Thoughts on the Michigan Poll Freaking Out Democrats
Why the panic is understandable, why it's overblown, and how Abdul El-Sayed wins anyway.
When this election cycle started, Democrats were pretty damn confident about the Michigan Senate race. Everyone assumed they would win and hold the seat. If there was a Democratic seat to worry about, it was Jon Ossoff’s in Georgia.
Well, now Ossoff’s is seen as a shoo-in, and Democrats are panicking about Michigan. Or maybe I should put it this way: Democrats were nervous until a new Fox News poll dropped on Friday showing Republican Mike Rogers up by four points over Abdul El-Sayed — and now, based on my text messages and notes from Message Box readers, the panic is very real.
I get it. El-Sayed’s electability (or lack thereof) was a major topic of discussion in the campaign. The pro-Haley Stevens side’s closing argument was that El-Sayed was uniquely vulnerable and could cost Democrats an otherwise safe seat. And now we have a poll that seems to prove that exact point. The path to the Senate gets dangerously narrow without Michigan.
I went digging deep into the crosstabs and the history of candidates like El-Sayed to see how much the panic is warranted and to show how and why he should win this race.
