Why Dems Should Embrace Trump as the Frontrunner
Instead of denying the bad polls, we should use them to motivate our base and raise the stakes.
This week brought yet another barrage of miserable polls for Joe Biden and the Democrats. The Wall Street Journal poll has Trump up 4 points on Biden — his first ever lead in the history of that poll. CNN released two new polls showing Biden trailing in the critical battleground states of Georgia and Michigan.
The response from the Democratic side was numbingly familiar. There is a group of online progressive Biden defenders who simply deny that the polls are correct. They raise questions about the methodology or the pollster or simply distrust the numbers.
Other Democrats immediately pounce on any poll that shows the race tied or narrowing as evidence that the tide is turning.
I get it. The polls were off significantly in 2016 and 2020. For Donald Trump to lead in the polls after four years of chaotic incompetence, one failed violent insurrection, and 91 felony charges is nauseating. None of it speaks well about the state of our country. However, instead of denying that Trump is a favorite to be the next President, Democrats should embrace it. Here’s why:
1. The Polls are a Red Herring
Polls aren’t perfect and media polls are particularly imperfect.
We are destined for another razor thin election. That is the reality of current American politics. Polarization means that most voters have their minds made up and only a small sliver of voters are still persuadable. The Electoral College skews Republican. Even when Democrats win the national popular vote by a large margin — as Biden did in 2020 — the race is still decided by a universe of voters smaller than the attendance at a Taylor Swift concert.
A narrow nail-biter is our destiny whether or not Biden is the nominee; whether he is facing Donald Trump or Donald Duck.
If Biden is up by 3 points in the polls or down by 3 points, the race is still within reach for either Biden or Trump. Since we can’t avoid that fate, let’s embrace it and shout it from the rooftops.