Why Trump's Cabinet Picks Keep Blowing Up in his Face

Trump's bungled transition is a sign that his second term will be more incompetent than his first

It’s not even mid-December, and Trump already lost his first choice for Attorney General and head of the Drug Enforcement Agency. Pete Hegseth, the Fox News weekend anchor he tapped to be Secretary of Defense, is teetering on the brink thanks to obvious questions about his qualifications and recent revelations about his personal conduct. His nominees for Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), FBI Director, and Director of National Intelligence have unclear paths to confirmation.

After Trump’s first stint in office, no one should be surprised that his transition is operating like a goat rodeo. But this time, his picks are less qualified, more random, and more dangerous.

Although contentious battles raged over folks like Jeff Sessions, most of Trump’s first-term nominees were confirmed without too much drama. I worked on President Obama’s transition in 2008. I saw how these things worked on the inside; how nominees were vetted, chosen, and confirmed. How a President-elect conducts their transition is a good predictor of their first few years in office. Trump’s transition suggests that Trump 2.0 will be more chaotic and incompetent than the first.

This Transition is Historically Bad

Now, Presidents often lose a cabinet nominee or two in the process. Something always escapes vetting, and the Senate periodically imposes its will to remind the public (and themselves) that they are more than a revolving door for their party's President. Barack Obama infamously needed three choices to get a commerce secretary, and Tom Daschle, his choice to head up HHS, had to pull out over a picayune tax issue. Bill Clinton struggled to find an Attorney General. George HW Bush had his nominee for Secretary of Defense voted down.

In that context, Trump’s early stumbles aren’t ahistorical, but the context has changed. In those previous historical examples, the filibuster for nominations was in place, which meant you needed 60 votes for confirmation. Back then, to get someone confirmed, you needed bipartisan support. Trump only needs 50 Senate votes and the Republicans have 53 Senators.