I just listened to this week's episode of The Wilderness, and they had some interesting focus group data about Black Voters, as well as some excellent advice. Lavora Barnes made the point that if Dems want to earn votes, they need to be in the communities all the time, not just showing up in September. This is working in Michigan, and also in Wisconsin with WisDems. I think Pod Save the Vote is supporting these efforts as well. People are cranky this morning, it seems, but we are in the soup now, and we need to get it done. I'm heartened that Trump's lead is narrowing - I do also think that media outlets aren't all putting their best people on the analysis, and the spectacle profit motive headlines and content are going to be a challenge.
Preparing and organizing and funding for a campaign never shows up in the polls. And from what I remember, things are relatively quiet from Memorial Day during the real summer months in most presidential elections.
I can see perhaps the Biden team following that pattern, with reportedly a huge advantage in organizing and such in the battleground states. And then shifting to warp drive on Labor Day for a two month sprint, having kept our guy within striking distance during the summer.
People were just this panicked just before the State of the Union. Biden’s performance reassured them. Let’s get through the debates. Let’s believe in the candidate and the campaign. Let’s prepare ourselves for that 60 day burst after Labor Day.
Geez, can you imagine how freaked out we would be as Dems if our nominee had just been convicted of 34 crimes, found liable for sexual assault, had his business found guilty of financial fraud, favored banning abortion, and was on the unpopular side of almost every issue?
Fan: “How is the game going?”
Dem: “We forfeited.”
Fan: “What! Why?”
Dem: “We were down two points at the start of the 4th quarter.”
Welp… in the lemonade out of lemons world, when voters say they are down on Biden, it absolutely throws open the door for us to ask “what do you think would be better under Trump?” and get the conversation real personal real quick. And those are the conversations most likely to have impact when that voter shares it with others: authentic & personal.
False optimism and forced cheerfulness is inauthentic and ineffective. Reinforcing voters’ cynicism and fatalism is worse.
There are a lot of us in swing or swingy states who are doing deep canvassing, promoting young inspiring local candidates, calling our friends and neighbors for contributions to those inspiring candidates, and putting grassroots canvassing groups “on a monthly” as we call our contributions no matter how small. Just a few examples. A friend of mine is talking to the grocery store clerks. I’m taking hints from Dan and his team from their podcast about how to frame questions to folks who may be on the margins. (Can the nation survive another attempt by Trump to stay in office, etc)
We are doing this work now and are grateful for the support we’re getting from folks in places like CA, NY and Boston.
There are a gazillion ways to help and we can’t afford to be pessimistic. One thing I’m finding for example is that everyone wants to talk about abortion and what comes next in the attack on reproductive rights.
We’re working right now on an up ballot strategy and enthusiasm is high. If we lose the presidency at least we will have a strong community of support, which we will need.
So find a local or statewide person you believe in who has a chance and can make a difference and throw your energy there. Or a group, or whatever you can, suggest your friends and neighbors do the same etc. We can do this.
There is a big difference between being pessimistic and realistic. This is not just a word game. When we lean into our hopefulness, regardless of our concerns, I think we avoid panic and stay focused. For example, I understand that Biden is old. But that does not make him disqualified. It is OK to say that to folks. When I heard from a voter who said she voted for Biden last time, but was going to vote for Trump in 2024 because, "Biden did not do enough to save 'Roe' and abortion rights," I was astonsihed. I have to be positive about what I can control.
All the people on here who think Biden should drop out are living in a fantasy world where the grass is always greener on the other side. That would be utterly and completely impractical. Nobody has pushed themselves to replace him as a candidate. If it were going to happen, it would've happened in the primary. And if by some miracle the convention could agree in an alternative, it could be worse. Do you think black women, the core of the Democratic Party would be happy if the convention didn't select Kamala? They'd be outraged. Lots of Dem voters would be pissed off. There's no time to rally around an alternative. It's too late for all that. Just look forward. Biden is a good president! Gaza isn't the determining issue for very many people.
I too am completely baffled by the talk about replacing Biden at this late date. Are those Dems somehow jealous of the chaos on the Republican side?
And candidates who refused to step forward before the primaries or in the primaries are now—5 months before the election—are going to supplant Biden and Harris? Hardly.
There may be some tragic reason to replace a candidate. That can happen in any election year. But there’s no way to otherwise try to replace either Biden or Harris and avoid being a laughingstock.
I guess you're talking about Gaza but it's simply a fact that overall it's not a top issue for that many people. Can't remember where I read it - some poll on what issues were most important to likely voters.
So you're talking about the idea of replacing Biden in general, not specifically about Gaza. Yes, Citizens United was a terrible decision and campaign finance is a crucial issue. You feel that Biden isn't doing anything about it. So that outweighs everything else for you? You'd rather let our democracy slide into autocracy? Yes, those are the options.
Actually--he mentions it--a lot. Be fair. Top of the campaign is stopping Trump from another gigantic tax cut for the wealthy. I don't care that 90% percent of Americans want Citizens United changed. Of course they do. That and 5 bucks will get you coffee at Starbucks. 63% of all Americans say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. 63%. (Pew). 69% of all Americans believe the US should be carbon neutral by 2025. 69%. (Pew). We have to win elections before we can get where we need to go, but Biden has shown us in what he has done--not in his words--what he can and will do. The Supreme Court will look far worse if Trump wins in November. I think we should focus on kicking the right fanny.
