Many of the Americans who voted for Biden in 2020 are somewhere between worry and terror that he might lose the presidency to Donald Trump in November. I am reasonably confident Joe Biden will win in November.
Here are my reasons for optimism:
While polls represent the opinion of a small number of voters at a fixed point in time, elections are a full expression of voters’ decision between candidates. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by 81 million to 74 million votes. Since then, pollsters, especially Nate Cohn’s NYTimes Siena poll, has created an intentionally misleading outlook for Biden in 2024.
Biden’s 2020 victory resulted from a choice by the majority of Americans to bring back responsible government, a forward-looking American agenda and reject Trump’s erratic, mean spirited, self-serving politics. The Trump of 2024 represents a more dangerous threat than he did in 2020. In addition to his constant lies, Trump is a rapist, a convicted felon, a financial fraudster, a threat to America’s national security, an election cheat and perhaps senile. So why would any of the 81 million Biden voters abandon him this November to vote for Trump or not vote? THEY WON’T. More likely, as the benefits of his policies become more widely recognized, Biden will pick up rather than lose voters to Trump.
However, ignoring the reality of Biden’s fundamental popularity, analysts and journalists daily warn Democrats that we should be very worried about losing for two reasons. First, Biden’s low popularity in the polls. Second, the president has old guy vibes and looks frail on TV.
Happily, Biden’s poll numbers have started rising in June. However, it’s hard to overstate the damage done to Biden’s campaign and the confidence of Democrats by the anti-Biden, gaslighting, New York Times/Sienna poll. Starting in 2023, the Times consistent election “story line” described Biden’s presidency as failing with low approval ratings. The Times poll results are widely quoted as national election “facts” by journalists across all media empowering “shock” news articles about Biden’s low prospects in 2024. The monthly drumbeat of negative Biden news has created an atmosphere of fear, dread and panic among Democrats, aided Trump’s dominance over the GOP and spread joy across the MAGA world.
How does the NYTimes poll mislead the public? By overcounting Trump-biased, MAGA participant groups in rural America. Its poll data is NOT a balanced picture of the political reality in America today but rather a snapshot of MAGA America. The Times polls include a significantly greater % of rural voters than can be justified by the demographics of America’s voting population. 22% of Americans live in rural counties. However, the Times poll has typically included 35% or more rural respondents, an overweighting of 59% in Trump America where he won in 2020 with 60% to 38% of the vote. To realistically interpret the Times polling data, Liberals should assume its polls and the journalists who quote it, are describing MAGA America, not the America where the majority of Biden’s 81 million voters live. It seems of late even Nate Cohn is waking up to his statistical aberration.
On a positive note, the Times poll results in May show Biden gaining ground. He’s leading in in Wisconsin and very close in 4 out of 5 others; VERY encouraging results for Joe Biden in a MAGA biased poll. If the Times adjusted its poll to 22% rural respondents, Biden would be ahead in 5 out of 6 swing states!
An interesting fact from the Times poll that Nate Cohn and the journalists NEVER report is that 70%-80% of all voters in swing states are “satisfied” or “somewhat satisfied” with their situation in America today. Journalist repeatedly report that the majority are very dissatisfied with Biden because of inflation. After all, who likes inflation? But, perhaps, most voters in the Times poll think the effect of inflation is not ruining their life and might not be a major factor in November.
Biden’s age as a competitive disadvantage compared to Trump defies reality as both candidates are much older than the traditional age for a presidential candidate. In November, voters will face a binary decision based on the current behavior and mental capacity of either candidate. One candidate is executing the responsibilities of the presidency every day. He is successfully fighting wars in the Ukraine, in Israel, against MAGA extremism and to reduce inflation. That candidate is executing policies to reshore critical tech industries and reduce the effects of global warming. At the same time, he’s able to run an aggressive presidential campaign and lead powerful alliances in Asia and Europe to support democracy for the long term.
