With all due respect, Dan, I think you guys are leading us all off a cliff here. Biden is a known, baked in quantity. If he stays in the race and his party and the media let him, there can be an instant pivot to Trump. Anything else — dragging it out and ending up the the status quo, switching to Harris and arguing about back room deals and who the VP should be, or holding an open primary and watching what’s been taking place on social media move to prime time TV — any other scenario keeps the focus on the Dems and not to their advantage. The coverage for 3 weeks has been horrible for Biden — the worst I’ve ever seen. No wonder he’s sliding in some swing state polls. He’s still holding his own in the popular vote and no reason to think any of that polling drop is permanent. What are you and the PodPeople and the party leaders possibly thinking is a good idea about jumping on a cliff into the unknown at a moment like this?
ETA: to be clear, I am asking you to convince me. You are all so sure you are right and I’m so sure you aren’t. We are all on the same side, want the same outcome, and I don’t classify you as one as one of the people who never wanted Biden to run again and see this as your chance to remove him.
There are many, many people who want Biden to stay in, even if they are worried about him. If the party does what they are apparently poised to do, it’s going to be crucial to bring everyone along. When I am asked to defend/explain what the party is doing, I’m at a loss. Help me here!!
(I taught a seminar of political science interns last night — kids who have either spent a semester in DC or are headed there in the fall. Of the dozen or so who showed up, most were Dems. One kiddo is a Rep. All had seen the debate. All were worried sick. Only one student could see a possible update to Biden stepping down but most were oppressed and, really surprising to me, two guys were furious with the party for what they saw as disloyalty and backstabbing. They aren’t particular Biden fans but they think he can win and is being treated shabbily. Anyway, they were looking to me for explanations and reassurance and I had none. If you can persuade me, I can pass it on.)
The only place Dan is trying to lead us, and the only thing within our individual control, and the thing that remains constant regardless of who is at the top of the anti-MAGA ticket is each and every one of us DOING THE WORK to defeat MAGA.
Meanwhile, here is what you could have told your students: In the debate, Biden failed to prosecute the case against Trump. In his media interviews since then, he has not only failed to pivot every question to a prosecution of Trump, he was defensive and made it all about him. If the race is a referendum on Biden, we lose. If the race is a referendum on Trump, we just might win. So not only have we lost time, we're now in a hole the Biden campaign has dug deeper since the debate. If Biden and his campaign can turn that around, they need to do that yesterday. If not, then we need a ticket and campaign that will. Remind your political science interns that politics is the path to policy that impacts real people. It is not a place for sentimentality.
Pretty condescending and dismissive of my students. They weren’t being “sentimental.” They watched the debate. We didn’t discuss the subsequent media events much because while I thought he did a perfectly good Joe Biden kind of job, especially in the press conference where I thought he was excellent, they *were* all about Biden. That was by the interviewers’ design, though. Did we watch the same events? I heard Biden repeatedly try to pivot to Trump and Stephanopoulus (sorry about that, George, I’m sure that’s probably not how you spell it) and to some extent Holt, just kept bringing it back to Biden. If you are going to use that as evidence about whether he can turn the page, you should account for the fact that no one has wanted to let him.
(And of course Biden would need to do an enormous amount of work to do what the debate was supposed to accomplish — change the trajectory of the race. Whoever let him go out on the stage feeling the way that he did has a lot to answer for. I’m not saying it’s a cakewalk if he stays, I just think it’s the least risky option that has a shot at working.)
My students - at least the two who surprised me last night, are the farthest thing from sentimental. It’s their future we are fucking up right now. They have a pretty good grasp of the party dynamics that led to Biden being a consensus candidate in 2020 and they do not believe anyone else could have kept the pro-democracy coalition together and beaten Trump. If I understood what they were saying correctly, they think the same dynamics hold today, that there will be intraparty opposition to Harris (and at least one of them didn’t want to bet democracy on whether the country was ready to elect a women in sufficient numbers to win the EC.)
So they are grateful to Biden and they think we still need him to fill the role he filled in 2020. They are dismayed at the attacks because they think an adversarial relationship is less likely to help Biden win q. I have no doubt if they saw another path that seemed likelier to defeat Trump, they’d still be grateful to Biden, and they might be sorry that a guy they like is being treated like garbage by his party rather than celebrated as valuable elder or something (I really don’t know — Putting words in their mouths at this point.). But they wouldn’t support him for sentimental reasons if they thought he was going to lose.
(I also explained that much of what looks like ungrateful backstabbing to them is really just House members in endangered seats creating slave between themselves and an unpopular incumbent. That’s not disloyalty or nefarious behavior, it’s politics, and leadership in both houses have signaled that it’s okay with them if a member feels s/he has to cut loose. Biden himself told Lester Hold that he understands the dynamic and isn’t taking it personally.)
I saw no mention of sentimentality until you brought it up.
Ultimately all this furor was triggered by Biden. As a longtime Biden admirer I was excited to watch the debate. Within 30 seconds I was horrified to see a major presidential candidate rhetorically defenseless, confused and enfeebled. It got no better. And “whoever let him go out on that stage”? Biden’s a 60-year political professional. He’s sort’a in charge of himself.
I haven’t seen anyone treat him like garbage. He knows the phrase from the 19th century, “Politics ain’t beanbag.”
I don't mean to insult or condescend to your students, so I'll try again.
Maybe the thing to do is to have a discussion about how concerns of "disloyalty", "backstabbing", and "being treated shabbily" relate to electoral politics and policy.
If Biden and his campaign can campaign as if our country depends on it, then good on them. If they can't or won't, we need someone with a campaign who can and will. There is nothing disloyal, backstabbing, or shabby about that.
I agree with you Carrie. I remind myself as well thatt power in politics is about building on relationships, motives, resources and PERCEPTIONS. (Power is not a physcial object).
This is what President Biden is losing--the perceptions game. And it could cost us a winnable election because he cannot build the energy for a victory we desperately need.
The fact is, whether it's Biden or someone new, either ticket MIGHT lose and either ticket CAN win. No matter who is on the ticket, it comes down to US doing the work. And the work includes not running around like Chicken Little screaming that we've already lost — a SUREFIRE way to depress turnout in the people who hear your message.
No one wants to be called Blue MAGA, but it's time to fall in line and do the fucking work.
But the inherent criticism in the polls has been there since Biden announced. What pushed it past the tipping point was the debate. I don’t see the talk weakening Joe’s chances. I see it as Joe’s newly revealed feebleness (when without prepared remarks) sparking strong alarm against a guy with looney-bin energy that masquerades as strength.
I have been a Biden admirer for decades, and think he’s been an excellent president. But the debate and the unscripted events, since then, have ranked from horrifying and abysmal to, at best, weak and feeble. To my mind, though I realize not all will agree.
I do not want to see Biden put through this. And, I think he would lose.
Today the polls show Trump ahead by 2 points, a statistical tie, so why the screeching mob demanding Biden drop out? It's the media and the handwringing politicians, NOT the voters.
Clinton had high negatives going into the campaign. But the Party had anointed her as Obama’s successor. Biden sat it out for that very reason. Sanders got in and for all intents and purposes was ignored. The night before the election, Sanders was not on the platform with Clinton. His followers sat on their hands the next day.