There is a telling anecdote about FDR that is germane to your comment: A. Philip Randolph, a socialist who founded the Brotherhood of Sleeping Car Porters, approached FDR to demand that defense contractors be forced to stop discriminating against Black workers, and that most voters polled about it wanted the same. FDR said that even if 90% of voters wanted it, it was so far down the list of the most urgent needs of those same voters, it would never happen. He told Randolph that he agreed with him on the issue, "...so go make me do it"; make it more important.
Randolph and Bayard Rustin did just that. They organized a march on Washington with more than a million people signed up. They took that back to FDR, who thanked them and immediately issued an Executive Order. Randolph cancelled the march, having achieved its goal.
That's the position you are in. High support, but it doesn't appear in most folks' Top Ten. In other words, there are numerous much more urgent issues that directly affect people's lives than your issue. If you want to change that, railing at or about a candidate won't do a thing. "...so go make me do it", in other words.
You also seem to have a quaint idea about how a sitting president is chosen as a nominee. This last post is completely wrong and unhinged from any rule of the DNC. For the past 20 to 40+ years it has been the popular vote in state contests. Not "superdelegates", not smoke-filled rooms populated by "party wise men" The DNC does not place names on campaigns for the nomination. They have much less influence (nearly none) on who runs than you seem to think. You are free to write in the name Dean Phillips when you vote, or otherwise waste it. But railing against other Dems and insulting the candidate we support does not seem to add anything helpful to the discussion.
By the way, I recall that "Free Ice Cream on Saturdays" clocked in at 100% on a Buzzfeed poll a year or so ago.
This and your precious, beloved polls are garbage. Alsobrooks and Suozzi were down in the polls (including the 538 average) and when people actually showed up to vote won by 13 and 8 points, respectively. This tells me the polls are either 1. Missing a huge block of voters 2. Grossly overcorrected after 2016 and 3. The sample is not generalizable which is a huge problem in data science (and probably all 3 to some degree). Watching journalist keep saying this or that sample “represents voting Americans” is painfully cringe. Hire an I/O psychologist to help you out here.
You, like many other Democrats, may not realize how much trouble President Biden is in. I had the opportunity to door-to-door canvas this weekend in Wisconsin, and I ran into a Palestinian man at one of the homes I was canvassing who told me that he and his entire 35 member extended family are planning to skip over the top of the ticket because of President Biden’s screwed-up Gaza policy. And these are loyal Democrats who plan on casting their ballots for Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin.
His delusional pollsters like Simon Rosenberg gaslight us by saying things like “I much rather be us than them at this point.” No, Mr. Rosenberg, President Biden’s re-election campaign is failing miserably in an election year when failure is not an option.
At this point it may be too late for President Biden, and I believe he should drop out while there is still time. There can be a brokered convention this summer in Chicago and Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, an ordained Christian minister, can replace him at the top of the ticket. No one will question Senator Warnock’s moral leadership on Gaza or any other issue.
A brokered convention would be a great civics lesson for the American people and help to reawaken some of their dormant sense of idealism, which I believe to be our country’s greatest challenge right now. The American people can bring their pens to the voting booth and write Senator Warnock’s name on the ballot. It is not that hard to spell. That’s why pens exist.
Most people who don’t live in Georgia or follow Democratic politics don’t know Rev. Warnock. How much money and time does it take to build recognition for a candidate who doesn’t have a national profile?
I apologize for taking so long to get back to you. When it comes to polling my feeling is that if all of the polls are saying the same thing there is definitely something to them. This is what concerns me so much about President Biden’s reelection campaign. His opponent is a convicted felon who makes completely deranged comments on a daily basis, and President Biden is essentially tied with him in the popular vote and trailing him in most of the key swing states in recent polls.
President Biden made a political calculation to write off the Arab American vote because he felt that putting sufficient pressure on Israel to protect Palestinian civilians during this horrible conflict would isolate more voters. This is a risky proposition, and I hope that for the survival of our country’s 248 year old experiment in democracy it succeeds.
Most Americans could care less about President Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure bill. The only chance he has to beat Trump and save our nation from fascism is if voters from different political ideologies and backgrounds vote to re-elect him for that reason and maybe because they fear and loathe Trump so much personally. This is definitely doable but it is not an enviable position to be in.
I will try harder to choose my words more carefully. But I believe the cold hard truth to be that President Biden’s reelection campaign is a freight train about to veer off a cliff. And when it does he is going to take our country’s entire 248 year old “experiment in democracy” down with him.
If there is a way of making this point any more respectfully please let me know. I have nothing against Mr. Rosenberg or President Biden. In fact I even paid $50.00 to join Mr. Rosenberg’s online political organization, Hopium. However now is the time to push the panic button, Mr. Pfeiffer.
Let’s think about this for a second. President Biden is running neck and neck in public opinion polls with someone who was just convicted on 34 felony counts by a jury of his peers. Maybe that is a sign that something is seriously amiss with his reelection campaign.
Whether is fair or not the American people don’t want Joe Biden as their President. any longer. That is what they have been telling pollsters for months. No one else can force anyone to feel or vote a certain way.
There are plenty of other qualified people who are capable of replacing him. And I believe Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia to be one of them.
