Putting the Latest NYT Poll in Perspective

A tough poll lays out the challenges, but also the path forward.

Just when you start feeling slightly better about the 2024 election, the New York Times throws another poll into the mix. Despite a string of unfavorable polls from one of the country’s top-rated polling outfits, the April edition of the New York Times/Siena poll proved good news for Biden. However, Monday’s latest battleground states poll shows the substantial effort ahead. According to the findings:

The surveys by The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Mr. Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin.

While the “Blue Wall” states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are essentially toss-ups, the polls show Trump with significant leads in Nevada (+12), Arizona (+7), and Georgia (+10). Per this poll, Trump has expanded his lead in these states since the last NYT/Siena battleground statepoll last year.

This is not how you want to wake up on a Monday morning. The early reactions from Democrats range from abject panic (“The sky is falling!”) to pure denial (“The NYT hates Joe Biden and must have rigged the poll.”). It goes without saying, but neither of those responses is particularly constructive.

My advice with this and all polls is to take it seriously, but not literally. No poll is flawless; even the most accurate one can’t predict the future. Instead, think of polls as snapshots of how voters feel right now. Focus on the overall trends and significant insights rather than getting caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations. Use the poll data strategically to understand what resonates with voters and how to communicate our message effectively. 

As for the poll causing a stir on social media and cable news, here’s my take: 

1. A Frayed Coalition

On one level, the fact that Donald Trump could win this election after committing multiple crimes, fumbling the response to a pandemic, and attempting to overturn the election through violent means seems incomprehensible. However, there’s a simple explanation on the more fundamental level of voter coalitions. In a head-to-head race, Trump is getting 7% of people who voted for Biden in 2020, and Biden is only getting 2% of 2020 Trump voters. When you include Independent candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and others, Biden only gets 77% of the folks who voted for him in 2020, while Trump gets 87% of his 2020 voters. The anti-MAGA coalition is more prominent but more fractured at this juncture than the MAGA coalition.