Why You Shouldn't Freak Out about the NYT Poll

This remains a close race well within the "Margin of Effort."

I’m not sure we needed yet another poll from the New York Times to tell us what every fiber in our bodies already knew, but the Times gave us one anyway. In their final national poll (yay?) of the 2024 election, the New York Times/Siena poll finds the race tied at 48-48. When you include third-party candidates, Trump has a one-point lead. Three weeks ago, the NYT had Harris up by three.

On its surface, this poll validates the two central pillars of the political narrative over the last two weeks. First, this is an incredibly close race — perhaps the closest in history. Second, Trump may have the slightest bit of momentum at the end. I completely agree with the first, but as I have written, I’m skeptical about the second.

Either way, Republicans are exuberant about this poll, touting it as evidence of a coming GOP landslide that will lead to a governing trifecta in 2025. Democrats are responding predictably, as illustrated by this light-on-evidence but highly provocative piece from Axios:

A growing number of top Democrats tell us privately they feel Vice President Harris will lose — even though polls show a coin-toss finish 11 days from now.

Both sides need to do some deep breathing exercises and perhaps take a walk. This poll mostly confirms what we already know: this is an excruciatingly close race that either candidate could win—but it also contains some hope for Harris in the final stretch.

1. What About the Movement?

While the three-point shift since early October may represent a movement for Trump, it may simply be statistical noise. In general, the media tends to assign too much significance to minor shifts within a poll’s margin for error.

Has the race really moved three points in three weeks? That seems unlikely because, throughout the campaign, major earthshaking events have barely budged the polls. Trump’s conviction, both assassination attempts, and the Harris-Trump debate moved the polls by about 1.5%. In the first week, even Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance moved the polls by less than 2%.