Will the Trump Shooting Really Shake up the Race?

Even something as dramatic as an assassination attempt is unlikely to shake up a remarkably steady race

After processing the shock of the horrific assassination attempt of Donald Trump, Democrats began to reckon with the political consequences of yet another major event that could have real implications for the 2024 election. As has been our recent tendency, some Democrats descended into the pit of despair. The sentiment was embodied by this now infamous quote from a “Senior House Democrat” given to Axios:

“We've all resigned ourselves to a second Trump presidency."

This is an absurd thing to say more than 100 days from the election in a narrow race, but it is a version, albeit an extreme one, of what I’ve heard from professional Democrats over the last few days.

Biden’s debate performance and his halting, defensive efforts to right the ship battered the anti-Trump forces. No one felt optimistic about the state of the race before the shooting; and then the initial coverage of the incident made Trump seem more sympathetic and heroic just as his convention was about to begin.

During his interview with NBC News's Lester Holt, Biden was asked about the political implications of the assassination attempt:

LESTER HOLT: Mr. President, you’ve been in politics a very long time, so let — let’s speak frankly. We’re all adults here. Has this shooting changed the trajectory of this race?

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: I don’t know. And you don’t know either.

Trying to turn the President of the United States into a political pundit is an odd use of limited time during an interview, but Holt’s question reiterates what most in the press and politics are thinking — Biden’s long(ish) odds just got longer.

The assassination attempt on a former President and current presidential candidate is historic. Still, I am not sure it will shake up the race in the ways many expect.