What's More Accurate, Prediction Markets or Polls?
Plus Kamala Harris's 2028 strategy, Schumer's struggles, and PR advice for reality TV stars
Welcome to this week’s mailbag. Lots of great questions this week, so lets get right into it.
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Bethany Reynolds
What’s your take on the accuracy and value of prediction markets vs. traditional polling? And should we be wary of prediction markets affecting outcomes, either by driving campaign strategies or influencing voter behavior?
Answer
I get some version of this question all the time (including from Bethany on multiple occasions!). To date, I have resisted putting it in a mailbag because of the topic’s complexity and importance.
But there is no time like the present (and as I have said many times before, the subscribers are always right).
There has been an inherent and understandable skepticism about polls for the last decade, particularly among Democrats. The polling misled us to think that Trump couldn’t win in 2016 and that Biden would romp in 2020. In both cases, the polls underestimated Trump’s support.
So it’s understandable that people are looking for a more accurate alternative. But are prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket the answer? Are they more accurate or even as accurate as polls?
