The Voters Most Likely to Abandon Trump

A new poll shows the fragility of Trumps' coalition

The third week of Donald Trump’s trial in Manhattan is set to begin. The legal experts who understand the ins and outs of Trump’s various trials believe that the testimony of David Pecker, the National Enquirer publisher, was very damaging to Trump’s flimsy defense of his obvious crimes. Because I never went to law school (and you don’t subscribe to this newsletter for legal analysis), I am focused on the politics of the trial. There are questions about how photos of Trump at the defense table affect his public image, whether the revelations are turning off persuadable voters, and the cost of being trapped in a courtroom instead of campaigning in the battleground states. And then, of course, there is the ultimate question of what impact a conviction would have on the election. To that end, CNN released a poll late last week that offered some very interesting details on the voters who could abandon Trump if convicted. The results are fascinating and provide optimism for Democrats even if Trump is acquitted in the case.

Who Are the Conviction-Sensitive Voters?

According to the poll, nearly a quarter of people currently backing Trump say a conviction might cause them to reconsider voting for him. On the one hand, that 76% of voters would happily hand the nuclear codes to a convicted felon is the horrifying reality of the state of American politics. On the other, more optimistic hand, 24% of Trump’s voters possibly abandoning him is a massive number in a highly polarized electorate.