The voters that disapprove of both Biden and Trump could be key to the election: Here's how to win them back
Dan - When I encourage our volunteers at Indivisible Marin to post about Biden's accomplishments on social media or share with friends, they invariably say, "Can you send me a good graphic that I can share, or a concise top 10 list?" I've searched for such a list with some of his more recent accomplishments (new Office of Gun Prevention Violence led by Maxwell Frost, as an example) but haven't found one. We in the grassroots who want to be messengers need more easily findable and accessible tools! The DNC has the Greenfly app but the graphics and messages are so-so. The White House has great stuff they post to platforms like X or Instagram but they aren't easily "grabbable" to pull off that platform and reshare on a platform like Facebook which is an important place to reach the older double haters. Can you help send this SOS up the flagpole at the Biden/Harris campaign? Or maybe Crooked Media could create your own graphics...something with young, smart, multi-racial resonance. The most important request is a great sharable image with Biden's top ten accomplishments in under 100 words! Unlike the TV ads, which I question whether they reach many of the younger people who are disaffected from Dems, this messaging effort would be free. We're ready and waiting to post GOOD content. If we repeatedly post so-so content, our social friends will start to tune us out. But frustratingly, good stuff is very hard to find and access. Thanks for any help you can provide!! PS - I know of some of the groups you have cited who develop content..but the B/H campaign is spending lots of money on very professional imagery...we need to get our hands on it easily, in a way the average volunteer can do independently..ie not a bunch of separate keystrokes or cut and pastes etc. Thanks, again!
Does no one pay attention to anything but their own narrow world? Some of my friends and family who believe in democracy as we wish it to be are shutting down rather than engaging. That, in my opinion, is very dangerous. It may be depressing and uncomfortable, but people better start paying attention or we will have a convicted felon in the White House in 2024.
While we will need to emphasize the president’s achievements, one major thing missing from this is the absolute threat to democracy of a second Trump term. This IS NOT an ordinary election. I fully blame the media. I have seen lots of touting from the admin on social media and Joe’s speeches and trips around the country. So I don’t want to hear they he has terrible messaging. I agree with Tom Bonier’s assessment of this poll. It’s “good” these so-called double haters can be turned but what voters did they poll? No one I know-- and I live in PA.
Thanks to you and to Simon Rosenberg (who was even quicker out with the anti-panic post than you!). No coincidence that you are messaging guys. The Democratic penchant for panic is going to doom us long before these polls.
What is interesting to me about these is that these polls read like a referendum on Biden and the times he is in. Trump seems to be almost like an unknown challenger -- these look like Midterm results, not General election results. I think that is a consequence of the fact that it is a year out and there is no real campaign yet and that, unless you are a court nerd, Trump hasn’t been in the headlines much lately.
I feel pretty sure that if we can get to a choice between real Biden and real Trump, these numbers will look better. The generic Dem does much better. It’s just a matter of riding out the panic and not jumping over a cliff and nominating Dean Phillips in a moment of blind hysteria.
Be strong, Democrats. Obama was losing at this point in his re-elect too. Hang in there, hold the course, don’t panic and work your fucking asses off
Thanks Dan I knew you would pull me back down to earth. NYT seems to relish writing these things. It really bugs me.
As always Dan thank you for the soothing analysis. Honestly if I'd seen these polls alone without the newsletter I probably would've lost it and there's an excellent chance they would've ruined my day. Recently i was listening to an interview Mike Podhorzer ( a director/pollster Dan might might be familiar with ) he commented how no one should be paying to many attention to polls ( nor look to them for comfort / reassurance - a habit I'm working damn hard to break ). As for Judith's comment about people shutting down it's hard not to - especially when the "nightmare" is threatening to return. But I'm guessing as long as the GOP is authoritarian ( with or without Trump) every election will be a high stakes one. I may in fact need to go back therapy.
I’m curious how much damage Biden’s stance on Gaza will cause with the liberal base. Objectors are a sizable contingent and growing larger…
Thanks, Dan. As always, substituting your analysis for the scare headline is reassuring that what’s broken cam be fixed by hard work.
This isn’t pretty, but I seem to remember that Obama’s polls at a similar time in 2012 looked grim for his re-election. So people got to work.
Not only can each of us reach out to any “double haters” in our immediate personal lives, but anyone on social media can easily reach multiples of that number, a tool not available to you in 2012. And there are so many get out the vote orgs now that there’s no excuse for failing to involve oneself.
Long past time to go on the attack against hack media outlets & hack pollsters.
As someone who has worked in media for nearly 30 years, I trust very little the NYTimes has to say these days, especially about U.S. politics. And I tell everyone I know just that.
Polls this far out mean very little. But the media has made it clear - they are going to stand *AGAINST* Biden & Democrats, in part because some of them are angry that Biden & Dems haven't been the fountain of content & stories the Trump monsters were.
"How dare Biden & Democrats try to govern like adults! Don't they know we need clicks & attention?!"
So, like I've said before, go after the careers of those in media attacking Biden & Dems. Do whatever it takes, other than physically harming them. Cut their legs out from under them, and make sure they know why they're losing what they care about. Make them afraid to push crap like what the NYTimes did.
And if you can harm the bottom line of news organizations choosing clickbait over real journalism, all the better.
Any media org nominally producing news that chooses excitement over informing should not be allowed to call itself news.
Dan - a question and a comment. Question: who were the 3662 people who answered their phone for this poll? Under methodology, there is no breakdown by age, sex or political affiliation. Comment: the NYT has changed A LOT in the past years. Once a reliable source of information, it has been skewing to the right for quite some time now. Recall the headline (above the fold) when Trump was indicted for absconding with classified documents; “Momentous Scene in Miami as Trump Pleads Not Guilty.” Of all the headlines, this is what the NYT ran with.
Final thought: not that we shouldn’t all be paying attention and working hard to make sure Biden is elected and Donald Trump is NOT elected but remember 2022 and the RED WAVE that every outlet and every poll was predicting. And remember, THERE WAS NO RED WAVE.
We’re a year out. We all need to focus and get to work!!!
“In summary, the “Double Haters” are slightly more Republican, male, and college-educated than the overall electorate. This group also encompasses a large number of people who voted for Trump in 2016 but flipped to Biden in 2020.”
So, Joe Rogan fans!
I think reaching this group with Biden’s accomplishments is going to be a lot harder than simply emphasizing the dangers of a second Trump candidacy. People like this seem to define themselves by what they’re against rather than actively believing IN something.
Great analysis, Dan thank you so much
You know, the more I think about it, the more dumbfounded I am that Biden doesn’t step down. Does he honestly think nobody else in the party could be a better leader? Does he truly think that at 80 he is still top of his game? It has to be ego. Such a terrible flaw.
I feel that I need to escape into "fantasy land" for a little while after this. Is there ANY chance that Biden would recognise that a younger candidate might save us from Trump. My fantasy: top Dems huddle with best potential candidates and hold a primary of ONLY candidates we know have appeal. Feels like we are risking too much with Biden, even though he has proven a far better president than many expected.
Knocking on doors in Virginia, I spoke with two people, a woman from Costa Rico and a man from Peru, both citizens, both living in different districts. Clearly, they were listening to the same media. Their concerns: legalized marijuana that children were using and coming to school stoned and the usual "I came here legally."
What is the best message for them? It's the first time I have heard the anti legal marijuana issue
As Nancy Pelosi says... don't agonize... organize! Tried to explain to someone yesterday about the massive movement that got Biden elected... was all about turnout. I can barely move people in my world off the sidelines right now because things are 'good'. The promise of good vs the threat of evil was palpable in 2020.