History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes. People have been concerned about Biden’s age since 2020. Biden called himself a transition president at the time. He apparently saw that as a slick political move.
His negatives now make Clinton’s look minor. Many of us don’t trust him. Many of us believe that for whatever reason the people in position to know about his cognitive health lied to us. A week ago the Party was trying to tell us to get over ourselves and abide by the Party’s choice. Brilliant strategy, that. Treat us like MAGA Republicans. They demonstrated just how well they know us and what they think of us.
The infinitesimal attention span of the general public often hurts defenders of democracy - e.g., the apparent widespread memory loss about just how awful TFG's years in office were. But I think here this ability to forget last week will work for us. It seems to me that excitement and relief will quickly snowball into momentum and unity behind a new ticket.
Can you think for a minute what message switching out a candidate sends to the public? “Oops! We screwed up! We told you this guy was the right person to lead the country but scratch that. He performed abysmally in a debate and there is a chance that he’s cognitively impaired and he really doesn’t speak very well and we’re afraid we’re going to lose. So, now we’re tell you that this new person who you sort of know is the one. Except some of us don’t like her. We want a guy you have never heard of from Pennsylvania, we think he’s the one. Unless it’s the guy from California. It’s one of these guys for sure.”
It’s a bad message even if there is a seamless switch over to Harris (and watching the really awful chaos and the leaking about the chaos in the leadership right now, I have zero confidence in that.
The Dems are running against a party whose nominee never admits he is wrong about anything. Dems will be admitting they were wrong about the most important thing. I know they can try to spin it differently but message control is not their thing these days.
We see this from the perspective of people are are agonizing one this and who want closure and want to move past this. That’s what it seems to you that an excitement and relief over the switch will produce a positive result.
A whole lot of Americans are going to want to know why the party is dumping their president because he’s old and why if that is suddenly disqualifying now, they should believe anything else the party tells them.
I was just stunned in my class last night by the anger of the two male students at what they see is a lack of gratitude for and betrayal of a president who has done a good job and hasn’t convinced them that he can’t continue to so.
We are in such uncharted territory with so many unknowns.
Please remember though that what you describe was not some whimsical tour that Dem leadership decided would be a fun outing. It’s a deadly serious result of ignoring polls for a year, the candidate and campaign hiding Biden’s declining powers, and the result of a public face-plant in front of 50 million viewers.
I don’t buy the conspiracy. There are multiple reasons that his poll numbers could be low. If the campaign or the admin or the family thought he was declining in a significant way that required “hiding,” they wouldn’t have pushed for this totally optional debate. They didn’t just think he was going to hold his own, they thought he would win in definitive enough terms that it would settle the age issue once and for all and change the trajectory of the race.
I just don’t see the support for a conspiracy that could never have been expected to end well when there is a simpler explanation.
“Oops! We screwed up! We told you this guy was the right person to lead the country but scratch that. He performed abysmally in a debate and there is a chance that he’s cognitive impaired and he really doesn’t speak very well and we’re afraid we’re going to lose. So, now we’re tell you that this new person who you sort of know is the one."
Can we parse that more than hyperbole please?
Admitting fault or mistakes is not a sign of weakness. It would be an honest admission of today's sentiment.
Fear is a strong driver. We feel it daily.
We have plenty of time to win the election, save Democracy, change the trajectory of the world and still get home in time for Thanksgiving.
Honesty is the very best way to start getting there.
I am saying that it is possible that the average nonpartisan voter is not going to see it in the way you do, and I’m offering a possible interpretation that someone might plausibly put on the events you’d like to see unfold. Refreshing honestly to you can look like “if you didn’t screw it up you wouldn’t need to be honest now.”
If you are going to ask people to trust you on a giant unknown risk to their lives and security, it seems to me that it would be smart to try to understand how they think and what they would need to see in order to trust.
The fact that everyone who is certain about the best course of action for the Dems right now is also certain that everyone (or at least most everyone) is going to view the world through the exact same lens they do gives me hives.
Doesn’t the fact that you and I, people on the same team trying to reach the same goal, disagree dramatically on this most fundamental question of how a late term Biden replacement will be perceived, give you any doubt at all that you might be wrong about how a majority of people will perceive this?
My training is to understand politics independently of what my own preferences are so I can understand how it works, not just how I’d like it to work.
And my training tells me that anyone who feels pretty sure they know how a late term nomination shift is going to be perceived, and what is likely to follow, should be a little less certain. We just have no evidence to base those certainties on.
Being certain that you know how things will turn out can give you the sense that an inherently risky course of action is less risky than it really is. You are assuming away the riskiness and imposing your certainties.
I cannot do that. I see multiple risks and while there are certainly more than I like attached to sticking with Biden, we also have quite a bit of empirical knowledge that can help us modify those risks somewhat.
We are really in unknown territory with some of the switching alternatives. I don’t see many political scientists or historians — people who are trained to be relatively clear-eyed about human nature and for whom wishful thinking is a professional hazard — recommending that Biden get out of the race. Most of the ones I follow think that the very act of changing course and trying to sell it to the public is so costly to a party that you only do it is you are certain that the original candidate can’t win. And they look at the evidence and, so far anyway, that’s not what it says.
I think that the Dem leadership is absolutely trying to understand how people are thinking about this and how to keep their trust. If I didn’t think that, I wouldn’t be a Democrat.
I agree this is not an ideal situation. But this stems from the candidate snd his campaign hiding the truth about his decline. I am a Biden admirer, and I was shocked and horrified at the debate. And angry at what I saw as deception. Since then, I see well-meaning people honestly scrambling for an answer. I don’t demand that people who want Biden to stay in the race “prove” he can find the energy and vigor to win. You can’t prove something like that. Nor can you prove that an alternate course will be better. We all just need to unite when the decision is made.
"Doesn’t the fact that you and I, people on the same team trying to reach the same goal, disagree dramatically on this most fundamental question of how a late term Biden replacement will be perceived, give you any doubt at all that you might be wrong about how a majority of people will perceive this?"
Nope. None whatsoever.
You have mentioned your training and involvement with political science and interns three times now I believe. It's ok, you don't have to shove credentials in our faces, we're all friends here.
What I'm hearing is risk aversion. Multiple times you have calculated risk and found that a candidate change is more hazardous to outcome than no change.
I fundamentally disagree. I perceive a very different calculus *IF*, and I mean IF, the following is observed:
A Democrat platform that represents what we actually want, not what Boomers want:
A Democrat platform that Gets The Money Out.
Lots and lots of good people can represent that platform.
In short, here is my preferred calculus:
Platform > Ticket
Right now the platform is More Biden For The Masses, and the masses are pissed about it. No amount of More Biden is going to fix that.
Your points about personal loyalty to President Biden and indecisiveness among Democrats are well taken. But personal affinity toward any individual elected official is secondary to the National Interest. To say that someone should remain in the highest office in the land simply because you believe they are being treated unfairly is irrational.
