Do I sense a shade of optimism from Dan? With 9 months to go, the map is getting maybe a bit clearer. Although there can always be events that can upend things, Biden team so far has demonstrated discipline and rapid fire incisive witty responses. We have issues that can fire up our base. Abortion. Threats to social safety bet programs. Infrastructure bill wins that have Republicans trying to claim credit for. Continue to expose their hypocrisy and their votes against it. Trump is facing strong legal headwinds. He is showing signs of cracking. By November, he could be a total mess. We need to go for the kill. Turn out the vote in record numbers. But no hand wringing. We can be happy warriors. Good trouble as John Lewis said.
Yes! No time for despair! We can do this. Trump is losing his shit every time we turn around it’s crazy talk. It’s gonna get worse and he can hardly woo the moderate, suburban types.... he’s way too out on the ledge with his insane followers and strap hangers.... so we gotta buckle and do the hard work 👍☕️☕️☕️☕️😉
Trump is a deeply flawed candidate whose strong support has shrunk to his rabid base. That’s not enough to win. As Dan often says, Trump has a high floor but a low ceiling. If we can get the message across that Trump wants to repeal the ACA and punish women who get abortions, he will be toast. It’s going to take a lot of work but I’d very much rather be us than them!
I agree. This is a turnout election. We have 90% of the issues on our side, a few of them with 80% favorable ratings with the public.
Our issues are straightforward and easy to understand: women’s rights, fair taxes, gun safety (and I hope: housing affordability, child poverty, and student debt). It would be nice to put voting rights on the list, but has that become Charlie Brown’s football?)
My friend lives in NH and my daughter goes to college there too. My friend, my daughter and a lot of her friends all switched from Democrat to Independent for the primary so they could vote for Nikki Haley. This might be one reason for the large number of Independents in NH.
Oh Dan, you're giving us more than a hint of optimism.
This analysis underscores the importance of using our time, $, and energy to focus on independent and/or disengaged voters rather than waste our resources arguing with MAGAs. In my experience, that's one of the tougher things to convince friends on - the urge to take it to the MAGAs is so strong. But being able to point to NH to show the fertile ground of independents will help make the argument, and hopefully inspire action with a higher rate of return.
Yes, Dan! And a point you made on Monday's (?) Pod is important: [apparently, I am not on the platform] On the Trump social media channel, he is posting unhinged stuff... Few of us who are left or moderate see that stuff, and the voters should have the information about what he is saying/'doing' in that space. So how does that get better publicized.
This race is winnable. All of us just need to speak out about the truths on our social media networks. And we must continue to remind people that Trump took away our freedom to make our own healthcare choices and he will take away even more of our freedoms if he is elected. It’s simple. Do you want to protect your freedoms? Vote for Biden! Do you want to lose your freedoms and be ruled by a dictator? Vote for Trump
"the universe of Independents who voted last night is a Republican-leaning slice of New Hampshire Independents." - Interesting, I was thinking (perhaps naively) that the opposite was true, that lots of dem-leaning independents came out to try and give Trump a loss, especially since there's no real democratic primary.
Thanks for this thought... I was wondering the same thing. I hope we can find out more about the actual leanings of the Independents who turned out in NH.
Someone above said their daughter and her friends changed from Dems to Independents so they could vote for Haley in the primary. Would be interested to know how many others did the same.