The other candidate grows more horrifyingly unattractive every day. That candidate seems to be running on an unrecognizable vision of American decline in a dystopian Zombie movie, entertaining to some of his MAGA base but far from the outlook of most Americans. How many of us are worried about electrocution vs. shark attacks?
If it wasn’t obvious at the beginning of 2020, it is now undeniable; Joe Biden is a true American political genius. We should be joyfully happy that Biden is willing to give the country another 4 years. We all need to work our tales off to get him elected.
If only Republican political leaders weren’t so stupid… after they helped push Nixon to resign, they had the presidency four years later. The public didn’t blame the party, they blamed Nixon himself. There were a few Nixon apologists, but they were viewed as an aberration.
But these days, the whole party—with very few notable exceptions—bows and scrapes publicly to a gaslighting coward, con man, and convicted crook. They look weak, power-mad and corrupt.
I think Biden will win. I believe a LOT of Dem voters are ready to work hard as volunteers; some already are. I believe that a lot of Dem voters are quietly determined to vote for Biden and may not be answering polls. I think there’s a big crowd of committed single issue voters (whether abortion, guns or freedom) who will come out to the polls. And Dems have never had the bigger crowd of single issue voters. And I believe there are a lot of people who would never vote to restore a convicted crook to the White House.
I hope that most of the thousands of Dan’s readers are volunteering for the election.
I agree. I hope so too. For example, I heard a man say on NPR this weekend that he was angry at Biden because interest rates "might" go up again this year--and this was bad for his particular business. So--he was going to vote for Trump. Jeepers! There are people who are begging for permission to vote for Trump--in spite of everything. The reactions of people like J.D. Vance after the criminal conviction of DJT reveals a boot licking insanity that apparently is impervious to shame. So--Dems need to quit apologizing and commiserating--and lean in to a great economy--and all of those single issues you describe.
It seems that some people try to give what they think is a "smart" or "intellectual-sounding" reason for voting for TFG. Either these folks refuse to make an effort to really look at how their choice would play out if he wins, or they don't want to admit that they find some kind of perverse excitement in supporting a "bad boy" for president.
You do have to wonder at the fascination for vulgarity. Trump captures something I found best expressed by Sherrilyn Ifill, (Howard University Law Professor, President & Counsel of the NAACP Legal Defense Fund) quoted by Rachel Maddow in her interview for her podcast ULTRA. Professor Ifill said the following: "And this is where Trump becomes an accelerant, right, because what Trump did was he tapped into something that I think many of us didn’t realize many white people were experiencing, which was they just wanted to be free of all of this. They wanted to be free of the requirements of decency, free of the requirements of embracing a belief in equality, free of having to speak in a way that shows respect for others, that all of this, it turns out, felt unbearable for a segment of the white population." I can't get over this core, illuminating observation: "THEY WANTED TO BE FREE OF THE REQUIREMENTS OF DECENCY." For me--Ifill explains what we face.
It is clear that Trump’s lead is based on two things: dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs (hard to really change that—even if the Fed hits its target on inflation, prices won’t go down, they’ll just stop going up) and the memory of how things were before the pandemic, when Trump was president. People have this crazy idea that if Trump wins, we will magically go back to the 2019 economy (and prices!). A moment’s actual thought should be enough to realize that this is absurd, but most people don’t want to think about it. In the fall, I think, they will have to think about it. I would be optimistic that people right now are more focussed on making it clear that they are unhappy with Biden, but aren’t yet ready to think about what actually electing Trump would mean—when the prospect of that is actually staring them in the face, they’ll think better of it.
I do think what the Biden campaign needs to emphasize is that Democrats are the ones who truly represent a return to the good ol’ days, because “progress” is not what people are looking for now—Americans know they had it good before and want to go back to that, and honestly Biden is much better for representing America’s past (the New Deal, the Civil Rights Act, the moon landing, all the good things Democrats have done) than Trump, who is truly unlike any president of either party, and especially this time out, will be like nothing we’ve ever seen before—in a very, very bad way. Trump promises not to “make American great again” but to make America just another sh*thole country (like Trevor Noah warned us in 2016, comparing Trump to African dictators).