And, unfortunately, this is what some Democrats are currently doing. They are telling pollsters and each other they think that Vice President Kamala Harris is more electable and would do a better job of approaching certain issues like Israel/Palestine, for example, but that Joe Biden is a “victim,” so we have to support him no matter what.
This mentality is a recipe for disaster. No one knows for sure what will happen regardless of who the Democratic nominee for President is, but it is more than time to shake up the race.
Hence, President Joe Biden needs to do the honorable thing by suspending his re-election campaign and endorsing Vice President Harris. There is way too much to lose, at this moment, to let pride and ego determine whether he continues on with his lost cause of a campaign to be re-elected as President.
Agree! And how reasonable is it for Ds to push Biden out because he is “not competent” to run but allow him to continue running the country until Jan 2025? No matter how “kindly” Biden is pushed aside….I already feel dirty.
The problem is we don't know how a "new ticket" (whoever that may be) will impact the Biden base and coalition that actually won in 2020. Why can't we have excitement and enthusiasm now for the great presidency and ongoing work of the Biden administration??
Yes, but the bigger problem is that we have a current ticket that is on a track to lose.
I am a Biden admirer since the early 90s. I do have enthusiasm and admiration for his very great presidency. But the Joe Biden I have seen since the debate can’t prosecute an election against his lunatic opponent.
“On track to lose” is not meaningful right now. The elections 3+ months away. Polls are a snapshot of right now, when Biden has had the worst the weeks of press coverage on the planet and Trump has had the luckiest breaks you could possibly imagine.
Biden is behind. Not losing. You don’t lose until there is an election. I think people get very confused about what polls are and what they can tell us.
Biden obviously needs to do something to change the trajectory of the race. He’s got a crackerjack team but it’s hard to do that when you are the object of constant incoming fire from all sides. It freezes the campaign in a defensive posture.
But he doesn’t have to change it all that much and he won’t be behind any more. If the media would realize it’s not their job to chose the president, or to push one lot of office, but just to give us the facts for us to do the choosing, and if they get back to covering a rave between two people, the polls will change anyway. The relentless coverage, along with the media’s narrative that Biden has long been incapacitated but that his people conspired to hide it from a vigilant press corps, is damaging to the Biden campaign right now. There is no evidence that Biden has any long term hidden decline or that anyone conspired to hide it. Pretty weird way to hide it when you send your guy out on an optional, early debate of your own choosing. They didn’t think what happened would happen. They obviously thought. He would win the debate.
But the media’s conviction that they have been dissed and duped and must now double down is producing a spate of articles with vague intimations of Biden being confused when he travels and having some hours of the day when he’s sharpest and when they prefer to schedule his speaking events (so do I, btw. Always have and I schedule my classes and the talks accordingly. Also have hours when I am at my best for writing and I guard them with my life. Doesn’t make me demented but it sure boosts my productivity.)
The media determination to see something nefarious in everything they report is unprofessional and damaging and not what freedom of the press is about.
It’s in turn worrying Biden’s voters and concerning the country and pushing down his poll numbers. The party leaders, who were initially supportive of Biden or silent, are now in full blown panic.
This situation is driving itself to a conclusion I hate to see because I suspect (don’t know) that it makes it really hard to beat Trump.
The one thing we need to do is keep the public attention fixed on remembering who Donald Trump is and realizing how much worse he is than he was 4 years ago (when he was fomenting an insurrection.). He wants to job to keep himself out prison. And unlike last time, this term he will be surrounded by people who will use his narcissism, which makes
him very easy to manipulate, to force on us an illiberal Christian nationalist agenda that runs counter to the Constitution in every respect.
We should follow whatever course allows us to start saying that everyday in every way. That’s how you beat Trump. Not by spending months exposing the Dem Party’s internal divisions and anxieties for all the world to see. There is time to do that once we have secured democracy.
Please show me where the data is that Biden is on track to lose. According to 538, Biden is still (even after all the negative coverage of Biden for weeks and the positive coverage on Trump, espec this week) slightly ahead in electoral college.
A good question. But.... we don't have it, and we don't seem to be on a path to it. I think there is so much sadness and exhaustion among Dems right now that any reasonable ticket will lead to an outpouring of excitement. I'm not a total Polyanna; I have no illusions that it would be my personal dream ticket. But it's likely to be a much stronger one.
Reacting from fear and exhaustion is exactly the problem. That’s why I keep trying to do some form of risk analysis. We are basing some pretty consequential decisions on “feelings” and “beliefs” and “guesses”. Even the polls we have don’t tell us about the future. They are snapshots of now, three weeks into feral media coverage and catastrophic thinking by party members (while the Rep candidates gets the luckiest breaks of anyone I’ve ever seen!)
None of this is how we should be making a decision like this.
When I say “convince me” I mean I need something better than the gut feelings of torture people. Because tortured people are notoriously famous for selling out everything in order to make the pain or the torture stop. I’m trying to think a little longer term than that.
Yes. But tell me when anyone had “proof” of future events.
As much as I want Dems to win this election, I am neither fearful nor exhausted. I saw the debate, and as a longtime Biden supporter, I was horrified. I knew at that moment he couldn’t win.
And the next day, a lot of experienced, intelligent, professional politicians agreed. Then more, and more as Biden made additional unscripted appearances.
None of this is satisfying to me. I think he has been a more consequential president than any in the last 50 years.
The only proof we’ll have of the risks his candidacy carries is a loss in November.
Yes, polls are imperfect. Is there any other mechanism in the world that measures how people are thinking and feeling today, so as to try to project what trend lines may exist? It seems to me that the last two years of polls that showed a steadily growing unease with Biden’s age were pretty spot-on.
Biden slow-walks any change to the convention. Then we're all told it's too late to change anything, don't even think about it, change itself is now divisive.
This has been haunting me, IDK why. You started with credentials and now stand "ready to be convinced"? I'm confused.
I'm not trying to be antagonistic, but you have specifically mentioned your students in political science, your interns in political science, your writing(s) and your pre-prepared "talks".
But my question was, if you teach political science, what do you teach your students?
And, what age group are your students? What age group are you accustomed to addressing when you mention your students & interns?
I don’t really think of telling people where I am coming from as offering credentials. One of the things I do tell my students is that they should always consider the source of the information they are consuming — it will help them know how to evaluate it. That’s the context in which I am offering the info, in the same way as some people here say they have been involved in grass roots activism and their perspective is based on talking to people on the ground, or a lawyer might offer a legal perspective. I see that it bothers you and I’m sorry that you are taking it as a reflection on you or the conversation. I’m basically saying, I am deeply engaged in this topic, and I come at it from an evidence based, theoretically informed social science perspective. I don’t think that makes what I say to be the last word on anything, but I do think it makes it a valuable contribution
I can’t find the line you are referring to where you said I was open to persuasion or whatever it is, but if I didn’t make it clear, I have no idea what the best course of action is here. And yes, if you were the one who called me “risk averse,” then at least when it comes to saving democracy, I am. I do want the least risky path. I realize you disagree, but from what I know, open conventions are almost certain to end in a party loss. There are lots of reasons for that, and I still say “almost certain.” I can’t swear that some crazy series of events might bring a shattered Democratic coalition back together and also appeal to independent voters, but I can’t imagine it and more to the point, none of the people who advocate that path have been able to tell me what it looks like either.
