Why Trump is Freaking Out About Abortion

Kamala Harris has made his big political problem much worse.

During the last week of summer, when most Americans are headed out on vacation, planning a final barbeque, or getting ready for the first day of school, many folks missed one of the more consequential — and revealing — moments of the campaign between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Throughout a 24-hour period, Trump floated a cynically dishonest proposal to cover the cost of IVF procedures for every American. He implied he would vote for an initiative in Florida guaranteeing access to abortion. He took some rare heat from the GOP base and then flip-flopped and said he would vote against the initiative to lock in Florida’s extreme six-week abortion ban.

The reaction to the Dobbs decision and the ensuing extreme abortion bans pushed at the state level have driven American politics for over two years, and they continue to shape the contours of this campaign. Trump’s desperate flailing on reproductive issues shows just how scared he is about the power of abortion. The polling shows that Trump’s fear is well warranted. Still, Democrats must work hard for another victory over an anti-abortion extremist.

How Harris Changed the Game

At the outset of the campaign, Biden’s team previewed their strategy to win reelection despite low approval ratings and dissatisfaction with the economy: running on a platform of “Dobbs and democracy.”

I am skeptical about Democrats making “saving democracy” a centerpiece of their message. Nevertheless, abortion was always going to be a central part of the strategy. The Biden folks leaned in hard. Earlier this year, 90% of the Biden campaign television ads mentioned abortion — including several powerful spots featuring the testimonials of women tragically impacted by post-Dobbs abortion bans.

Concerns about Biden’s age and general disengagement from parts of the anti-MAGA coalition made it hard to force Trump to pay a fitting political price for his role in overturning Roe v. Wade.

With Vice President Harris at the top of the ticket, abortion is once again a dominant issue. According to New York Times/Siena polling, the number of women who say that abortion is their top issue has gone up significantly since Harris became the nominee.

For women under the age of 45, abortion overtook the economy as the single most important issue in deciding their vote.