I just discovered another error in the fourth paragraph. The second word in the first sentence should be “it.” Sometimes when I am in a rush I don’t proofread my work as carefully as I should. I apologize.
I keep hearing the race is winnable for Biden but I also read about different demographic groups he needs to win over and what I am not reading is HOW he is going to win. Biden is going to need more than turnout to win although this factor is huge so as a supporter how are we going to support Biden is a way that closes the gaps.
I've been phonebanking both to swing states & with the DNC to recruit more Democratic volunteers. My husband is postcarding. I am way more optimistic talking to actual swing voters than reading the poll of the day about the horse race. Simon Rosenberg talks about the 2024 version of the WW2 victory garden. Everybody who wants Biden not Trump as President next year doing something, canvassing, phonebanking, postcardimg, text banking, donating or just talking to friends and family. Doing something is way way better than doing nothing. Resistance is not futile. Get in the solution instead of the problem. My solution is getting Biden’s actual strengths and what Trump has done & will do in front of voters who don't have true & actual information. I've been finding when I do this undecided voters come back to Biden. So far it hasn't taken much more than that.
Thank you your efforts and actions. I have met so many people who are not paying attention and are turned off by politics. I think your right in that we need to get in front of people and have a friendly conversation.
I spoke to a voter in Wisconsin getting off an Amazon night shift working 3 jobs. I told her someone else would call back but she WANTED to talk to me. She said "this is important" & she said I sounded nice. I asked her first off if she would vote for Biden. Her response "Who is running against him?" She did not know. I said Trump. "How is Trump not in prison?" She didn't like Biden. We had a long conversation about student loans, gas prices, Biden’s pro union work. She got a lot more info. Still didn't like Biden but DEFINITELY voting for Biden. Trump is poison to her. I told her if she really wanted Trump to lose she should tell people she's voting for Biden. This is what is real for people. I put it forward as the binary reality. You get Biden or Trump. That changes things but you have to clearly get them to accept that.
If only we all call talk one on one with a person you described. I would have been interested in knowing why she didn’t like Biden. Confirms how many people are not paying attention.
She thought he didn't do enough for the middle class. He didn't do enough on student loans. Gas prices. She said she didn't like people who make excuses ie Republican SCOTUS kept him from forgiving more. I said he forgave billions of $ & thousands of loans & sorry hers wasn't one. She appreciated he helped others. I said he was most pro union president in a while. She said didn't help her cuz Amazon not unionized. I said it could be in the future. She said it's true she nakes more $$ now but it still feels bad to pay more. I empathized but said logically it evens out. Etc.. just really the basics, stuff is more expensive kind of vibes stuff even tho she acknowledged her life is good & she's an Amazon manager & makes good $$. It's just real life. I get it, she works 3 shifts, one is a night shift. She's a single mom. She's allowed to say she wants better. But she was pragmatic enough to say I am not getting what I need but I'm still making the choice that's best for me. She said, "I'm going to be honest a lot of people I know don't like Biden. " I was real back "If you seriously don't want to live under Trump tell people you are voting for Biden" I said as a swing voter interacting with disaffected voters her opinion holds huge weight & power. Hopefully she uses it for good.
Dan- I agree generally with your sentiments, so a few observations. The fact that you and others are imploring us to believe, is troubliing. Also, blaming the media only goes so far. If you see what the media eats up, why are the Dems not giving that to them? Here are 100 Reasons Not to Vote for Trump ( negative stuff). Also, its not like we saw Dems shouting from the rooftops about the number 34. Im not saying go fullout Howard Dean, but we did virtually nothing that was at all hell raising to rally the troops after the conviction. It almost seems that the leaders of the party were ducking rahter than making a show of it. We are constatnly told, the campaign has all this data and they know what they are doing. But is the campaign giving serious thought to the fact that we need to "feel" like we are on the winning team. All of you pundits give us analysis, but we haven't seen the rah rah team buidling that is so needed. Maybe the campaign can wait for what they consider the ideal time to do things, but I think they are losing sight of the need for a SPIRITED TEAM. For those of you who went to camp, think Color War. You need spirited Generals and Captains. The best thing we could do to distract a bit from the age issue, is to have surrogates with spirit out there, so the team seems energetic. The troops need to see that NOW.
So--Trump is a better outcome? I don't think this is what is happening. I too have my contrary opinions about Israel and Gaza, and other things--but Joe Biden has been a good President in the most difficult of times. For example: We need to desperately fight to keep the Inflation Reduction Act in place and expand on it for our future. Trump plans on insuring that the planet become uninhabitable within a decade. That alone is enough. And how about another round of tax cuts for the wealthy? How about preserving the Atlantic Alliance and Ukraine? And democracy? I want to live in a multiracial democracy of law, equality and liberty.
There is nothing easy in this world today, but we need to be committed to standing against Fascism, hate, and misogyny. To me the choices are not hard to make. It is right to be worried--but we need to stick together.
People like Dan were wrongly convinced that this time last year that Biden would be easily ahead in the polls because of his “Dark Brandon” persona and Trump would be losing because of January 6. Neither is true and it’s the complete opposite of reality. Biden needs to get lost or we may just start our moving plans. Trump is going to win this election
Please point us all to the posts from “this time last year” where Dan (or any other credible commentator) was convinced “that Biden would be easily ahead in the polls”.
