No, a Conviction Wouldn't Make Trump More Popular

Despite Trump's bravado, the polls are clear: going to jail is a political loser

During a typically deranged press conference following his pre-trial hearing, Donald Trump said something particularly insane. Asked by a reporter from ABC News if a conviction could damage his chances for reelection, Trump said, "It could also make me more popular."

These are the rantings of a weak, deeply insecure man hoping to mask his fears of spending his remaining days behind bars. But it’s also how a lot of the political world works. The fact that Trump gained strength in the Republican primary with every subsequent indictment leads some to think that Trump’s victimization schtick is infallible.

Democrats want to see Trump convicted for his crimes, but many are concerned that it will blow up in our face and cause a backlash that puts him in the White House instead of a federal penitentiary.

Former Wall Street Journal Editor-in-Chief Gerard Baker wrote a column in his old paper claiming that “Trump’s Trials Are a Political Gift to His Campaign.” GOP pollster Frank Luntz argued on CNN that the New York Attorney General seizing Trump’s properties to pay off his fine for committing fraud would be a net positive:

If they take his stuff, he’s going to say that this is proof that the federal government and the establishment in the swamp in Washington, and all the politicians across the country and the attorneys generals and all of this, that this is a conspiracy to deny him the presidency. He’s going to go up in the polls just like he went up every single time they indicted him. The indictment, and let’s not talk about whether it’s justified or not, but it will prove the things that he’s saying on the campaign trail, and he will go up, and it may just elect him president. Do not forget that.

This is all reminiscent of the infamous David Brooks column “Did the FBI Just Re-Elect Donald Trump?” after the F.B.I. went to retrieve classified documents from Trump’s house.

Trump’s continued political resilience has caused people to lose control of their faculties. The stakes of this election are so damned high that our anxiety has infected the political chattering class with brain worms.

Of course, Donald Trump getting convicted will not make him more popular. A felony conviction is not a net positive. I don’t care what Trump or any clout-chasing wannabe pundit says. But in case you don’t believe me, here’s the evidence:

The Polls are Crystal Clear

The polls have been all over the map this cycle, but they are consistent on one thing — a conviction is very bad news for Trump.

Gallup recently asked poll respondents about their willingness to vote for certain types of presidential candidates. Only 29% said they would vote for a candidate charged with a felony and only 23% said they would vote for someone convicted of a felony.

Now, it is hard to square those findings with the 40-something percent of Americans who keep telling pollsters that they will vote for Trump. But these findings do speak to the political peril that Trump’s trials present. There is a group of voters who seem okay with voting for an indicted candidate, but a conviction would be the breaking point. In the NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll, Biden is leading Trump by one point. However, when they asked how people would vote if Trump were convicted on criminal charges, Biden’s lead expanded to six points with nearly one in ten Republicans (9%) supporting Biden. Similarly, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found:

One in four self-identified Republicans and about half of independents responding said they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a felony crime by a jury.

In exit polls from the various Republican primaries, 30 to 40% of Republicans said that Trump would not be fit for the presidency if convicted.

That’s all bad news for him without even considering the logistical challenges of spending critical time in the courthouse instead of the campaign trail or the massive drain on resources from using his campaign funds to pay his legal bills.

So Why is This Race Still So Close?

It’s not complicated. We are a deeply divided nation with an Electoral College that skews Republican. Biden has been an excellent President but is governing at a time of higher prices and increasing concern about a seemingly chaotic world. Almost any election would be close, Trump is in the race because he is a Republican running against a Democrat with an approval rating in the low 40’s.

There’s plenty of evidence that Trump — because of his criminality — is underperforming a typical Republican. In the New York Times/Siena poll, Nikki Haley’s lead over Biden is twice as large as Trump’s. Trump is in this race despite his indictments, not because of them (sorry Gerry Baker). And no matter Trump’s bluster, there’s no evidence that a conviction will make him more popular.