Why Trump's Name is Almost Certainly in the Epstein Files

The most plausible explanation for Trump's approach to the Epstein files is fear

When the MAGA freakout over the Epstein files began a few weeks ago, I assumed that this was merely a case of a bunch of moronic grifters getting hoisted on their own conspiracy-loving petards. I believed that Trump et al made hay with the Epstein conspiracy because that’s what their base wanted. Pam Bondi made promises she couldn’t keep because she loved the attention and adulation that came from promising disclosure, but never considered the complications of actually releasing evidence that revealed the identities of those involved.

I assumed that the whole dustup was simply the result of incompetence rather than conspiracy. In Washington (and life), we often use Occam’s Razor as an explanation; i.e. these outcomes are a confluence of mistakes rather than a series of secretive and strategic actions. That explanation is even more likely when it comes to Trump and his circle of buffoons.

However, my view has changed in recent days. Trump’s behavior is so bizarre, so unhinged, and so counter to his short-term interests that the most likely explanation for his actions is that Trump either believes or knows that he is mentioned in the Epstein files in ways that are even more damaging than the blowback he is getting for not releasing the files.

This is, of course, speculation. There is no evidence that Trump was an Epstein “client.” But let me run through the evidence and allow you to make your own determination about why I believe Trump is mentioned in the Epstein files.

1. Trump and Epstein Have Longstanding Ties

Jeffrey Epstein had close relationships with many high-profile figures in the worlds of politics, finance, and tech. Among his coterie of close and powerful connections there are few people who he was closer with than Donald Trump.

According to Donald Trump himself, he and Epstein were friends for more than a decade. They hung out, partied together, and visited each other's homes. The New York Times has identified several high-profile instances where they appeared together in public, including:

In 1992, Mr. Trump threw a raucous party with N.F.L. cheerleaders at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. NBC’s footage of the party shows Mr. Trump socializing with Mr. Epstein.

In 1997, Mr. Trump and Mr. Epstein attended a Victoria’s Secret “Angels” party together in New York.

There are many photos of the two of them together. And before entering politics, Trump talked publicly about their friendship.

On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump sent Epstein a personalized 50th birthday card that alluded to their shared interests and featured an illustration of a naked woman allegedly drawn by Trump himself.

2. The Smoking Gun Quote