Perhaps I'm an optimistic fool, but here's my take at the beginning of the 2024 race:
No matter what the media pundits are saying about the "horse race", we can be confident that a Biden-Trump rematch is very good for Democrats and a tragedy for what was the GOP. First, Biden is starting this race with an 81 million to 74 million voter lead over Trump. The click bait media can spin the race and spin the polls however it likes. The key question is which candidate will pick up votes and which will shed votes? Biden with a truly American policy agenda or Trump with a personal revenge agenda and no articulated policies? Biden with four years of solid gains for the American people or Trump with four years of chaos, a tax cut for the wealthy and clownish behavior? I'd sure bet on Biden. Second, which candidate has a super energized and growing grassroots movement behind them? Trump surprised the world in 2016 with the fervor of his unrecognized grassroots supporters. But it's looking more and more like that fever has passed, especially among independent voters. Biden's grassroots supporters are just starting to flex their muscle. The 2022/23 interim elections wins are the leading indicator of what the majority of Americans believe. The current Trump/MAGA GOP is on the minority side of so many key issues like gun rights, women's reproductive choices, affordable health care and so on that it will become increasingly clear where the energy driving victory in 2024 is coming from. Us! Third, if we need an another presidential election as an analog, in which good policies for the American people ran against a narrow minded, mean spirited GOP agenda, consider the 1964: Johnson-Goldwater election. Goldwater ran on restraining the Federal government, cutting New Deal benefits, using American power, including nuclear weapons, to protect the country from innumerable enemies. Johnson ran on an American agenda of expanding voting rights, improving infrastructure and national anti-poverty programs. The result? Johnson won in a 61-38 landslide
My husband and I have both had conversations with people that seem to accept Trump winning again as inevitable. We both push back on that and also tell them that there are things we can do to win this race. It drives me bananas that when we tell these people the can phone bank to swing states (*we're in California), they say they don't want to. Especially since two of these people are my "will talk to anyone, makes friends with people on vacation" dad and stepmom. I do not accept that they don't want to phone bank and plan to make them to do. I do not understand the "I think Trump is an authoritarian but won't do anything to stop it" mindset. My theory is that deciding his win is inevitable absolves them of having to do anything.
It’s a name recognition problem. But Biden has also built relationships with world leaders, and we have a better coalition against the Putin led types.
Do I sense a shade of optimism from Dan? With 9 months to go, the map is getting maybe a bit clearer. Although there can always be events that can upend things, Biden team so far has demonstrated discipline and rapid fire incisive witty responses. We have issues that can fire up our base. Abortion. Threats to social safety bet programs. Infrastructure bill wins that have Republicans trying to claim credit for. Continue to expose their hypocrisy and their votes against it. Trump is facing strong legal headwinds. He is showing signs of cracking. By November, he could be a total mess. We need to go for the kill. Turn out the vote in record numbers. But no hand wringing. We can be happy warriors. Good trouble as John Lewis said.
Yes! No time for despair! We can do this. Trump is losing his shit every time we turn around it’s crazy talk. It’s gonna get worse and he can hardly woo the moderate, suburban types.... he’s way too out on the ledge with his insane followers and strap hangers.... so we gotta buckle and do the hard work 👍☕️☕️☕️☕️😉
https://newhampshirebulletin.com/2024/01/23/biden-wins-the-new-hampshire-democratic-primary-without-showing-up/
Trump is a deeply flawed candidate whose strong support has shrunk to his rabid base. That’s not enough to win. As Dan often says, Trump has a high floor but a low ceiling. If we can get the message across that Trump wants to repeal the ACA and punish women who get abortions, he will be toast. It’s going to take a lot of work but I’d very much rather be us than them!
I agree. This is a turnout election. We have 90% of the issues on our side, a few of them with 80% favorable ratings with the public.
Our issues are straightforward and easy to understand: women’s rights, fair taxes, gun safety (and I hope: housing affordability, child poverty, and student debt). It would be nice to put voting rights on the list, but has that become Charlie Brown’s football?)
I believe Biden can win. I"m less worried about Trump than I am of a 3rd party candidate.
My friend lives in NH and my daughter goes to college there too. My friend, my daughter and a lot of her friends all switched from Democrat to Independent for the primary so they could vote for Nikki Haley. This might be one reason for the large number of Independents in NH.
What was their thinking in doing this? Genuine curiosity.
Oh Dan, you're giving us more than a hint of optimism.
