in this series of polls).

Democrats were exuberant on Sunday and despondent on Monday. What does it all mean? And how should we feel with 41 days to go in this must-win election?

1. Don’t Obsess Over Individual Polls

The polling is incessant. I get push notifications for all of the polling aggregator sites. My phone is endlessly buzzing with new polls. I look over them and dig deep into the ones that come from the highly rated pollsters. The polls are all over the map; and it’s easy to find a poll to fit your mood. If you want to worry today, look at the poll that has Harris underperforming Biden’s numbers in Minnesota. Looking for a pick-me-up? Check out the new Wisconsin poll that has Harris up seven!