The worst part is that 2019 was a crazy town of Trump chaos, mismanagement, and the gutting of the government. And--an economic sugar high from a tax cut that went to the wealthy--and virtually nowhere else. I do not yearn for a nostalgic return to the days of "good people on both sides," family separation at the borders, Muslim bans, and "shithole countries."
I think part of the Biden resistance is that some are exhausted by the rate of social change in our country. All of it positive, but there are always people for whom change itself is bad.
We all lived through this in the late 60s and somehow the country adjusted. But there are still people complaining bitterly over the changes made then: female empowerment, civil right and voting rights and the ability of ordinary people to demonstrate and blunt the power of government to pursue an unjust war.
If I'm a company who would love to see my tax rate cut, and know that prices are hurting Biden—prices he has basically no control over whatsoever, no matter what voters think—why wouldn't I raise prices (gaining additional short-term profits) in order to lean into that unhappiness and try to achieve a more favorable outcome for the company and, one assumes, the C-suite?
Thanks Dan. You know--the press can quit saying that the claim of "9% inflation rate" made by the Biden Admistration is "false." But--oh well. It is not so much a "false claim" (to my mind) as much as it is the truth about the rate spike due to COVID. It is the rate Biden was stuck with due to the pandemic. Thereafter inflation has fallen to 3% ...which is also true. In 1980, Ronald Reagan came in during high inflation and he managed to bring the rate down but he also sat on high unemployment and job losses. Still--Reagan claimed success through his efforts to cut everything he could lay his hands on--which saw the economy grow, but created all sorts of misery and bad policy. We need to talk about the U.S. that is the best economy in the world, right now, and in fact, the world needs the U.S. to help carry everyone else along with us.
I read somewhere -- not sure I believe it -- that Trump wants to junk the income tax altogether and move entirely to tariff increases to fund the government... the figures I saw were something like 120 - 130% taxes on any imported goods. Average families would be paying something like $5000 dollars more in taxes every year. The report also noted that if payroll taxes were discontinued, Social Security and Medicare would be drastically affected. In fact, this move would basically defund both programs. I'm going to see if I can find out more information about this proposed idea.
Whenever I see numbers in which the overall reaction is skewed by a heavy reaction in one direction by one side, I wonder what the reaction of the other side is. For instance, when you single out non-college voters, I wonder what the percentage is among college voters.
I have lived in the South for 70 years. I have heard a lot of delusional lies about the Confederacy losing, but I have never heard anyone claim it was lack of trying.
I think you may singularly inhabit your own Venn diagram.
Why are you so pissed because I choose to vote for the presumptive nominee for the Dem party?
You seem to lose your temper quickly, in fact, when anyone here challenges your thinking. You are entitled to your opinion, but calling Biden “Genocide Joe” and calling people who support him clowns, sheep or fools is just inviting people to treat you as a troll.
Your idée fixe seems to campaign finance. I think most of us would agree with you. But as more than a few of us have pointed out, months before an election is the exact wrong time to try to make a change. All democrats could do at this point is to unilaterally disarm, and all that would do is lose the election.
It’s also no time to substitute candidates, especially when no other candidate has indicated they want to run.
The “singular inhabitant of your own Venn Diagram” was by no means an insult. It was an observation that what you say you want (no Biden/Harris and immediate campaign reform) are on no one else’s mind as a workable idea.
As for the hysteria, I was serious. Read your own comments in your final three paragraphs.
Why I am Hopeful that Joe Biden will Win
Many of the Americans who voted for Biden in 2020 are somewhere between worry and terror that he might lose the presidency to Donald Trump in November. I am reasonably confident Joe Biden will win in November.
Here are my reasons for optimism:
While polls represent the opinion of a small number of voters at a fixed point in time, elections are a full expression of voters’ decision between candidates. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by 81 million to 74 million votes. Since then, pollsters, especially Nate Cohn’s NYTimes Siena poll, has created an intentionally misleading outlook for Biden in 2024.