I teach college level political science and have done for nearly 40 yrs. Mostly American politics but some other stuff too. The basic skill I work on teaching is critical, analytic thinking about American politics. In the meeting I mentioned in the comment that i think you are referring to, students asked me to hold a currents events session on everything that had been happening in the last month. They were especially focused on the presidential immunity case and since they had barely noticed the one striking down the Chevron doctrine, we talked about that too. That part of the session was mostly me talking, but when we got to the election they had a lot to say. Mostly Dems in that class. One Rep. I need to circle back to him and get his take. He was pretty quiet in class, maybe just trying to be tactful, I don’t know.
All of those students who showed up are either former DC interns I have supervised or future interns going to DC next month. I direct the program for my department and I commute once a week and teach them in DC which is great fun for me as they are working on the Hill, in think tanks, at the WH, in various advocacy groups — all over really. Watching them become professionals and apply what they are learning to their actual political work is a real kick for me
Hope I’ve told you enough about this for it to stop bothering you. It’s not mysterious, it’s just my job and one I feel very lucky to have.
Thank you for this reality check. Much as I love the Crooked crew, I'm torn on the question of Biden stepping down whereas they appear to be all in.
It would appease the hysterical Dems who've been calling for his head since the debate (and before), but those people were always going to vote for the Democrat--Joe or no. The people who will decide this election don't know what a Gavin Newsom is. They're going to roll out of bed on the 5th and decide whether it's worth their time to bother voting. Either way, our work as the actively engaged remains the same.
The data just isn't there. I'd feel differently if Kamala were five points up. But she and Joe are effectively tied. And if you're TFG, why would you even agree to debate her? You've already had a "perfect debate" and wouldn't want to give her the opportunity.
Here’s a great response you could use with your students (borrowed from a post from Dan Pfeiffer’s Substack comments):
Adonai Pierre
18 mins ago
We will win this! I am sharing my battle-tested voter pitch with you all:
Elections are not beauty pageant contests. The media culture in the US has transformed politics into a show business or entertainment industry. However, in real life, as we learned painfully from Mitch McConnell, "Elections Have Consequences."
In fact, for many people, it can be a matter of life or death:
-Whether you can get an abortion procedure if your life is in danger,
-Whether your healthcare will be stripped away while you are dealing with a major illness,
-Whether you can feel safe attending an event without the fear of being shot with an AR-15,
-Whether a family can seek due process for asylum because their life is at risk in their home country.
All these issues are determined by decisions made by elected politicians, whether to take action or ignore them.
So, no, an election is not where you pick the best, strongest-looking man to entertain you. The person you elect can have the power of life or death over you on various issues.
Thus, based on their records, who do you trust to make the right decision for your life in the Oval Office when these crucial issues arise?
Donald Trump, the man who bankrupted so many businesses, was found liable for fraud multiple times, liable for sexual assault, and convicted felon?
Thanks, as always, for a frank assessment. I will offer this. Many people want to do the work. As an organizer, I've seen an uptick in the last two weeks of people wanting to do something. I'm organizing a door knocking crew to hold the MN senate AND turn out the vote. People came up to me last night and said, "We are in. What should I do next?" At this point, this is about values. What future do you want for you and your family and what candidate is most likely to help us move in that direction? I don't care which Dem runs for President - they will be more aligned with the future I want for my grandchildren, community and state than any MAGA republican.
I love how u just casually say Trump is “heavily favored” to win. On 538 alone Biden has been favored the last week, with his electoral votes increasing by 6. So where is all this incontrovertible proof u all take for granted w one sentence in this piece? Highly debatable to say the least. We know u want him to drop out but be real w ur readers. Stop presenting this as tho it’s a fait accompli where Biden is concerned. It’s not. It’s July.
The only proof of the outcome of an election is the result. Until then, everybody is just following the path their instinct, experience and intelligence dictate. Let’s just all assume we all have that good intention.
538’s model is an anomaly. It’s own polling averages disagree with it. Nate Silver, the creator of the original model, criticizes it harshly. His model, now independent of 538 , has a heavy chance of Biden losing. There is no proof possible for a future event.
Everyone is trying to win. At this point, there is not an agreed-upon path. But there will be. Biden or otherwise.
Well, I saw many people quoting 538 a couple weeks ago when Biden was trailing to bolster their case that Biden must drop out - so it seems only fair to factor it in now. Regardless, he has also gained in several other polls and the ones he trails in are close. But it’s also a self fulfilling prophecy - the nonstop Biden bashing in the media bc of the open question among Dems has absolutely damaged him in the polls - how could it not? Additionally, it is July. Polls will tighten. The last thing we need right now is the absolute chaos of the totally unknown legal disasters that await should we try to change the ticket this late - and the possibility of another election decided by Clarence Thomas.
Polls will tighten? Why? Because they always do? You seem to forget that every election has a loser for whom the polls might not have tightened.
What legal disasters? The threat of the Heritage Foundation suing to make Joe Biden run for president? If he steps out, he will do so voluntarily. But you think a court will order him to run or order the DNC to nominate him?
That is scare talk from the GOP. Biden isn’t the nominee until the DNC offers him the nomination and he accepts. Political parties are free to create or modify their own rules as to the nomination.
What do you suppose would happen if a health or family issue made a nominee drop out at this stage? That somehow an opposing political party could force the DNC to go forward with an unwilling or unable candidate? That makes no sense.
The party leadership has a lot of things to decide should Joe drop out. All of them have to do with winning an election, whomever the candidate.
Ur truly delusional if u think that GOP lawyers won’t do everything they can to bury us in lawsuits to keep a new Dem ticket (who didn’t win a primary) off the ballot in any state they have influence over. They’re already trying to do it w Biden in OH. Do u know how many election lawsuits they’ve already filed? Dozens. Not to mention the idea of forfeiting the massive power of incumbency for an unknown outcome. We have no clue how any other ticket would actually poll or perform in a general. The idea that any other ticket would some how be a better option is simply false. It’s a massive risk. And seeing what a disastrous public disgrace Dem leaders have caused the party with this constant leaking to the media/publishing statements in the press - it’s beyond wishful thinking to think this same disorganized, undisciplined party that has spent the last 3 weeks damaging their own incumbent could pull off selecting, vetting, funding and getting a new Dem ticket on the ballot in all 50 states.
THIS is why Biden (mostly) failed so badly in that debate. Kamala Harris would have demolished Trump because all it took was some coherent jabs to make the fat bastard look like the mentally ill tyrant that he is. It was so easy and Joe - God bless him, decent man and truly great president with a long record of accomplishments - was not up for that job and isn't getting better.
It sucks and it's a tragedy. But it doesn't have to be a lasting one if Biden steps aside.
Last week we witnessed the near assassination of Donald Trump, probably by another disturbed young male with a military style assault rifle. Ever dince the "debate" we have been witnessing the slow drip political assassination of Joe Biden based on innuendo. This is definitely a Presidential race for the historians to pick at for a long time. Winning against Trump/Vance/MAGA will be very, very difficult. But we MUST WIN!