I don’t disagree with any of the above. There is a path forward. But, I think we *should* panic about the polls. Biden’s approval has dropped to -19 on 538’s average, while the disapproval isn’t much higher than at it’s worst, the approval is slipping and I, myself a loyal dem voter, can’t decide if I actually approve of him or not (primarily disapprove because of his decision to run again).
Biden has a path to re-election, but until there’s real movement in the positive (both in swing state polls, and in his approval) there is no reason to feel like the campaign is on that path to reelection. If election were held today, I’d expect a dominant Trump victory just based on his approval being better and the swing state polling. We should panic, we should have panicked in the primary and this is really a bad moment in the campaign. Biden needs to do something to get out there to make an improvement!
(Weirdly enough Hunter being found guilty I think would be the catalyst that would move the polling, showing that the ruling against is more fair than their priors might suggest because even the president’s son is not above the law. “No one is above the law in the Biden administration, Trump and his family are in his.” Is a simple and effective message).
Let's just accept that Democrats are always going to freak out at everything and their therapy is always going to be to run to the closest NYT or Politico reporter they can find.
The more troubling thing is the way that some members of the party apparatus trip over themselves to wreck things when they need not be wrecked. I'm looking primarily at the situation in New York, where Kathy Hochul just abruptly put the new congestion pricing scheme for the NYC MTA on ice because there was allegedly concern from the D-Trips about the scheme endangering some House Dem races in the suburbs. Sadly this seems to have made things worse rather than better, because now everyone is angry--except Republicans who probably think they can exploit this (and might be right). How do we truly stop things like this before they turn into potential quagmires?
Monday morning blues? I have finally been through the comments--and I am offcially feeling depressed. Look--Biden is running for re-election. That will not change. Unbelieveably--so is Donald Felon Trump. That is a reality. Kamala Harris is an excellent VP--and the staff around President Biden is excellent. Biden just went to Europe, and the contrast between his presidency and a return to Trump was stark--clear--and frightening to consider. We have a democratic president now who knows what he is doing, and a nasty, demented, dictator ready to bring America and the world to ruin. The Atlantic Alliance, a democratic future of human rights, and a sustainbile planet filled with more peace than war and starvation--that is what is in the balance to me. That is what I hope for--and I don't think of it as "hopium." So--I remind myself each day--we CAN'T win the election today. We must work hard to win in November. Telling each other to quit hoping will not be helpful.
The skepticism and optimism are admirable, but hope is not a strategy, and jump ball is not acceptable when Trump is one of the jumpers. The path exists to a Dem ticket that obliterates Trumpism with positivity and resolve.
Please recognize that Biden fatally wounded himself last Thursday by confirming his biggest weakness. Nobody can say with credibility that Biden is able to perform the job for four more years, and that is a damning judgement. With Biden, all we have is anti-Trump. Fear and loathing are powerful motivators, but "not the other guy" is never a sufficient argument. Biden needs to go.
Replacing Candidate Biden is not an option. There is no possible world or magical process where the Democratic Party negotiates to a new candidate AND maintains the necessary coalition, let alone enthusiasm, to get the turnout needed for victory. "Vote for this person we selected for you" is not acceptable in the primary era.
So we're screwed, right? WRONG.
There is a GREAT option that will revitalize the electorate and lead us to victory. This crisis is an opportunity – if we're clear-eyed and bold enough to seize it.
Biden must resign, by his choice or the threat of the 25th. Allow Harris to demonstrate she's up to the job from now until the election. Name Pete Buttigieg VP. Harris will prosecute the case against Trump as Biden simply cannot. Pete will travel the country and be a constant presence on the screens, making the case as only he can. Dems will be out of their mind exited to elect the first woman president and first proud, openly gay man VP. The convention will be a joyful and raucous celebration.
This is not just a way out of the crisis, it's a way to bring positivity through generational change and the shattering of barriers. PLEASE LETS TALK ABOUT THIS!
Volunteering to do voter outreach work (phone, canvass, text, postcards) to voters in flippable districts/states and toss-up districts/states we need to hold. Please reach out to me at info@indivisiblemarin.org and I can help you find strategically impactful options! Much of the work is done remotely these days so location is not a hurdle.
Biden doing more, being more visible, going on more talk shows, more news shows for interviews, more seemingly trivial shows like The Breakfast Club, just being out there more, doing more than 2 debates. If Republicans get to basically not do their jobs in Congress and campaign 24-7, then Biden should do the same. His numbers won’t move until people see him doing more.
I just listened to this week's episode of The Wilderness, and they had some interesting focus group data about Black Voters, as well as some excellent advice. Lavora Barnes made the point that if Dems want to earn votes, they need to be in the communities all the time, not just showing up in September. This is working in Michigan, and also in Wisconsin with WisDems. I think Pod Save the Vote is supporting these efforts as well. People are cranky this morning, it seems, but we are in the soup now, and we need to get it done. I'm heartened that Trump's lead is narrowing - I do also think that media outlets aren't all putting their best people on the analysis, and the spectacle profit motive headlines and content are going to be a challenge.
Excellent episode.
Preparing and organizing and funding for a campaign never shows up in the polls. And from what I remember, things are relatively quiet from Memorial Day during the real summer months in most presidential elections.
