What We Just Learned About the Battle for the House

The special election in Tennessee was a dry run for the midterms.

Republicans are putting on a brave face about their closer-than-expected win in the special election in Tennessee’s 7th District. Sure, their candidate won by nine points — but this is a district Trump carried by 22 points. Matt Van Epps, the Republican nominee, was a very strong candidate. The GOP had a spending advantage. And while Aftyn Behn, the Democrat, ran a vigorous race, she was a poor ideological fit for this very red district.

Earlier this year, Republicans (and some in the media) dismissed strong Democratic showings in special elections by pointing out the low turnout. The argument — which has some merit — is that Democrats tend to do better when fewer people vote. That helps explain why Democrats overperformed in specials in 2023 and 2024 but still lost the presidential race.

But Tuesday’s election in Tennessee was not a low-turnout special. The turnout was shockingly high — roughly on par with the 2022 midterms.

That midterm-level turnout makes this result far more instructive than your typical special election. The race drew big money and national attention. It was highly nationalized — just like the midterms will be. Tennessee-7 was about as close to a simulation of next year’s midterms as we’re going to get.

With this special election in the rearview mirror, now is a good time to assess how the midterms are shaping up.

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The Blessing and the Curse of Trump Electorally

Here’s how Republicans have performed in major elections since Trump won in 2016:

• 2017: Democrats win the NJ and VA governor’s races by large margins

• 2018: Democrats pick up 41 House seats

• 2019: Democrats win the Kentucky governorship

• 2020: Democrats win the White House and Senate; Republicans gain 14 House seats

• 2021: Republicans win the Virginia governorship

• 2022: Democrats hold the Senate and overperform expectations (but lose the House)

• 2024: Republicans win the White House, take the Senate, and hold the House

Republicans have had only three good elections since 2016 — and Trump was on the ballot for two of them. The 2021 Virginia race was the exception, but the environment and the state’s history heavily favored the GOP.