Running against that fascist, GOP witches brew plus the leadership of the Democratic party, plus big donors, plus the liberal pundits in the MSM might be impossible, even for the most substantive President we've had since FDR.
I hope our leadership and the pundits (and of course, with George Clooney's approval) have the magic solution ready to rollout. If they're relying on the Convention to sort this out, I fear we're headed for a replay of the 1968 debacle.
I checked with a friend who is a high level retired military leader, who supports Biden, to get his take on how to win this war. His immediate response...the Democratic party, local and leadership, need to double down in support of the President. Circle the wagons. If the President can't carry on into the next term develop a transition plan. Undermining the President through the media is the worst strategy to follow. And time is running out.
No one has a magic solution. Not sure I accept a retired military official of any level as an election expert.
We are all trying to win. No one is trying to dis’ Joe, disenfranchise voters, or turn the party into a plutocracy. What we all
want is a defeated Trump.
When we have a nominee, the important thing is to unite, work, volunteer, campaign, donate if able, call, text, door-knock, and vote. That’s how we will win, whether the nominee is Biden or not.
In the meantime, doubting each other’s motives today won’t help get us where we want to be.
I’ve changed and deleted my last comment bc i think the pressure on Biden to drop out is another ploy to bring chaos. Bottom line : it’s too late to change the nomination without enormous legal obstacles from the GOP & SCOTUS re: the ballot changes. They welcome this chaos.
Our best plan is to circle the wagons. Get it done. The MAGA agenda is hugely unpopular. They want us to give up in apathy.
Heather Cox Richardson, 7/18/24: "Paul Manafort walking onto the floor of the Republican National Convention yesterday illustrated that the Republican Party under Trump has become thoroughly corrupted into an authoritarian party aligned with foreign dictators." I think that succinctly sums it up and I haven't seen anyone else talk about this. I saw some mentions of Manafort, but not why it matters that he was there. I also haven't seen any long essays on women voters; women are mentioned as an afterthought. Maybe that's because women tend to be de-emphasized and marginalized. Abortion is still kryptonite for Trump and it's women voters who've been behind the state abortion rights ballot initiatives and there are about 11 more initiatives on the ballot in November. There are more women registered to vote then men. Mary Trump correctly stated that Trump-Vance is the most anti-women ticket ever. And, it's all out in the open, nothing subtle here. Trump was found to have raped E. Jean Carroll and has said lots and lots of misogynistic things about women, adding in racist comments for women of color and for Elizabeth Warren (Pocahontas). It's hard to believe, but Vance is even worse in public. Vance is completely against abortion with no exceptions for rape and incest, because a women who gets pregnant because of rape or incest is simply being inconvenienced. He believes that women should stay in abusive marriages and Project 2025 will cement that by eliminating no-fault divorce. I'm apparently one of his single, crazy cat ladies who've been ruining the country (I really need a T-shirt for this). I'm not sure if he hates me because I'm single, or crazy (am I crazy because I oppose everything that comes out of his mouth) or because I have a cat. But I am sure that Trump and Vance hate me for existing. Project 2025 will also eliminate contraception, including condoms (please tell the men in your lives). The list goes on and on. If you want another effective message for this campaign, how about putting women's rights front and center and not only concerning abortion (although that is critical). Since everyone loves polls how about putting some emphasis on the polls showing how much women don't like Trump, and not just "suburban women". And, I'd love to some new polls including Vance's anti-women comments. How about discussing all the various ways that Trump-Vance want to go back to the 1800s when women were property. Never underestimate women, especially women of color.
Hey there. I caught a video from AOC on my feed and she was great. She brought up the point that changing Biden could go into legal territory that leads us to the Supreme Court. She said she has been in these behind the scene meetings. Her point was no one offered a plan after President Biden steps down that would not lead to further chaos. She brought up the money received by Biden cannot be transferred, that not everyone wants Kamala, that the names mentioned don’t necessarily want to be President. Did you see her post? What are your thoughts?
If President Biden were to step down, he should also resign the presidency. That’d pretty much ensure that the Democratic nominee would be Harris, and the party could spend its very limited time picking her running mate.
He could give a speech extolling all the reasons he picked her to step in if he were to die in office, and then talk about deciding he wants to see while he’s still here how well she will do as president.
I don’t think he should step down at all, but if he does, it should be from the presidency as well as the race.
until someone pointed out that the Senate R’s would likely block confirmation of Harris’s pick for VP since it would leave the speaker of the house next in the line of succession.
All true. You can bet there will be legal challanges and attempts to keep the “ticket” off the ballot. Trump, MAGA (and Putin) will do all they can to disrupt the process. We are entering uncharted waters. Risky!
Recall in 2020 there was doubt Biden could win. Like many I believed the majority of voters recognized the threat to democracy. And We won! Then in 2022 polls and pundits predicted a red wave. Again we won. The threat to democracy has not subsided. The threat is higher! Voters know this. We who pay such close attention underestimate the average voter. We can win with Biden. Trump has not gained voters since 2020. Proof of this is his attempt to soften his positions to appeal to swing voters. It’s not working. He is a beatable candidate. My concern is Ds changing horses midstream so late in the race. An on-the-fly startup campaign will leave many cracks in the door for the opposition to enter and attack. This will take the candidate off message and put him/her in defense mode. When you’re defending you’re losing. I will support the D nominee no matter who it is but like most of you I’m a die hard informed voter.
Always talking about Biden stepping aside, but you idiots have NO plan or solution. And, you're arrogant enough to think that you can disenfranchise 14 million voters as though we can't think for ourselves..
We have a chance to destroy the GOP and folks like you are helping to destroy the Dems. SMH
I think you are assuming that folks voted for Biden. Respectfully, i know many people who actually voted for "the Democrat," and against Trump. And we now have new information about Biden's abilities that wasn't available six months ago. It seems a wishful reconstruction of the primaries to refer to Dem voters as being disenfranchized today by a change in our nominee.
The important thing is to not get split over this issue. I like and admire Biden strongly. But I realize he’s too old for this (to my mind). I can’t help but believe that all of us share some sliver of doubt about his ability to engage in a vigorous and wearing election.
No one is deliberately setting out to disenfranchise a single voter. Many believe, though, that events dictate a different candidate (as the point is to win). That will require a different process because of time. But no one has the goal of disenfranchisement.
What would happen if Biden had a health problem, or otherwise decided not to run? Would it be “you idiots have no plan”? Of course not. If Joe steps back, it will be his decision. People may have offered him advice or given him gloomy predictions, but he won’t be bullied into it. Not sure you could bully someone like him.
But at the end of the day, whether it’s Biden or someone else, we all have to come together and vote, persuade, work, donate if able, and win.
Very important Tom. We need to remember that parties choose candidates. That is what we are doing. Let's have this conversation and then--work together. We agree on a lot more than we disagree about right now.
