Where the Race Stands with 67 Days to Go

A breakdown of the key elements of a campaign where so much has happened -- and will still happen.

The homestretch is here. We are 67 days from the election and a little more than a week from the first (and maybe last) absolutely critical debate. In the last couple of months, we have seen: Trump’s conviction, the debate, an assassination attempt, a change in candidates, two conventions, and two vice presidential selections. 

A lot can and will happen between now and the election, but with the exuberance of the convention behind us and the anxiety of the debate more than a week away, I thought it made sense to take stock of the state of the race.

1. The Polls Have Moved in Harris’s Direction

According to the New York Times polling average, Kamala Harris was trailing Trump by 5 points at the outset of her campaign against Trump. Today, she is up by 3 points.

That’s a remarkable swing in a relatively short period, especially in a race where one of the candidates is a former president with 100% name ID. The dramatic change is a product of Harris’s remarkable performance. FiveThirtyEight has her lead at 3.5%. Other polling averages have the race a little closer. The Cook Political Report has Harris up by a point.

Her lead could grow in the coming days if she can get a bounce out of her convention, but convention bounces have been largely non-existent in recent cycles. According to data compiled by Eli McKown Dawson for Silver Bulletin, the average convention bounce during the last three elections has been 1.1%.

As listeners of Pollercoaster — my polling-focused podcast for Crooked Media — have heard me say ad nauseam,  a poll that has a candidate up a few points and one that has them down a few points say the same thing. The race is a tossup.

2. The Map is Favorable, But There’s Work to Do

National polls tell us little. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2 points and lost the White House. Biden won it by 4 points and won the White House by a grand total of 40,000 votes spread out over a few states.