Why Trump's Poll Numbers Won't Get Better
An end to war in Iran won't solve Trump's political problems
There is something deeply unsettling about having a dangerously erratic president at a time of war.
The past week has been a perfect encapsulation of Trump-induced whiplash.
Last Thursday, we were at war and blockading the Strait of Hormuz. On Friday, Trump declared the Strait was open, Iran had agreed to all our conditions, and we were on the cusp of a peace deal. By Saturday morning, the Strait was closed again, and Iran had fired on at least two ships. On Sunday morning, U.S. officials were about to head to Pakistan to hammer out a deal, and a few hours later, the U.S. had seized an Iranian ship and Trump was once again threatening to commit war crimes. By Monday, peace talks were back on — and then, moments before J.D. Vance was scheduled to leave for Islamabad, they were called off, though the ceasefire was extended.
It’s impossible to know if, how, or when this moronic and illegal war will come to an end. Anyone dumb enough to start it is too dumb to finish it.
In that brief moment of “peace” on Friday, the stock market rallied, oil prices dropped, and political pundits began to wonder whether all the damage from the war would fade by November.
I don’t think so. Even if the war ended tomorrow and the Strait reopened, Trump will have suffered lasting political damage.
Of course, if the U.S. is still embroiled in a raging war and gas is well north of $4 a gallon come November, that’s a worst-case scenario — one Trump is doing a great job of ensuring with his unhinged tweets and schizophrenic policy decisions.
But no matter what happens, the damage is done, and this war is not one of those Trump outrages that will be memory-holed in a matter of weeks. Republicans will pay a price for Trump’s ill-fated, ill-considered decision to go to war.
Here’s why.
It’s the Decision, Not the Conflict
New wars tend to start popular and then lose altitude over time as people begin to reckon with the costs in blood and treasure. The Gulf War, the War in Afghanistan, and the Iraq War all launched with broad bipartisan support. The latter two dragged on and became particularly unpopular — but crucially, voters had initially supported the decision to go to war, and only soured over time on how those wars were conducted.
Not so with Trump’s war in Iran.