Here’s my two cents in reading all these comments: none of us has much control over whether Biden steps down or stays - the only thing we have control over is how we chose to react and pivot once a final decision is made. The threat that Trump and MAGA pose is so extreme that we must - I underscore- we must get 100% behind our candidate. We will die on our sword if we succumb to infighting and chaos. There will be disappointment and perhaps anger. Set it aside for the greater good and let’s all unify against the threat we are facing. That’s the ONLY way we will win.
This is wonderful rhetoric that ignores the fact that Sanders voters sat on their hands in November after being ignored by the Party.
Somewhere in the vicinity of 2/3 of Democrats don’t want Biden to run. Some fraction of that will not vote if he continues on the ticket. What fraction are you willing to give up?
No, Sanders voters did not sit on their hands. The overwhelming majority of us voted for Secretary Clinton. The ones who didn’t weren’t Sanders supporters so much as they were Hillary-haters. Those people supported Sanders not because of anything he stood for; they supported him because they saw him as the vehicle for getting rid of her. She never had those people’s votes.
So, they’re gonna be mad and allow Trump to win? Then that’s on them. And, it will be a sad & terrifying day in America. No one’s gonna be completely satisfied here - there are all kinds of opinions about how this should go and disagreement. But I think we can all agree that Trump should be nowhere near the WH. I pray that voters don’t bite off their nose to spite their face.
And there’s a faction of Dems that do want Biden to run - love him and are invested in his candidacy. We’re doomed if we go down this path of anger and division.
You’re shooting the messenger. Just about everyone on this thread is.
The Democratic Party leadership caused this mess, and they’re the only ones who can fix it.
They have ignored the millions who have been concerned about Biden’s age since well before the debate just like they ignored Clinton’s high negatives from well before her campaign.
This is an all-the-kings-horses-and-all-the-kings-men moment created by the same clowns who gave us Trump in the first place. You can shout “To the barricades!” from now until November, and it won’t make a damn bit of difference if the DNC doesn’t pull a robust and defensible strategy out of their, um, collective brain.
I hope they do. They did reasonably well in the midterm. But this ain’t rhe midterm
Obviously Dan, it is no longer ‘the economy’ that wins elections. Its greed, hatred and ignorance. The three pillars of the House of Maga. The best economy in decades and probably over the lifetime of most. But it sure aint the economy, obviously.
Donald Trump is a convicted rapist, a con man, a convicted financial fraud and cheater, a serial liar, a want to be dictator, a thief, a traitor, an insurrectionist, a man who pays off porn stars to shut up about his sex exploits. He suffers from a severe case of Narcissistic Personality Disorder, Delusions of Grandeur, and age-related cognitive decline. He is best at stoking hatred, promoting greed and praising ignorance. He cheats on taxes. He molests women. He mocks disabilities. He degrades the military. He caters to Nazis. He is a grifter. He is a traitor. He is a cruel, hate filled fascist. He is a criminal magnet. He continues to destroy human lives. This is our future if he is elected.
Well, he hasn’t won yet. Trump is all that you say he is in your 2nd paragraph. And yet the Dems are losing. That’s why, much as I like and admire him, I think Biden should step away.
I have just cancelled my subsciption to this publication.
Your shameless efforts to push out the most successful President that we have had in 75 years in this critical moment--with NO plan in place! How reckless!, but You are rich and will feel NONE of the effects of a GOP win because of your white/rich privilege. You have NO idea what things are like "on the ground." You are playing games with people's lives. As a Black woman, you can KMA.
"America is sleepwalking toward something very, very dangerous." Thank you, Dan. I've felt like I was going insane hearing people in the media credulously repeat that the shooting had somehow changed Trump and accept the absurd notion that the party of MAGA was going to become a unifying force. Grateful to you for calling it out.
Let's take a lesson from the GOP. They're united behind a perverse criminal mob boss with no regard for the law or constitutional norms who can't say two coherent sentences in a row. And that seems to be fine with the GOP. The MSM seems to be oblivious to the threat of Trump's limited mental capabilities.
The GOP nominated a replacement option who shares the mob boss's values and styles. And they both lie constantly to convince supporters they're all for them. Really, they're both for the rich, low taxes, and gutting the federal government's regulatory scope to the detriment of America's well-being.
Meanwhile we are pulling every last hair on our collective heads because our candidate had a bad debate performance and has less energy than he did 10 years ago. Our candidate has proved he's the most competent chief executive the country has had since FDR and all Americans are better off for it. But we want to replace the "great" with the "perfect".
We also have a perfectly capable person who can step in if the President becomes incapable of governing.
Forcing Biden out with a hope and a prayer that a younger candidate, even Kamala, would be a "safer" candidate is very, very high risk.
Wake up Democrats! Our job isn't to disenfranchise our great President.
Our job is to convince Democrats and persuadable Independents that Biden is the best option for President because of his values and his extraordinary governing capabilities.
Our leadership should be onboard with this approach and getting the party faithful onboard.Now!!
With all due respect, Dan, I think you guys are leading us all off a cliff here. Biden is a known, baked in quantity. If he stays in the race and his party and the media let him, there can be an instant pivot to Trump. Anything else — dragging it out and ending up the the status quo, switching to Harris and arguing about back room deals and who the VP should be, or holding an open primary and watching what’s been taking place on social media move to prime time TV — any other scenario keeps the focus on the Dems and not to their advantage. The coverage for 3 weeks has been horrible for Biden — the worst I’ve ever seen. No wonder he’s sliding in some swing state polls. He’s still holding his own in the popular vote and no reason to think any of that polling drop is permanent. What are you and the PodPeople and the party leaders possibly thinking is a good idea about jumping on a cliff into the unknown at a moment like this?
ETA: to be clear, I am asking you to convince me. You are all so sure you are right and I’m so sure you aren’t. We are all on the same side, want the same outcome, and I don’t classify you as one as one of the people who never wanted Biden to run again and see this as your chance to remove him.
There are many, many people who want Biden to stay in, even if they are worried about him. If the party does what they are apparently poised to do, it’s going to be crucial to bring everyone along. When I am asked to defend/explain what the party is doing, I’m at a loss. Help me here!!
(I taught a seminar of political science interns last night — kids who have either spent a semester in DC or are headed there in the fall. Of the dozen or so who showed up, most were Dems. One kiddo is a Rep. All had seen the debate. All were worried sick. Only one student could see a possible update to Biden stepping down but most were oppressed and, really surprising to me, two guys were furious with the party for what they saw as disloyalty and backstabbing. They aren’t particular Biden fans but they think he can win and is being treated shabbily. Anyway, they were looking to me for explanations and reassurance and I had none. If you can persuade me, I can pass it on.)
The only place Dan is trying to lead us, and the only thing within our individual control, and the thing that remains constant regardless of who is at the top of the anti-MAGA ticket is each and every one of us DOING THE WORK to defeat MAGA.
Meanwhile, here is what you could have told your students: In the debate, Biden failed to prosecute the case against Trump. In his media interviews since then, he has not only failed to pivot every question to a prosecution of Trump, he was defensive and made it all about him. If the race is a referendum on Biden, we lose. If the race is a referendum on Trump, we just might win. So not only have we lost time, we're now in a hole the Biden campaign has dug deeper since the debate. If Biden and his campaign can turn that around, they need to do that yesterday. If not, then we need a ticket and campaign that will. Remind your political science interns that politics is the path to policy that impacts real people. It is not a place for sentimentality.
