Why the Iran War Will Still Cost Trump in November
Even if Trump strikes a deal with Iran, mush political damage has been done
On a daily basis, it’s hard to know what’s going on with the Iran War. Some days, Iran and the US are on the cusp of striking a mediocre peace agreement. On other days, Trump is threatening to blow the shit out of Iran.
When the war started, many (like me) made dire predictions that it would cost the Republicans the election. It was being covered and discussed with white-hot ferocity. Once-erstwhile MAGA fans like Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, and Joe Rogan were savaging Trump for breaking his pseudo-promise not to start wars.
Four months later, the war has become background news.
True news junkies (Worldos in particular) are still following every twist and turn. They are tracking the on-again, off-again negotiations. They are well aware that even under the best-case scenario, Trump ends up signing a deal much weaker than the one Obama negotiated more than a decade ago.
But for most of America, the war has become background noise. It no longer drives conversation. Data from Magnitude Media shows that in recent days, more Americans are posting about the reality show Love Island than the Iran War.
Trump’s numbers have stopped sinking and stabilized at a historic low. The generic ballot has been steady for a couple of months.
This raises the question of what impact the Iran War will have on the midterms, which are still several months away. Some are already speculating that the Iran War will be yet another massive Trump blunder that gets memory-holed before people start voting.
I disagree.
Trump is already paying the price for starting and losing the dumbest war in American history. Even if a deal is struck in the coming days and weeks, the shooting stops, and the Strait opens, Trump will not escape the political pain from the Iran War.
Here’s why:
Costs Are Up, and They Aren’t Going Down
Everything in American politics over the last five years has revolved around prices. It’s what took down Biden’s presidency. High prices are why Trump was elected, and his failure to lower them is why Republicans are staring down the barrel of a brutal midterm.
That actually understates the case. It’s not just that Trump didn’t lower prices. It’s that he raised them by starting a war no one wanted against a country no one thought was an imminent threat.