I can see perhaps the Biden team following that pattern, with reportedly a huge advantage in organizing and such in the battleground states. And then shifting to warp drive on Labor Day for a two month sprint, having kept our guy within striking distance during the summer.
People were just this panicked just before the State of the Union. Biden’s performance reassured them. Let’s get through the debates. Let’s believe in the candidate and the campaign. Let’s prepare ourselves for that 60 day burst after Labor Day.
Geez, can you imagine how freaked out we would be as Dems if our nominee had just been convicted of 34 crimes, found liable for sexual assault, had his business found guilty of financial fraud, favored banning abortion, and was on the unpopular side of almost every issue?
Fan: “How is the game going?”
Dem: “We forfeited.”
Fan: “What! Why?”
Dem: “We were down two points at the start of the 4th quarter.”
This says everything, Tom.
Welp… in the lemonade out of lemons world, when voters say they are down on Biden, it absolutely throws open the door for us to ask “what do you think would be better under Trump?” and get the conversation real personal real quick. And those are the conversations most likely to have impact when that voter shares it with others: authentic & personal.
False optimism and forced cheerfulness is inauthentic and ineffective. Reinforcing voters’ cynicism and fatalism is worse.
Good news is, we don’t have to do either.
There are a lot of us in swing or swingy states who are doing deep canvassing, promoting young inspiring local candidates, calling our friends and neighbors for contributions to those inspiring candidates, and putting grassroots canvassing groups “on a monthly” as we call our contributions no matter how small. Just a few examples. A friend of mine is talking to the grocery store clerks. I’m taking hints from Dan and his team from their podcast about how to frame questions to folks who may be on the margins. (Can the nation survive another attempt by Trump to stay in office, etc)
We are doing this work now and are grateful for the support we’re getting from folks in places like CA, NY and Boston.
There are a gazillion ways to help and we can’t afford to be pessimistic. One thing I’m finding for example is that everyone wants to talk about abortion and what comes next in the attack on reproductive rights.
We’re working right now on an up ballot strategy and enthusiasm is high. If we lose the presidency at least we will have a strong community of support, which we will need.
So find a local or statewide person you believe in who has a chance and can make a difference and throw your energy there. Or a group, or whatever you can, suggest your friends and neighbors do the same etc. We can do this.
I'm helping but you know what, I'm also pessimistic. I can't afford to not deal with reality.
There is a big difference between being pessimistic and realistic. This is not just a word game. When we lean into our hopefulness, regardless of our concerns, I think we avoid panic and stay focused. For example, I understand that Biden is old. But that does not make him disqualified. It is OK to say that to folks. When I heard from a voter who said she voted for Biden last time, but was going to vote for Trump in 2024 because, "Biden did not do enough to save 'Roe' and abortion rights," I was astonsihed. I have to be positive about what I can control.
I’ve heard that too about Roe and so important to explain. Or find out what they think he could do and address that.
I get it. Am steeling for a Trump win
also. I just think the whole ticket is not sunk. And that will matter.
Thank you!!
All the people on here who think Biden should drop out are living in a fantasy world where the grass is always greener on the other side. That would be utterly and completely impractical. Nobody has pushed themselves to replace him as a candidate. If it were going to happen, it would've happened in the primary. And if by some miracle the convention could agree in an alternative, it could be worse. Do you think black women, the core of the Democratic Party would be happy if the convention didn't select Kamala? They'd be outraged. Lots of Dem voters would be pissed off. There's no time to rally around an alternative. It's too late for all that. Just look forward. Biden is a good president! Gaza isn't the determining issue for very many people.
This is right. I also hear some disingenuous sniping about Kamala Harris. I have confidence in her and after all, the die is cast.
I too am completely baffled by the talk about replacing Biden at this late date. Are those Dems somehow jealous of the chaos on the Republican side?
And candidates who refused to step forward before the primaries or in the primaries are now—5 months before the election—are going to supplant Biden and Harris? Hardly.
There may be some tragic reason to replace a candidate. That can happen in any election year. But there’s no way to otherwise try to replace either Biden or Harris and avoid being a laughingstock.
Anne,
Thank you for this dose of reality. This should be the comment of the day.
I guess you're talking about Gaza but it's simply a fact that overall it's not a top issue for that many people. Can't remember where I read it - some poll on what issues were most important to likely voters.
So you're talking about the idea of replacing Biden in general, not specifically about Gaza. Yes, Citizens United was a terrible decision and campaign finance is a crucial issue. You feel that Biden isn't doing anything about it. So that outweighs everything else for you? You'd rather let our democracy slide into autocracy? Yes, those are the options.
Actually--he mentions it--a lot. Be fair. Top of the campaign is stopping Trump from another gigantic tax cut for the wealthy. I don't care that 90% percent of Americans want Citizens United changed. Of course they do. That and 5 bucks will get you coffee at Starbucks. 63% of all Americans say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. 63%. (Pew). 69% of all Americans believe the US should be carbon neutral by 2025. 69%. (Pew). We have to win elections before we can get where we need to go, but Biden has shown us in what he has done--not in his words--what he can and will do. The Supreme Court will look far worse if Trump wins in November. I think we should focus on kicking the right fanny.
