Would Kamala Harris Have a Better Chance than Biden?

Pro-Biden folks have argued that Harris would fare worse than Biden, are they right?

Yesterday, the New York Times reported that the Biden Campaign entered the field with a survey testing how Vice President Kamala Harris would fare against Trump. Internal polling like this rarely leaks from the tight-lipped Biden operation. It is also notable in light of something included in the story:

The effort comes as some longtime aides and advisers to Mr. Biden are said to have become increasingly convinced that he will have to step aside from the campaign, and in recent days have been trying to come up with ways to persuade him that he should, The New York Times reported on Thursday. A growing number of prominent lawmakers have called for Mr. Biden to drop out or suggest he should reconsider his plans to run.

You often hear this argument from Democrats who believe the debate deeply damaged Biden. Sure, Biden is a long shot, but Harris would fare no better.

If Biden steps aside, Kamala Harris would undoubtedly be the person to replace Biden on the ticket. Is she really a better option? Answering hypotheticals is an exercise in futility, but we do have some data and information from which to draw an educated analysis.

What the Polls Can Tell Us

Polling is imprecise (hence the margin of error) and polling hypothetical situations is particularly imprecise. The picture is cloudy because this is happening in the middle of a massive media firestorm taking place over a holiday weekend. But here’s what we know:

Before the debate, there was little evidence in the polls that Kamala Harris would be a better candidate than Biden. She generally did a few points worse than the President in head-to-head matchups with Trump. That has changed since the debate. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released on Thursday found Biden losing to Trump by 1, but Harris leading by 2.

That’s the first poll I have seen that showed Harris in the lead. That lead and the disparity with Biden are well within the margin of error, so I hesitate to read too much into it. A few days before, an Emerson College poll showed Biden performing 3 points better than Harris against Trump, with both behind the former President.