Why the Michigan Polls Blew It — And What It Means for November
Plus: impeachment, open primaries, October surprises, and reasons for Texas optimism
Welcome to this week's mailbag. I'm still tired from staying up too late and waking up too early for the Michigan primary results — and already bracing to do it all over again next Tuesday, when Wisconsin picks its gubernatorial nominee.
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Praem
Two questions:
1) With Michigan so difficult to poll, is that specific to the Democratic primary or is it going to continue to be difficult to poll in the general? Essentially, are we in store for more polling panicking between now and November?
2) Why would there be no exit polls? Could it be illegal? Was it not funded? That seems like important data (compared to no data), so I am surprised we don’t have any after Michigan.
Answer
The polls were very, very wrong in Michigan — so wrong that people got a little dizzy on Tuesday night when the El-Sayed–Stevens race went from an expected romp to a nailbiter that wasn’t called until the next morning.
So what happened, and what does it mean for the midterms?