Pretty condescending and dismissive of my students. They weren’t being “sentimental.” They watched the debate. We didn’t discuss the subsequent media events much because while I thought he did a perfectly good Joe Biden kind of job, especially in the press conference where I thought he was excellent, they *were* all about Biden. That was by the interviewers’ design, though. Did we watch the same events? I heard Biden repeatedly try to pivot to Trump and Stephanopoulus (sorry about that, George, I’m sure that’s probably not how you spell it) and to some extent Holt, just kept bringing it back to Biden. If you are going to use that as evidence about whether he can turn the page, you should account for the fact that no one has wanted to let him.
(And of course Biden would need to do an enormous amount of work to do what the debate was supposed to accomplish — change the trajectory of the race. Whoever let him go out on the stage feeling the way that he did has a lot to answer for. I’m not saying it’s a cakewalk if he stays, I just think it’s the least risky option that has a shot at working.)
My students - at least the two who surprised me last night, are the farthest thing from sentimental. It’s their future we are fucking up right now. They have a pretty good grasp of the party dynamics that led to Biden being a consensus candidate in 2020 and they do not believe anyone else could have kept the pro-democracy coalition together and beaten Trump. If I understood what they were saying correctly, they think the same dynamics hold today, that there will be intraparty opposition to Harris (and at least one of them didn’t want to bet democracy on whether the country was ready to elect a women in sufficient numbers to win the EC.)
So they are grateful to Biden and they think we still need him to fill the role he filled in 2020. They are dismayed at the attacks because they think an adversarial relationship is less likely to help Biden win q. I have no doubt if they saw another path that seemed likelier to defeat Trump, they’d still be grateful to Biden, and they might be sorry that a guy they like is being treated like garbage by his party rather than celebrated as valuable elder or something (I really don’t know — Putting words in their mouths at this point.). But they wouldn’t support him for sentimental reasons if they thought he was going to lose.
(I also explained that much of what looks like ungrateful backstabbing to them is really just House members in endangered seats creating slave between themselves and an unpopular incumbent. That’s not disloyalty or nefarious behavior, it’s politics, and leadership in both houses have signaled that it’s okay with them if a member feels s/he has to cut loose. Biden himself told Lester Hold that he understands the dynamic and isn’t taking it personally.)
I saw no mention of sentimentality until you brought it up.
Ultimately all this furor was triggered by Biden. As a longtime Biden admirer I was excited to watch the debate. Within 30 seconds I was horrified to see a major presidential candidate rhetorically defenseless, confused and enfeebled. It got no better. And “whoever let him go out on that stage”? Biden’s a 60-year political professional. He’s sort’a in charge of himself.
I haven’t seen anyone treat him like garbage. He knows the phrase from the 19th century, “Politics ain’t beanbag.”
Thanks Tom.
I don't mean to insult or condescend to your students, so I'll try again.
Maybe the thing to do is to have a discussion about how concerns of "disloyalty", "backstabbing", and "being treated shabbily" relate to electoral politics and policy.
If Biden and his campaign can campaign as if our country depends on it, then good on them. If they can't or won't, we need someone with a campaign who can and will. There is nothing disloyal, backstabbing, or shabby about that.
I agree with you Carrie. I remind myself as well thatt power in politics is about building on relationships, motives, resources and PERCEPTIONS. (Power is not a physcial object).
This is what President Biden is losing--the perceptions game. And it could cost us a winnable election because he cannot build the energy for a victory we desperately need.
The fact is, whether it's Biden or someone new, either ticket MIGHT lose and either ticket CAN win. No matter who is on the ticket, it comes down to US doing the work. And the work includes not running around like Chicken Little screaming that we've already lost — a SUREFIRE way to depress turnout in the people who hear your message.
No one wants to be called Blue MAGA, but it's time to fall in line and do the fucking work.
But the inherent criticism in the polls has been there since Biden announced. What pushed it past the tipping point was the debate. I don’t see the talk weakening Joe’s chances. I see it as Joe’s newly revealed feebleness (when without prepared remarks) sparking strong alarm against a guy with looney-bin energy that masquerades as strength.
I have been a Biden admirer for decades, and think he’s been an excellent president. But the debate and the unscripted events, since then, have ranked from horrifying and abysmal to, at best, weak and feeble. To my mind, though I realize not all will agree.
I do not want to see Biden put through this. And, I think he would lose.
Today the polls show Trump ahead by 2 points, a statistical tie, so why the screeching mob demanding Biden drop out? It's the media and the handwringing politicians, NOT the voters.
Deja 2016 vu all over again
Clinton had high negatives going into the campaign. But the Party had anointed her as Obama’s successor. Biden sat it out for that very reason. Sanders got in and for all intents and purposes was ignored. The night before the election, Sanders was not on the platform with Clinton. His followers sat on their hands the next day.
History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes. People have been concerned about Biden’s age since 2020. Biden called himself a transition president at the time. He apparently saw that as a slick political move.
His negatives now make Clinton’s look minor. Many of us don’t trust him. Many of us believe that for whatever reason the people in position to know about his cognitive health lied to us. A week ago the Party was trying to tell us to get over ourselves and abide by the Party’s choice. Brilliant strategy, that. Treat us like MAGA Republicans. They demonstrated just how well they know us and what they think of us.
Biden sat it out because his son died.
The infinitesimal attention span of the general public often hurts defenders of democracy - e.g., the apparent widespread memory loss about just how awful TFG's years in office were. But I think here this ability to forget last week will work for us. It seems to me that excitement and relief will quickly snowball into momentum and unity behind a new ticket.
Can you think for a minute what message switching out a candidate sends to the public? “Oops! We screwed up! We told you this guy was the right person to lead the country but scratch that. He performed abysmally in a debate and there is a chance that he’s cognitively impaired and he really doesn’t speak very well and we’re afraid we’re going to lose. So, now we’re tell you that this new person who you sort of know is the one. Except some of us don’t like her. We want a guy you have never heard of from Pennsylvania, we think he’s the one. Unless it’s the guy from California. It’s one of these guys for sure.”
It’s a bad message even if there is a seamless switch over to Harris (and watching the really awful chaos and the leaking about the chaos in the leadership right now, I have zero confidence in that.
The Dems are running against a party whose nominee never admits he is wrong about anything. Dems will be admitting they were wrong about the most important thing. I know they can try to spin it differently but message control is not their thing these days.
We see this from the perspective of people are are agonizing one this and who want closure and want to move past this. That’s what it seems to you that an excitement and relief over the switch will produce a positive result.
A whole lot of Americans are going to want to know why the party is dumping their president because he’s old and why if that is suddenly disqualifying now, they should believe anything else the party tells them.
I was just stunned in my class last night by the anger of the two male students at what they see is a lack of gratitude for and betrayal of a president who has done a good job and hasn’t convinced them that he can’t continue to so.
We are in such uncharted territory with so many unknowns.
