I agree with this premise Dan. However, here’s what’s changed since 2012. Given the 10 year trajectory of the changing demographic make-ups of the party coalitions (rural non college v suburban/urban college edu) and increased partisan gerrymandering by GOP legislatures coupled with a maximalist voter suppression strategy, THE GOP CAN NOW WIN WITH ~47%. This has been the case with the Senate for more than 10 years (if you aggregate the national 6 year Senatorial Vote) but now they can win the HOUSE and Presidency with ~47% (and even less of the two party share vote.) For example, in 2020 Democrats retained the House by the narrowest of margins while winning the House popular vote 50.5% - 47.5% (underperforming Biden who won 51.3% - 46.8% and he ONLY won the EC by ~41k votes across three states. If 20k votes don’t go his way, Trump is still POTUS) In 2022, the GOP can win the House with 47% and win the Presidency in 2024 the same way. I KNOW YOU KNOW ALL THIS, and for me it all comes down to “PASS HR1/SR1 or we’re f*cked.”
I agree with this premise Dan. However, here’s what’s changed since 2012. Given the 10 year trajectory of the changing demographic make-ups of the party coalitions (rural non college v suburban/urban college edu) and increased partisan gerrymandering by GOP legislatures coupled with a maximalist voter suppression strategy, THE GOP CAN NOW WIN WITH ~47%. This has been the case with the Senate for more than 10 years (if you aggregate the national 6 year Senatorial Vote) but now they can win the HOUSE and Presidency with ~47% (and even less of the two party share vote.) For example, in 2020 Democrats retained the House by the narrowest of margins while winning the House popular vote 50.5% - 47.5% (underperforming Biden who won 51.3% - 46.8% and he ONLY won the EC by ~41k votes across three states. If 20k votes don’t go his way, Trump is still POTUS) In 2022, the GOP can win the House with 47% and win the Presidency in 2024 the same way. I KNOW YOU KNOW ALL THIS, and for me it all comes down to “PASS HR1/SR1 or we’re f*cked.”
I really appreciate the thought you put into your writing. Clears out the cobwebs!
Excellent piece. Very motivating imo. Thanks Dan!