Biden’s 2020 victory resulted from a choice by the majority of Americans to bring back responsible government, a forward-looking American agenda and reject Trump’s erratic, mean spirited, self-serving politics. The Trump of 2024 represents a more dangerous threat than he did in 2020. In addition to his constant lies, Trump is a rapist, a convicted felon, a financial fraudster, a threat to America’s national security, an election cheat and perhaps senile. So why would any of the 81 million Biden voters abandon him this November to vote for Trump or not vote? THEY WON’T. More likely, as the benefits of his policies become more widely recognized, Biden will pick up rather than lose voters to Trump.
However, ignoring the reality of Biden’s fundamental popularity, analysts and journalists daily warn Democrats that we should be very worried about losing for two reasons. First, Biden’s low popularity in the polls. Second, the president has old guy vibes and looks frail on TV.
Happily, Biden’s poll numbers have started rising in June. However, it’s hard to overstate the damage done to Biden’s campaign and the confidence of Democrats by the anti-Biden, gaslighting, New York Times/Sienna poll. Starting in 2023, the Times consistent election “story line” described Biden’s presidency as failing with low approval ratings. The Times poll results are widely quoted as national election “facts” by journalists across all media empowering “shock” news articles about Biden’s low prospects in 2024. The monthly drumbeat of negative Biden news has created an atmosphere of fear, dread and panic among Democrats, aided Trump’s dominance over the GOP and spread joy across the MAGA world.
How does the NYTimes poll mislead the public? By overcounting Trump-biased, MAGA participant groups in rural America. Its poll data is NOT a balanced picture of the political reality in America today but rather a snapshot of MAGA America. The Times polls include a significantly greater % of rural voters than can be justified by the demographics of America’s voting population. 22% of Americans live in rural counties. However, the Times poll has typically included 35% or more rural respondents, an overweighting of 59% in Trump America where he won in 2020 with 60% to 38% of the vote. To realistically interpret the Times polling data, Liberals should assume its polls and the journalists who quote it, are describing MAGA America, not the America where the majority of Biden’s 81 million voters live. It seems of late even Nate Cohn is waking up to his statistical aberration.
On a positive note, the Times poll results in May show Biden gaining ground. He’s leading in in Wisconsin and very close in 4 out of 5 others; VERY encouraging results for Joe Biden in a MAGA biased poll. If the Times adjusted its poll to 22% rural respondents, Biden would be ahead in 5 out of 6 swing states!
An interesting fact from the Times poll that Nate Cohn and the journalists NEVER report is that 70%-80% of all voters in swing states are “satisfied” or “somewhat satisfied” with their situation in America today. Journalist repeatedly report that the majority are very dissatisfied with Biden because of inflation. After all, who likes inflation? But, perhaps, most voters in the Times poll think the effect of inflation is not ruining their life and might not be a major factor in November.
Biden’s age as a competitive disadvantage compared to Trump defies reality as both candidates are much older than the traditional age for a presidential candidate. In November, voters will face a binary decision based on the current behavior and mental capacity of either candidate. One candidate is executing the responsibilities of the presidency every day. He is successfully fighting wars in the Ukraine, in Israel, against MAGA extremism and to reduce inflation. That candidate is executing policies to reshore critical tech industries and reduce the effects of global warming. At the same time, he’s able to run an aggressive presidential campaign and lead powerful alliances in Asia and Europe to support democracy for the long term.
The other candidate grows more horrifyingly unattractive every day. That candidate seems to be running on an unrecognizable vision of American decline in a dystopian Zombie movie, entertaining to some of his MAGA base but far from the outlook of most Americans. How many of us are worried about electrocution vs. shark attacks?
If it wasn’t obvious at the beginning of 2020, it is now undeniable; Joe Biden is a true American political genius. We should be joyfully happy that Biden is willing to give the country another 4 years. We all need to work our tales off to get him elected.
Interesting. That’s how I feel about the polling and your breakdown is enlightening.
