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The Message Box

The New Jersey Election That Should Terrify the Democratic Establishment

Plus a discussion of immigration reform, Trump's self-defeating opposition to mail ballots and more

Dan Pfeiffer's avatar
Dan Pfeiffer
Feb 07, 2026
∙ Paid

Welcome to this week’s mailbag. There was a genuinely stunning—and mostly overlooked—election result last week. And no, I’m not talking about the special election in Texas. Fortunately, several Message Box subscribers asked about it, so let’s dig in.

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DJ Chapman

What can the NJ-11 result tell us about the weakness of the Democratic establishment? It seems like progressive candidates are doing well even in purple-ish areas

Answer

I want to start by saying this plainly: the New Jersey special Democratic primary to replace Mikie Sherrill is going to send shockwaves through the Democratic establishment. This is the most consequential Democratic primary result since Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeated Joe Crowley in 2018.

Seriously.

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