Why Bombing Iran Won't Help Trump's Sinking Poll Numbers

Understanding why Trump's poll numbers are sinking again

The prevailing political narrative is often a lagging indicator of reality. At the beginning of Trump’s second term, the conventional wisdom held that he was triumphant and astride the world stage, despite entering office with historically low approval ratings that began to drop the moment he took the oath of office. Trump’s approval rating quickly plummeted, but it wasn’t until the tariff debacle that the political conversation caught up to the reality of Trump’s political weakness.

With tariffs fading from the political conversation and intense focus shifting to immigration and protests in Blue cities, Trump’s numbers bounced back to their historically mediocre level. The narrative was that Trump was once again ascendant.

Well, after a particularly tumultuous couple of weeks, Trump’s numbers are down again. Since an unpopular Trump increases Democrats’ chances of winning in the midterms, it’s worth unpacking why Trump’s numbers are down and why bombing Iran won’t help him, so that we can develop strategies on how to keep them there.

1. What the Numbers Say

Trump started his second term with the best numbers of his political career. During his first term, Trump was the only president in history to never have an approval rating over 50%. While this rating was high for Trump, it was much lower than any newly elected president in history, other than Trump during his first term.