If only Republican political leaders weren’t so stupid… after they helped push Nixon to resign, they had the presidency four years later. The public didn’t blame the party, they blamed Nixon himself. There were a few Nixon apologists, but they were viewed as an aberration.
But these days, the whole party—with very few notable exceptions—bows and scrapes publicly to a gaslighting coward, con man, and convicted crook. They look weak, power-mad and corrupt.
I think Biden will win. I believe a LOT of Dem voters are ready to work hard as volunteers; some already are. I believe that a lot of Dem voters are quietly determined to vote for Biden and may not be answering polls. I think there’s a big crowd of committed single issue voters (whether abortion, guns or freedom) who will come out to the polls. And Dems have never had the bigger crowd of single issue voters. And I believe there are a lot of people who would never vote to restore a convicted crook to the White House.
I hope that most of the thousands of Dan’s readers are volunteering for the election.
I agree. I hope so too. For example, I heard a man say on NPR this weekend that he was angry at Biden because interest rates "might" go up again this year--and this was bad for his particular business. So--he was going to vote for Trump. Jeepers! There are people who are begging for permission to vote for Trump--in spite of everything. The reactions of people like J.D. Vance after the criminal conviction of DJT reveals a boot licking insanity that apparently is impervious to shame. So--Dems need to quit apologizing and commiserating--and lean in to a great economy--and all of those single issues you describe.
It seems that some people try to give what they think is a "smart" or "intellectual-sounding" reason for voting for TFG. Either these folks refuse to make an effort to really look at how their choice would play out if he wins, or they don't want to admit that they find some kind of perverse excitement in supporting a "bad boy" for president.
You do have to wonder at the fascination for vulgarity. Trump captures something I found best expressed by Sherrilyn Ifill, (Howard University Law Professor, President & Counsel of the NAACP Legal Defense Fund) quoted by Rachel Maddow in her interview for her podcast ULTRA. Professor Ifill said the following: "And this is where Trump becomes an accelerant, right, because what Trump did was he tapped into something that I think many of us didn’t realize many white people were experiencing, which was they just wanted to be free of all of this. They wanted to be free of the requirements of decency, free of the requirements of embracing a belief in equality, free of having to speak in a way that shows respect for others, that all of this, it turns out, felt unbearable for a segment of the white population." I can't get over this core, illuminating observation: "THEY WANTED TO BE FREE OF THE REQUIREMENTS OF DECENCY." For me--Ifill explains what we face.
It is clear that Trump’s lead is based on two things: dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs (hard to really change that—even if the Fed hits its target on inflation, prices won’t go down, they’ll just stop going up) and the memory of how things were before the pandemic, when Trump was president. People have this crazy idea that if Trump wins, we will magically go back to the 2019 economy (and prices!). A moment’s actual thought should be enough to realize that this is absurd, but most people don’t want to think about it. In the fall, I think, they will have to think about it. I would be optimistic that people right now are more focussed on making it clear that they are unhappy with Biden, but aren’t yet ready to think about what actually electing Trump would mean—when the prospect of that is actually staring them in the face, they’ll think better of it.
I do think what the Biden campaign needs to emphasize is that Democrats are the ones who truly represent a return to the good ol’ days, because “progress” is not what people are looking for now—Americans know they had it good before and want to go back to that, and honestly Biden is much better for representing America’s past (the New Deal, the Civil Rights Act, the moon landing, all the good things Democrats have done) than Trump, who is truly unlike any president of either party, and especially this time out, will be like nothing we’ve ever seen before—in a very, very bad way. Trump promises not to “make American great again” but to make America just another sh*thole country (like Trevor Noah warned us in 2016, comparing Trump to African dictators).
The worst part is that 2019 was a crazy town of Trump chaos, mismanagement, and the gutting of the government. And--an economic sugar high from a tax cut that went to the wealthy--and virtually nowhere else. I do not yearn for a nostalgic return to the days of "good people on both sides," family separation at the borders, Muslim bans, and "shithole countries."