There is a telling anecdote about FDR that is germane to your comment: A. Philip Randolph, a socialist who founded the Brotherhood of Sleeping Car Porters, approached FDR to demand that defense contractors be forced to stop discriminating against Black workers, and that most voters polled about it wanted the same. FDR said that even if 90% of voters wanted it, it was so far down the list of the most urgent needs of those same voters, it would never happen. He told Randolph that he agreed with him on the issue, "...so go make me do it"; make it more important.
Randolph and Bayard Rustin did just that. They organized a march on Washington with more than a million people signed up. They took that back to FDR, who thanked them and immediately issued an Executive Order. Randolph cancelled the march, having achieved its goal.
That's the position you are in. High support, but it doesn't appear in most folks' Top Ten. In other words, there are numerous much more urgent issues that directly affect people's lives than your issue. If you want to change that, railing at or about a candidate won't do a thing. "...so go make me do it", in other words.
You also seem to have a quaint idea about how a sitting president is chosen as a nominee. This last post is completely wrong and unhinged from any rule of the DNC. For the past 20 to 40+ years it has been the popular vote in state contests. Not "superdelegates", not smoke-filled rooms populated by "party wise men" The DNC does not place names on campaigns for the nomination. They have much less influence (nearly none) on who runs than you seem to think. You are free to write in the name Dean Phillips when you vote, or otherwise waste it. But railing against other Dems and insulting the candidate we support does not seem to add anything helpful to the discussion.
By the way, I recall that "Free Ice Cream on Saturdays" clocked in at 100% on a Buzzfeed poll a year or so ago.
Quiet!
I’m sick of your crap!
This and your precious, beloved polls are garbage. Alsobrooks and Suozzi were down in the polls (including the 538 average) and when people actually showed up to vote won by 13 and 8 points, respectively. This tells me the polls are either 1. Missing a huge block of voters 2. Grossly overcorrected after 2016 and 3. The sample is not generalizable which is a huge problem in data science (and probably all 3 to some degree). Watching journalist keep saying this or that sample “represents voting Americans” is painfully cringe. Hire an I/O psychologist to help you out here.
Dear Mark,
You, like many other Democrats, may not realize how much trouble President Biden is in. I had the opportunity to door-to-door canvas this weekend in Wisconsin, and I ran into a Palestinian man at one of the homes I was canvassing who told me that he and his entire 35 member extended family are planning to skip over the top of the ticket because of President Biden’s screwed-up Gaza policy. And these are loyal Democrats who plan on casting their ballots for Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin.
His delusional pollsters like Simon Rosenberg gaslight us by saying things like “I much rather be us than them at this point.” No, Mr. Rosenberg, President Biden’s re-election campaign is failing miserably in an election year when failure is not an option.
At this point it may be too late for President Biden, and I believe he should drop out while there is still time. There can be a brokered convention this summer in Chicago and Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, an ordained Christian minister, can replace him at the top of the ticket. No one will question Senator Warnock’s moral leadership on Gaza or any other issue.
A brokered convention would be a great civics lesson for the American people and help to reawaken some of their dormant sense of idealism, which I believe to be our country’s greatest challenge right now. The American people can bring their pens to the voting booth and write Senator Warnock’s name on the ballot. It is not that hard to spell. That’s why pens exist.
Sincerely,
David Hurwitz
Chicago, IL
Most people who don’t live in Georgia or follow Democratic politics don’t know Rev. Warnock. How much money and time does it take to build recognition for a candidate who doesn’t have a national profile?
Maybe, my issue is with garbage polling methodology so if you’d like to comment on that I’m here for it.
Dear Mark,
I apologize for taking so long to get back to you. When it comes to polling my feeling is that if all of the polls are saying the same thing there is definitely something to them. This is what concerns me so much about President Biden’s reelection campaign. His opponent is a convicted felon who makes completely deranged comments on a daily basis, and President Biden is essentially tied with him in the popular vote and trailing him in most of the key swing states in recent polls.
President Biden made a political calculation to write off the Arab American vote because he felt that putting sufficient pressure on Israel to protect Palestinian civilians during this horrible conflict would isolate more voters. This is a risky proposition, and I hope that for the survival of our country’s 248 year old experiment in democracy it succeeds.
Most Americans could care less about President Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure bill. The only chance he has to beat Trump and save our nation from fascism is if voters from different political ideologies and backgrounds vote to re-elect him for that reason and maybe because they fear and loathe Trump so much personally. This is definitely doable but it is not an enviable position to be in.
Sincerely,
David Hurwitz
Chicago, IL
The last sentence should read “for one to be in.”
Dear Liz,
I will try harder to choose my words more carefully. But I believe the cold hard truth to be that President Biden’s reelection campaign is a freight train about to veer off a cliff. And when it does he is going to take our country’s entire 248 year old “experiment in democracy” down with him.
If there is a way of making this point any more respectfully please let me know. I have nothing against Mr. Rosenberg or President Biden. In fact I even paid $50.00 to join Mr. Rosenberg’s online political organization, Hopium. However now is the time to push the panic button, Mr. Pfeiffer.
Let’s think about this for a second. President Biden is running neck and neck in public opinion polls with someone who was just convicted on 34 felony counts by a jury of his peers. Maybe that is a sign that something is seriously amiss with his reelection campaign.
