The Hidden Story: Trump Is Losing the MAGA Base

A 40-point swing in 14 months — and it's not the voters everyone's writing about.

Now that Donald Trump has hit his all-time low in job approval, there is a general consensus that he is up shit’s creek without a paddle. Much of the conversation has been about how the Latinos, working-class voters of color, and young men who powered his 2024 victory have turned on him.

That’s all very true.

The last ones onto the Trump train are the first ones out.

The fact that the coalition Republicans (and a lot of pundits) thought would produce a semi-permanent MAGA majority crumbled within a year is notable (and reassuring).

But this focus on the presidential-year coalition actually understates Trump’s political problem. Right below the surface, an existential threat looms for Republicans in 2026, 2028, and the long term.

White working-class voters have soured on Trump.

It’s not getting nearly enough attention, but Trump’s most reliable voters — the ones that powered his two presidential wins and kept him afloat in turbulent times — are abandoning him in droves.