Why Trump Surrendered So Quickly on His Tariff Plan

Some of Trump's most influential online fans are none too happy about the tariffs

After destroying trillions of dollars in wealth, forcing layoffs, and obliterating the economy for nonsensical reasons, Donald Trump paused most of the reciprocal tariffs that went into effect at midnight on Wednesday. The “Golden Age" of America” lasted about 12 hours.

Trump and his craven lackeys are desperately trying to claim victory by citing all of the countries that have reached out to start negotiations. But make no mistake, this is complete and total surrender. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and others incredulously declared that a quick retreat was strategic, but Trump had a moment of honesty during his press conference when asked why he initiated the pause so soon after the tariffs went into effect:

Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippy. They were getting a little bit afraid.

Quick surrender is not really Trump’s style, particularly in his second term. He now faces no visible intra-party opposition and doesn’t have any advisors willing to stand up to him. So why did Trump blink, and what does it tell us about the politics of Trump 2.0?

1. Defcon Zero

Since his surprisingly large (but still relatively small) win, Trump has seemed politically untouchable. He was elected despite being convicted of crimes, indicted for other crimes, and inspiring a violent revolt on the Capitol. Since being elected, Trump has committed countless acts — including pardoning the January 6th rioters and having his aides text about impending military attacks — that would have derailed other presidencies.

But the reaction to the tariffs is proof that Trump cannot defy political gravity. He may not recover from this fall. Trump’s honeymoon was always going to be short-lived but he ended it by unilaterally deciding to crash the economy.

As I wrote last weekend:

A President elected to lower prices and strengthen the economy unilaterally also decides to raise prices, increase the risk of inflation, and torpedo the global economy. This would be like George W. Bush responding to 9/11 by offering the Medal of Freedom to Bin Laden. It’s the exact opposite of what voters want. It’s already hurting Trump, his approval rating is down, and pessimism about the economy is increasing.

Recent polling shows the path of damage from these tariffs. Right before Trump waved the white flag, Quinnipiac University released yet another horrendous poll for Trump. According to the survey:

• Trump’s approval rating is down to 41%;

• His economic approval is 40%; and

• 72% of voters think the tariffs will hurt the U.S. economy.

These numbers are from before anyone started paying higher prices. If the tariffs had continued with the ensuing economic damage, Trump’s presidency might have collapsed within a month.

2. The Revolt of the Influencers

Trump has proven time and again that he can easily survive bad press from mainstream media outlets. Getting hammered by the New York Times and CNN may even strengthen Trump with some of his supporters. What he can’t survive is a revolt of the influencers who helped elect him. And that’s exactly what happened over the last several days; and then the market crashed.

Let’s start with Dave Portnoy, the founder of Barstool Sports and someone with a huge fanbase of young men. Portnoy has been pro-Trump for a while. He interviewed him in 2020 and publicly supported him in 2024. He is also an investing influencer, often posting videos about his day-trading. Having invested millions in the market, Portnoy is none too pleased with Trump right now. On Monday, he began a live stream by tearing into Trump over the tariffs and saying that the economy is “in the shitter.”

Adin Ross is one of the most popular streamers alive. He built his following on Twitch before getting kicked off the platform for hateful speech. He is also very pro-Trump and interviewed Trump in August of 2024. Like Portnoy, Ross is rich. His money is tied up in the market, and he too is distressed by the economic turmoil. He recently complained about Trump’s tariffs during a live stream.

Ben Shapiro is an influencer of a different ilk than Ross and Portnoy. He is explicitly political and doesn’t exactly scream “bro.” Nevertheless, he does have a large following. Shapiro didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 but reluctantly supported him in 2020. By 2024, Shapiro was fully on board. He promoted Trump and conducted a fawning interview of the former president on his podcast. Last week, Shapiro went nuts about the stupidity of Trump’s tariffs.

Elon Musk is not exactly an influencer, but he does have a massive following, and his biggest fans are young men. As the world’s richest man and a former Democrat who was a vocal supporter of Barack Obama, Musk’s backing was key for Trump. Musk greenlighting Trump’s economic prowess was good enough for a lot of previously skeptical voters. Well, even Musk — a Trump staffer who gave hundreds of millions to the campaign — doesn’t love the tariffs. Musk has been posting on X about why the tariffs are bad and attacking Peter Navarro, Trump’s top trade adviser, referring to him as “dumber than a sack of rocks.”

The revolt of these key influencers who decided the election for Trump is a huge problem that Trump had to solve.

3. Trump is Not Out of the Woods Yet

The stock market clearly loves the surrender, touting huge gains within minutes of the announcement. Goldman Sachs rescinded their recession call after the pause. But Trump and America are not out of the woods yet. To save face, Trump jacked up tariffs on goods from China to 125%. Now, voters support a trade war with China, our adversary, more than allies like Canada and Mexico. This will have massive consequences for American consumers. But they really do not want to pay higher prices. Many products — particularly electronics and toys — are imported from China.

There are still plenty of other tariffs in place, as this chart from the New York Times shows:

China, Mexico, and Canada account for more than 40% of American imports. Costs will skyrocket, and people are unhappy. And let’s not forget this is only a 90-day pause; we could be back in the same place in three months.

4. The Lasting Impact

From a political perspective, Trump likely did some lasting damage to himself and his party. Because of his wealth, his stint playing a businessman on reality TV, and nostalgia for the economy of his first term, Trump is viewed by many voters as someone who can successfully steer the economy. It's why he won the election. So many voters swallowed their concerns about his conduct, character, and policies on issues because they trusted him to lower costs.

The pure chaos of the last week on an issue that broke through like no other has undermined the central premise of Trump’s political identity. He looked crazy and incompetent. His advisors had no idea what they were doing.

The Republican Party looked feckless. Almost no one dared to speak out against Trump’s incompetence.

It’s going to be very hard to erase that image from people’s minds.