The Conviction is Costing Trump (Some) Votes

Early polling shows that some voters are changing their mind after last week's verdist

About a week ago, Donald Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts related to his efforts to interfere in the 2016 election. It was a cataclysm with the potential to shake up the entire election. While many exuded palpable joy at the idea of Donald Trump finally being held to account for his crimes,  a sense of fear spread among Democrats who believed the conviction would barely impact the race. That’s understandable — even though Trump lost every election since stumbling ass-backward into the White House in 2016, his ability to survive things that would end most careers is well known.

As the trial came to a close, some people argued that the legal battle had been a net positive for the former President — yes, they believed that an ongoing criminal trial related to covering up an affair with an adult film star would push undecided voters into his camp.

It usually takes a couple of weeks for the full impact of major news events to show up in polling. That timeline might be longer in this instance because so many voters have tuned out political news. However, a decent amount of post-conviction polling is available now and we can get a sense of the initial impact.

And it’s good news (sort of).

1. Voters (Mostly) Trust the Process

Over the past couple of years, there has been a fair amount of cynicism about the various prosecutions of Trump. Pluralities believed that the indictments were about trying to hurt Trump politically. In the most recent New York Times/Siena poll, 49% of voters and a fifth of Biden 2020 voters didn’t believe that Trump could receive a fair trial.

Trump, the GOP, and the MAGA media spent the entire trial calling the judge corrupt and falsely accusing President Biden of pulling the strings. The early polls show they failed to discredit the verdict.