Whether is fair or not the American people don’t want Joe Biden as their President. any longer. That is what they have been telling pollsters for months. No one else can force anyone to feel or vote a certain way.
There are plenty of other qualified people who are capable of replacing him. And I believe Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia to be one of them.
Sincerely,
David Hurwitz
Chicago, IL
There should be a comma as opposed to a period in the first sentence of the fourth paragraph. My bad.
David
I just discovered another error in the fourth paragraph. The second word in the first sentence should be “it.” Sometimes when I am in a rush I don’t proofread my work as carefully as I should. I apologize.
David
I keep hearing the race is winnable for Biden but I also read about different demographic groups he needs to win over and what I am not reading is HOW he is going to win. Biden is going to need more than turnout to win although this factor is huge so as a supporter how are we going to support Biden is a way that closes the gaps.
I've been phonebanking both to swing states & with the DNC to recruit more Democratic volunteers. My husband is postcarding. I am way more optimistic talking to actual swing voters than reading the poll of the day about the horse race. Simon Rosenberg talks about the 2024 version of the WW2 victory garden. Everybody who wants Biden not Trump as President next year doing something, canvassing, phonebanking, postcardimg, text banking, donating or just talking to friends and family. Doing something is way way better than doing nothing. Resistance is not futile. Get in the solution instead of the problem. My solution is getting Biden’s actual strengths and what Trump has done & will do in front of voters who don't have true & actual information. I've been finding when I do this undecided voters come back to Biden. So far it hasn't taken much more than that.
Thank you your efforts and actions. I have met so many people who are not paying attention and are turned off by politics. I think your right in that we need to get in front of people and have a friendly conversation.
I spoke to a voter in Wisconsin getting off an Amazon night shift working 3 jobs. I told her someone else would call back but she WANTED to talk to me. She said "this is important" & she said I sounded nice. I asked her first off if she would vote for Biden. Her response "Who is running against him?" She did not know. I said Trump. "How is Trump not in prison?" She didn't like Biden. We had a long conversation about student loans, gas prices, Biden’s pro union work. She got a lot more info. Still didn't like Biden but DEFINITELY voting for Biden. Trump is poison to her. I told her if she really wanted Trump to lose she should tell people she's voting for Biden. This is what is real for people. I put it forward as the binary reality. You get Biden or Trump. That changes things but you have to clearly get them to accept that.
If only we all call talk one on one with a person you described. I would have been interested in knowing why she didn’t like Biden. Confirms how many people are not paying attention.
She thought he didn't do enough for the middle class. He didn't do enough on student loans. Gas prices. She said she didn't like people who make excuses ie Republican SCOTUS kept him from forgiving more. I said he forgave billions of $ & thousands of loans & sorry hers wasn't one. She appreciated he helped others. I said he was most pro union president in a while. She said didn't help her cuz Amazon not unionized. I said it could be in the future. She said it's true she nakes more $$ now but it still feels bad to pay more. I empathized but said logically it evens out. Etc.. just really the basics, stuff is more expensive kind of vibes stuff even tho she acknowledged her life is good & she's an Amazon manager & makes good $$. It's just real life. I get it, she works 3 shifts, one is a night shift. She's a single mom. She's allowed to say she wants better. But she was pragmatic enough to say I am not getting what I need but I'm still making the choice that's best for me. She said, "I'm going to be honest a lot of people I know don't like Biden. " I was real back "If you seriously don't want to live under Trump tell people you are voting for Biden" I said as a swing voter interacting with disaffected voters her opinion holds huge weight & power. Hopefully she uses it for good.
Dan- I agree generally with your sentiments, so a few observations. The fact that you and others are imploring us to believe, is troubliing. Also, blaming the media only goes so far. If you see what the media eats up, why are the Dems not giving that to them? Here are 100 Reasons Not to Vote for Trump ( negative stuff). Also, its not like we saw Dems shouting from the rooftops about the number 34. Im not saying go fullout Howard Dean, but we did virtually nothing that was at all hell raising to rally the troops after the conviction. It almost seems that the leaders of the party were ducking rahter than making a show of it. We are constatnly told, the campaign has all this data and they know what they are doing. But is the campaign giving serious thought to the fact that we need to "feel" like we are on the winning team. All of you pundits give us analysis, but we haven't seen the rah rah team buidling that is so needed. Maybe the campaign can wait for what they consider the ideal time to do things, but I think they are losing sight of the need for a SPIRITED TEAM. For those of you who went to camp, think Color War. You need spirited Generals and Captains. The best thing we could do to distract a bit from the age issue, is to have surrogates with spirit out there, so the team seems energetic. The troops need to see that NOW.
Maybe if Dan wasn’t so attached to Biden due to their Delaware and Obama connections he would be more open to tell Biden to DROP OUT
Derp.
So--Trump is a better outcome? I don't think this is what is happening. I too have my contrary opinions about Israel and Gaza, and other things--but Joe Biden has been a good President in the most difficult of times. For example: We need to desperately fight to keep the Inflation Reduction Act in place and expand on it for our future. Trump plans on insuring that the planet become uninhabitable within a decade. That alone is enough. And how about another round of tax cuts for the wealthy? How about preserving the Atlantic Alliance and Ukraine? And democracy? I want to live in a multiracial democracy of law, equality and liberty.