This analysis underscores the importance of using our time, $, and energy to focus on independent and/or disengaged voters rather than waste our resources arguing with MAGAs. In my experience, that's one of the tougher things to convince friends on - the urge to take it to the MAGAs is so strong. But being able to point to NH to show the fertile ground of independents will help make the argument, and hopefully inspire action with a higher rate of return.
Yes, Dan! And a point you made on Monday's (?) Pod is important: [apparently, I am not on the platform] On the Trump social media channel, he is posting unhinged stuff... Few of us who are left or moderate see that stuff, and the voters should have the information about what he is saying/'doing' in that space. So how does that get better publicized.
This race is winnable. All of us just need to speak out about the truths on our social media networks. And we must continue to remind people that Trump took away our freedom to make our own healthcare choices and he will take away even more of our freedoms if he is elected. It’s simple. Do you want to protect your freedoms? Vote for Biden! Do you want to lose your freedoms and be ruled by a dictator? Vote for Trump
"the universe of Independents who voted last night is a Republican-leaning slice of New Hampshire Independents." - Interesting, I was thinking (perhaps naively) that the opposite was true, that lots of dem-leaning independents came out to try and give Trump a loss, especially since there's no real democratic primary.
Thanks for this thought... I was wondering the same thing. I hope we can find out more about the actual leanings of the Independents who turned out in NH.
Someone above said their daughter and her friends changed from Dems to Independents so they could vote for Haley in the primary. Would be interested to know how many others did the same.
Perhaps I'm an optimistic fool, but here's my take at the beginning of the 2024 race:
No matter what the media pundits are saying about the "horse race", we can be confident that a Biden-Trump rematch is very good for Democrats and a tragedy for what was the GOP. First, Biden is starting this race with an 81 million to 74 million voter lead over Trump. The click bait media can spin the race and spin the polls however it likes. The key question is which candidate will pick up votes and which will shed votes? Biden with a truly American policy agenda or Trump with a personal revenge agenda and no articulated policies? Biden with four years of solid gains for the American people or Trump with four years of chaos, a tax cut for the wealthy and clownish behavior? I'd sure bet on Biden. Second, which candidate has a super energized and growing grassroots movement behind them? Trump surprised the world in 2016 with the fervor of his unrecognized grassroots supporters. But it's looking more and more like that fever has passed, especially among independent voters. Biden's grassroots supporters are just starting to flex their muscle. The 2022/23 interim elections wins are the leading indicator of what the majority of Americans believe. The current Trump/MAGA GOP is on the minority side of so many key issues like gun rights, women's reproductive choices, affordable health care and so on that it will become increasingly clear where the energy driving victory in 2024 is coming from. Us! Third, if we need an another presidential election as an analog, in which good policies for the American people ran against a narrow minded, mean spirited GOP agenda, consider the 1964: Johnson-Goldwater election. Goldwater ran on restraining the Federal government, cutting New Deal benefits, using American power, including nuclear weapons, to protect the country from innumerable enemies. Johnson ran on an American agenda of expanding voting rights, improving infrastructure and national anti-poverty programs. The result? Johnson won in a 61-38 landslide
My husband and I have both had conversations with people that seem to accept Trump winning again as inevitable. We both push back on that and also tell them that there are things we can do to win this race. It drives me bananas that when we tell these people the can phone bank to swing states (*we're in California), they say they don't want to. Especially since two of these people are my "will talk to anyone, makes friends with people on vacation" dad and stepmom. I do not accept that they don't want to phone bank and plan to make them to do. I do not understand the "I think Trump is an authoritarian but won't do anything to stop it" mindset. My theory is that deciding his win is inevitable absolves them of having to do anything.
Thank you, Dan, for refocusing me with a useful & pragmatic perspective. I feel more hopeful energy
Signed up with Mobilize.us and the Slack for Swing Left, going to join Crooked.com chat, and find the best swing state fund…
It’s a name recognition problem. But Biden has also built relationships with world leaders, and we have a better coalition against the Putin led types.