Matt Gaetz and Trump's Misreading of the Election Results

Trump is already making the classic mistake of overreach

Donald Trump won the election less than two weeks ago, and he is not wasting any time rolling out his Cabinet picks. Last time around, Trump’s picks were designed to reassure the Republican establishment that the reality TV star and failed businessman was more serious than his campaign trail demeanor suggested. He named former Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State, General Jim Mattis at the Pentagon, former General John F. Kelly as Secretary of Homeland Security, former Congressman and surgeon Tom Price as Secretary of Health and Human Services. As it turns out, none of these people lasted that long or were particularly good at their jobs. There were exceptions like Betsy DeVos as Education and Jeff Sessions as Attorney General.

But, on paper at least, most of them seemed qualified and were a pretty easy confirmation vote for Republicans. In fact, many of them received bipartisan support.

This time around, Trump’s cabinet choices were designed to trigger everyone in politics not wearing a MAGA hat. For Secretary of Defense, Trump chose Fox and Friends Weekend host Pete Hegseth. Yes, Trump wants to hand control of America’s military to Steve Doocy’s understudy. For Director of National Intelligence, Trump intends to nominate former Democratic Congresswoman turned MAGA celebrity, Tulsi Gabbard, who has little to no experience in intelligence. And finally, and most offensively, Trump picked Congressman Matt Gaetz for Attorney General. Gaetz is a clown, hated by most of his colleagues, and is currently under investigation for allegations that he had sex with a minor. We are on pins and needles waiting to see what job is in store for conspiracy theorist and roadkill enthusiast Robert Kennedy Jr.

These folks are unqualified and will do whatever Trump wants regardless of how kooky or illegal. Prior to the election, if you had tweeted that Trump would pick Gaetz as the nation’s chief law enforcement officer, you would have been ridiculed as a paranoid Resistance Lib.

Republican Senators are already anonymously expressing concerns about having to vote for these lunatics. Trump is making the classic mistake of misreading his mandate and overplaying his hand.

Trump’s Very Limited Mandate

In the last week, there has been much discussion about the scope of Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris. While a Trump victory was always a possibility, Trump winning the popular vote and making gains with nearly every voter group in nearly every part of the country was legitimately shocking. However, we should not overstate the scope of his win. According to the latest estimates from Nate Silver, Trump’s final popular margin will be less than 1.5% and notably, he will fail to win a majority of Americans. This is the smallest winning popular vote margin since 2000 and is smaller than Hillary Clinton’s when she lost the Electoral College. Trump’s victory was part of a global trend of incumbent parties losing post-COVID. When compared to similar elections around the world, Trump’s margin of victory was among the smallest and the least sweeping.