There is nothing easy in this world today, but we need to be committed to standing against Fascism, hate, and misogyny. To me the choices are not hard to make. It is right to be worried--but we need to stick together.
People like Dan were wrongly convinced that this time last year that Biden would be easily ahead in the polls because of his “Dark Brandon” persona and Trump would be losing because of January 6. Neither is true and it’s the complete opposite of reality. Biden needs to get lost or we may just start our moving plans. Trump is going to win this election
Please point us all to the posts from “this time last year” where Dan (or any other credible commentator) was convinced “that Biden would be easily ahead in the polls”.
I’ll be right over here, on the edge of my seat.
I don’t disagree with any of the above. There is a path forward. But, I think we *should* panic about the polls. Biden’s approval has dropped to -19 on 538’s average, while the disapproval isn’t much higher than at it’s worst, the approval is slipping and I, myself a loyal dem voter, can’t decide if I actually approve of him or not (primarily disapprove because of his decision to run again).
Biden has a path to re-election, but until there’s real movement in the positive (both in swing state polls, and in his approval) there is no reason to feel like the campaign is on that path to reelection. If election were held today, I’d expect a dominant Trump victory just based on his approval being better and the swing state polling. We should panic, we should have panicked in the primary and this is really a bad moment in the campaign. Biden needs to do something to get out there to make an improvement!
(Weirdly enough Hunter being found guilty I think would be the catalyst that would move the polling, showing that the ruling against is more fair than their priors might suggest because even the president’s son is not above the law. “No one is above the law in the Biden administration, Trump and his family are in his.” Is a simple and effective message).
Let's just accept that Democrats are always going to freak out at everything and their therapy is always going to be to run to the closest NYT or Politico reporter they can find.
The more troubling thing is the way that some members of the party apparatus trip over themselves to wreck things when they need not be wrecked. I'm looking primarily at the situation in New York, where Kathy Hochul just abruptly put the new congestion pricing scheme for the NYC MTA on ice because there was allegedly concern from the D-Trips about the scheme endangering some House Dem races in the suburbs. Sadly this seems to have made things worse rather than better, because now everyone is angry--except Republicans who probably think they can exploit this (and might be right). How do we truly stop things like this before they turn into potential quagmires?
I think “Mark” is an alias for Simon Rosenberg lmfao
Monday morning blues? I have finally been through the comments--and I am offcially feeling depressed. Look--Biden is running for re-election. That will not change. Unbelieveably--so is Donald Felon Trump. That is a reality. Kamala Harris is an excellent VP--and the staff around President Biden is excellent. Biden just went to Europe, and the contrast between his presidency and a return to Trump was stark--clear--and frightening to consider. We have a democratic president now who knows what he is doing, and a nasty, demented, dictator ready to bring America and the world to ruin. The Atlantic Alliance, a democratic future of human rights, and a sustainbile planet filled with more peace than war and starvation--that is what is in the balance to me. That is what I hope for--and I don't think of it as "hopium." So--I remind myself each day--we CAN'T win the election today. We must work hard to win in November. Telling each other to quit hoping will not be helpful.
The skepticism and optimism are admirable, but hope is not a strategy, and jump ball is not acceptable when Trump is one of the jumpers. The path exists to a Dem ticket that obliterates Trumpism with positivity and resolve.
Please recognize that Biden fatally wounded himself last Thursday by confirming his biggest weakness. Nobody can say with credibility that Biden is able to perform the job for four more years, and that is a damning judgement. With Biden, all we have is anti-Trump. Fear and loathing are powerful motivators, but "not the other guy" is never a sufficient argument. Biden needs to go.
Replacing Candidate Biden is not an option. There is no possible world or magical process where the Democratic Party negotiates to a new candidate AND maintains the necessary coalition, let alone enthusiasm, to get the turnout needed for victory. "Vote for this person we selected for you" is not acceptable in the primary era.
So we're screwed, right? WRONG.
There is a GREAT option that will revitalize the electorate and lead us to victory. This crisis is an opportunity – if we're clear-eyed and bold enough to seize it.
Biden must resign, by his choice or the threat of the 25th. Allow Harris to demonstrate she's up to the job from now until the election. Name Pete Buttigieg VP. Harris will prosecute the case against Trump as Biden simply cannot. Pete will travel the country and be a constant presence on the screens, making the case as only he can. Dems will be out of their mind exited to elect the first woman president and first proud, openly gay man VP. The convention will be a joyful and raucous celebration.
This is not just a way out of the crisis, it's a way to bring positivity through generational change and the shattering of barriers. PLEASE LETS TALK ABOUT THIS!
Hi Crickets! Thanks for engaging in this discussion.
What “work ensures a win?”
Volunteering to do voter outreach work (phone, canvass, text, postcards) to voters in flippable districts/states and toss-up districts/states we need to hold. Please reach out to me at info@indivisiblemarin.org and I can help you find strategically impactful options! Much of the work is done remotely these days so location is not a hurdle.
Biden doing more, being more visible, going on more talk shows, more news shows for interviews, more seemingly trivial shows like The Breakfast Club, just being out there more, doing more than 2 debates. If Republicans get to basically not do their jobs in Congress and campaign 24-7, then Biden should do the same. His numbers won’t move until people see him doing more.
I know what ensures defeat.
I wish you would stop talking!