Why Democrats Can’t Blink on ICE Funding
Plus thoughts on the Texas primary, impeachment and Chuck Schumer's future
Happy Valentine’s Day.
Greetings from Down Under. I’m currently en route to Brisbane for the third stop on Pod Save America’s tour of New Zealand and Australia. I am deeply jet-lagged and have only a vague sense of what day or time it is—but I’m having a great time. Everyone I’ve met here is fascinated by (and more than a little horrified by) American politics.
Before I get into this week’s mailbag, I want to address the shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security that began at midnight—and explain why this is a fight Democrats can, and must, win.
A quick reminder: these mailbags run every Saturday as a special feature for paid subscribers. Subscribe to get full access and drop your questions for future mailbags.
Don’t forget to leave your questions for next week’s mailbag in the comments section.
A Fight Democrats Must Win
Funding for the Department of Homeland Security expired at midnight. A partial government shutdown is now in effect because Democrats refused to vote for a funding bill that included no tangible guardrails on ICE and Border Patrol.
Democrats deserve real credit for taking on this fight so soon after the last shutdown. When the political environment favors us, we tend to slip into a kind of Prevent Defense—take no risks and play not to lose.
This time, Senate Democrats took a big swing because it was morally right—and they did it on the very issue that has historically made them the most nervous.
A year ago, shutting down the Department of Homeland Security over ICE funding would have looked like political suicide. Immigration was Trump’s strongest issue and the one he always leaned on during elections.
But a lot has changed in a year—especially since the killings of Renée Good and Alex Pretti. Immigration is no longer Trump’s strength. It is a vulnerability.
According to Nate Silver’s averages, Trump’s approval rating on immigration is now 12 points underwater.
ICE’s approval rating has dropped roughly 30 points over the past year and now sits about 20 points underwater. Americans increasingly believe ICE is out of control and needs reform. A new NBC poll found:
Nearly three-quarters of respondents say they want U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to be reformed or abolished. Large majorities say immigration officers have gone too far. Sixty-three percent say the federal government has gone too far in disregarding local and state governments, compared with 37 percent who say states and localities have gone too far in disregarding federal authority.
In this fight, Democrats are not defending a fringe position. They are fighting for common-sense reforms that are broadly popular. Strong majorities support:
banning the use of masks;
improving training and enforcement standards;
requiring judicial warrants for arrests and searches; and
stronger oversight of ICE and Border Patrol.
One lesson from the last shutdown is that once Trump and congressional Republicans dig in, they are unlikely to cave—even under intense political pressure. Obamacare tax credits were supported by roughly 80 percent of Americans, including a majority of MAGA voters, and Republicans still refused to budge.
That means Democrats will have to see this fight through. They cannot blink. If that means DHS remains partially shut down through the election, so be it. ICE and CBP already have the funding they need. Democrats are willing to fund the rest of DHS. They are not asking for anything radical; keeping the entire department shuttered is Donald Trump’s choice.
The only way Democrats lose this fight is if they cave when the pressure mounts.
That cannot happen. It would be a historically foolish own goal on the eve of what could be a wave election for Democrats.
David Levin
Hi Dan. I know your position that Dems shouldn’t be pushing for impeachment. But I have to say, George Conway is basically basing his whole campaign on it (“Impeach and Remove!”) and I love it.
Now, maybe that works better in his particular district. But it seems to me that if that’s NOT your position, you simply don’t understand the dangers we’re facing right now. And that’s exactly how I feel about Dems who aren’t being that forceful and direct about it.
Bottom line, even if it’s not all that likely to succeed, isn’t it still maybe the best way to signal that you get what’s going on?
“We simply can not afford two more years of this lawlessness and corruption. We HAVE to get him out now and then make changes to the system to make sure it never happens again.”
Are you SURE that’s not the right message for Dems this cycle? :-)
Answer
I have enough humility at this point not to be absolutely certain about anything. But I do have a high degree of confidence that running on impeachment and removal is not a good strategy.
Trump deserves impeachment. He deserves removal. And he deserves to be held criminally accountable. That does not mean it is the right campaign message.
It’s important to remember the context. George Conway is running in a Democratic primary in a district Kamala Harris won by 64 points. That message may work extremely well for him. That does not mean it works everywhere.
The biggest problem with making impeachment the centerpiece of a campaign is that it promises something Democrats cannot deliver. There is no realistic scenario in which two-thirds of the Senate votes to remove Donald Trump. That is very similar to what happened to Trump when he ran on lowering prices and then failed to do so.