I think part of the Biden resistance is that some are exhausted by the rate of social change in our country. All of it positive, but there are always people for whom change itself is bad.
We all lived through this in the late 60s and somehow the country adjusted. But there are still people complaining bitterly over the changes made then: female empowerment, civil right and voting rights and the ability of ordinary people to demonstrate and blunt the power of government to pursue an unjust war.
That is so true. When I think of all the things that have changed so very quickly in the last decade, it is amazing.
If I'm a company who would love to see my tax rate cut, and know that prices are hurting Biden—prices he has basically no control over whatsoever, no matter what voters think—why wouldn't I raise prices (gaining additional short-term profits) in order to lean into that unhappiness and try to achieve a more favorable outcome for the company and, one assumes, the C-suite?
Good question.
Thanks Dan. You know--the press can quit saying that the claim of "9% inflation rate" made by the Biden Admistration is "false." But--oh well. It is not so much a "false claim" (to my mind) as much as it is the truth about the rate spike due to COVID. It is the rate Biden was stuck with due to the pandemic. Thereafter inflation has fallen to 3% ...which is also true. In 1980, Ronald Reagan came in during high inflation and he managed to bring the rate down but he also sat on high unemployment and job losses. Still--Reagan claimed success through his efforts to cut everything he could lay his hands on--which saw the economy grow, but created all sorts of misery and bad policy. We need to talk about the U.S. that is the best economy in the world, right now, and in fact, the world needs the U.S. to help carry everyone else along with us.
Well done
Yes.
I read somewhere -- not sure I believe it -- that Trump wants to junk the income tax altogether and move entirely to tariff increases to fund the government... the figures I saw were something like 120 - 130% taxes on any imported goods. Average families would be paying something like $5000 dollars more in taxes every year. The report also noted that if payroll taxes were discontinued, Social Security and Medicare would be drastically affected. In fact, this move would basically defund both programs. I'm going to see if I can find out more information about this proposed idea.
Whenever I see numbers in which the overall reaction is skewed by a heavy reaction in one direction by one side, I wonder what the reaction of the other side is. For instance, when you single out non-college voters, I wonder what the percentage is among college voters.
I have lived in the South for 70 years. I have heard a lot of delusional lies about the Confederacy losing, but I have never heard anyone claim it was lack of trying.
I think you may singularly inhabit your own Venn diagram.
I am afraid you’ve become hysterical. Perhaps some calming breaths.
Why are you so pissed because I choose to vote for the presumptive nominee for the Dem party?
You seem to lose your temper quickly, in fact, when anyone here challenges your thinking. You are entitled to your opinion, but calling Biden “Genocide Joe” and calling people who support him clowns, sheep or fools is just inviting people to treat you as a troll.
Your idée fixe seems to campaign finance. I think most of us would agree with you. But as more than a few of us have pointed out, months before an election is the exact wrong time to try to make a change. All democrats could do at this point is to unilaterally disarm, and all that would do is lose the election.
It’s also no time to substitute candidates, especially when no other candidate has indicated they want to run.
The “singular inhabitant of your own Venn Diagram” was by no means an insult. It was an observation that what you say you want (no Biden/Harris and immediate campaign reform) are on no one else’s mind as a workable idea.
As for the hysteria, I was serious. Read your own comments in your final three paragraphs.
You really are a pompous jerk!
This is a site for people who are working to re-elect Biden. I am honestly wondering why you're on this site.
https://endcitizensunited.org/latest-news/press-releases/end-citizens-united-let-america-vote-endorses-president-biden/
https://www.americanprogressaction.org/topic/the-biden-economy/
https://www.ft.com/content/ea10c85a-3cda-4bee-8cb2-b0259af478ee
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/06/11/globally-biden-receives-higher-ratings-than-trump/?utm_source=Pew+Research+Center&utm_campaign=951bac5661-Weekly_6-15-24&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-951bac5661-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D
Really? POLITICO? That's a humdinger.