The Democratic Divide That Could Decide 2026 (and 2028)

Disagreement over how to handle Trump is preventing a full-throated response to his power grabs

In my quarter-century in politics, I’m not sure the party has ever been more divided. And it’s not just the typical post-election battle between the left and the moderates over the soul of the party. Democrats are split over President Biden’s legacy, Kamala Harris’s future, why we lost the 2024 election, the New York City mayoral race, and U.S. policy toward the war in Gaza. Heck, the party is even divided over an Ezra Klein book.

Democratic voters are down on the party and disillusioned with its leadership.

These divisions — and the disconnect with the base — are preventing Democrats from mounting a full-throated response to Trump. All of these disputes are significant and will undoubtedly (and perhaps painfully) be litigated in the 2028 Democratic primary, which could include a record number of candidates.

However, there is one divide that will define the near future and shape both the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential race: the divide over the danger Trump poses, and how aggressive Democrats should be in responding to that danger.

Senator Elissa Slotkin has described it as the split between those who see Trump as an existential threat and those who think he is merely “bad, but survivable.”

Put another way: is ordinary politics the right response to Trump, or do Democrats need to do something different?

How various Democrats answer this central question helps explain their actions in the face of Trump’s daily assaults on American society.

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Newsom vs. Whitmer

Perhaps the best way to understand this divide is to look at the recent actions of two high-profile, prospective Democratic presidential candidates: California Governor Gavin Newsom and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.