New NYT Poll Shows How Dems Can Win the Shutdown - and the Majority

A new poll shows Democrats have a roadmap — if they use it.

In the run-up to the government shutdown that began early this morning, we’ve been inundated with polls. Most major polling outfits and media outlets wanted to get something out beforehand to establish a baseline — a way to measure how the shutdown affects perceptions of everyone involved. Most of these polls were interesting, but not particularly informative. They didn’t tell us much we didn’t already know.

But yesterday morning, the New York Times released a fascinating new poll that does shed light on what’s happening in politics right now. A NYT/Siena poll is always an event: they’re an A+ rated pollster, the Times is the most influential traditional media outlet in the country, and Nate Cohn, who runs the poll, tends to ask thoughtful questions that elicit revealing answers.

There’s a lot in this poll. It shows that concern about our politics now exceeds concern about the economy. It finds a remarkable level of skepticism about the country’s ability to solve problems, and dramatic shifts in how people view Israel and the situation in Gaza.

But the headline is that despite everything that’s happened this summer — the blowup over the Epstein files, the deployment of troops to U.S. cities, the assassination of Charlie Kirk, and the effort to silence Jimmy Kimmel — Trump’s approval rating is virtually unchanged from April. The same goes for the generic ballot. All of that Sturm und Drang, and the politics remain stuck. That fact is immensely frustrating for anyone hoping that Trump and his party will face real accountability. Besides, who wants to live in a country where so many people are fine with so much incompetence, corruption, and cruelty?

Still, if you look under the hood, there are some real warning signs for Trump — and a roadmap for Democrats to win the shutdown fight and the majority in 2026

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This Poll Is Not Good News for Trump

Some are treating the lack of movement since April as good news for Trump. His approval rating sits at 43% — down significantly from the start of the year, and in line with his average across two terms. Sure, we’d like to see him sink into the 30s, but that’s unlikely given the size and loyalty of his base.

It’s worth noting: Trump’s approval rating was right around 43% when the GOP lost 41 seats in the 2018 midterms. In Gallup polling, he was at 43% before the 2020 election, when he lost the popular vote by 7 million.