Please remember though that what you describe was not some whimsical tour that Dem leadership decided would be a fun outing. It’s a deadly serious result of ignoring polls for a year, the candidate and campaign hiding Biden’s declining powers, and the result of a public face-plant in front of 50 million viewers.
I don’t buy the conspiracy. There are multiple reasons that his poll numbers could be low. If the campaign or the admin or the family thought he was declining in a significant way that required “hiding,” they wouldn’t have pushed for this totally optional debate. They didn’t just think he was going to hold his own, they thought he would win in definitive enough terms that it would settle the age issue once and for all and change the trajectory of the race.
I just don’t see the support for a conspiracy that could never have been expected to end well when there is a simpler explanation.
I suggest you and your students spend some time with experienced canvassers to learn what voters care about and how to talk with them.
I also suggest asking your angry students why they think gratitude is incompatible with pragmatism, and why see defeating MAGA as a betrayal.
“Oops! We screwed up! We told you this guy was the right person to lead the country but scratch that. He performed abysmally in a debate and there is a chance that he’s cognitive impaired and he really doesn’t speak very well and we’re afraid we’re going to lose. So, now we’re tell you that this new person who you sort of know is the one."
Can we parse that more than hyperbole please?
Admitting fault or mistakes is not a sign of weakness. It would be an honest admission of today's sentiment.
Fear is a strong driver. We feel it daily.
We have plenty of time to win the election, save Democracy, change the trajectory of the world and still get home in time for Thanksgiving.
Honesty is the very best way to start getting there.
I am saying that it is possible that the average nonpartisan voter is not going to see it in the way you do, and I’m offering a possible interpretation that someone might plausibly put on the events you’d like to see unfold. Refreshing honestly to you can look like “if you didn’t screw it up you wouldn’t need to be honest now.”
If you are going to ask people to trust you on a giant unknown risk to their lives and security, it seems to me that it would be smart to try to understand how they think and what they would need to see in order to trust.
The fact that everyone who is certain about the best course of action for the Dems right now is also certain that everyone (or at least most everyone) is going to view the world through the exact same lens they do gives me hives.
Doesn’t the fact that you and I, people on the same team trying to reach the same goal, disagree dramatically on this most fundamental question of how a late term Biden replacement will be perceived, give you any doubt at all that you might be wrong about how a majority of people will perceive this?
My training is to understand politics independently of what my own preferences are so I can understand how it works, not just how I’d like it to work.
And my training tells me that anyone who feels pretty sure they know how a late term nomination shift is going to be perceived, and what is likely to follow, should be a little less certain. We just have no evidence to base those certainties on.
Being certain that you know how things will turn out can give you the sense that an inherently risky course of action is less risky than it really is. You are assuming away the riskiness and imposing your certainties.
I cannot do that. I see multiple risks and while there are certainly more than I like attached to sticking with Biden, we also have quite a bit of empirical knowledge that can help us modify those risks somewhat.
We are really in unknown territory with some of the switching alternatives. I don’t see many political scientists or historians — people who are trained to be relatively clear-eyed about human nature and for whom wishful thinking is a professional hazard — recommending that Biden get out of the race. Most of the ones I follow think that the very act of changing course and trying to sell it to the public is so costly to a party that you only do it is you are certain that the original candidate can’t win. And they look at the evidence and, so far anyway, that’s not what it says.
I think that the Dem leadership is absolutely trying to understand how people are thinking about this and how to keep their trust. If I didn’t think that, I wouldn’t be a Democrat.
I agree this is not an ideal situation. But this stems from the candidate snd his campaign hiding the truth about his decline. I am a Biden admirer, and I was shocked and horrified at the debate. And angry at what I saw as deception. Since then, I see well-meaning people honestly scrambling for an answer. I don’t demand that people who want Biden to stay in the race “prove” he can find the energy and vigor to win. You can’t prove something like that. Nor can you prove that an alternate course will be better. We all just need to unite when the decision is made.
"Doesn’t the fact that you and I, people on the same team trying to reach the same goal, disagree dramatically on this most fundamental question of how a late term Biden replacement will be perceived, give you any doubt at all that you might be wrong about how a majority of people will perceive this?"
Nope. None whatsoever.
You have mentioned your training and involvement with political science and interns three times now I believe. It's ok, you don't have to shove credentials in our faces, we're all friends here.
What I'm hearing is risk aversion. Multiple times you have calculated risk and found that a candidate change is more hazardous to outcome than no change.
I fundamentally disagree. I perceive a very different calculus *IF*, and I mean IF, the following is observed:
A Democrat platform that represents what we actually want, not what Boomers want:
A Democrat platform that Gets The Money Out.
Lots and lots of good people can represent that platform.
In short, here is my preferred calculus:
Platform > Ticket
Right now the platform is More Biden For The Masses, and the masses are pissed about it. No amount of More Biden is going to fix that.
Your points about personal loyalty to President Biden and indecisiveness among Democrats are well taken. But personal affinity toward any individual elected official is secondary to the National Interest. To say that someone should remain in the highest office in the land simply because you believe they are being treated unfairly is irrational.
And, unfortunately, this is what some Democrats are currently doing. They are telling pollsters and each other they think that Vice President Kamala Harris is more electable and would do a better job of approaching certain issues like Israel/Palestine, for example, but that Joe Biden is a “victim,” so we have to support him no matter what.
This mentality is a recipe for disaster. No one knows for sure what will happen regardless of who the Democratic nominee for President is, but it is more than time to shake up the race.
Hence, President Joe Biden needs to do the honorable thing by suspending his re-election campaign and endorsing Vice President Harris. There is way too much to lose, at this moment, to let pride and ego determine whether he continues on with his lost cause of a campaign to be re-elected as President.
Kol Tuv
David Hurwitz
Chicago, IL
Agree! And how reasonable is it for Ds to push Biden out because he is “not competent” to run but allow him to continue running the country until Jan 2025? No matter how “kindly” Biden is pushed aside….I already feel dirty.
The problem is we don't know how a "new ticket" (whoever that may be) will impact the Biden base and coalition that actually won in 2020. Why can't we have excitement and enthusiasm now for the great presidency and ongoing work of the Biden administration??
Yes, but the bigger problem is that we have a current ticket that is on a track to lose.
I am a Biden admirer since the early 90s. I do have enthusiasm and admiration for his very great presidency. But the Joe Biden I have seen since the debate can’t prosecute an election against his lunatic opponent.
“On track to lose” is not meaningful right now. The elections 3+ months away. Polls are a snapshot of right now, when Biden has had the worst the weeks of press coverage on the planet and Trump has had the luckiest breaks you could possibly imagine.
Biden is behind. Not losing. You don’t lose until there is an election. I think people get very confused about what polls are and what they can tell us.
Biden obviously needs to do something to change the trajectory of the race. He’s got a crackerjack team but it’s hard to do that when you are the object of constant incoming fire from all sides. It freezes the campaign in a defensive posture.
But he doesn’t have to change it all that much and he won’t be behind any more. If the media would realize it’s not their job to chose the president, or to push one lot of office, but just to give us the facts for us to do the choosing, and if they get back to covering a rave between two people, the polls will change anyway. The relentless coverage, along with the media’s narrative that Biden has long been incapacitated but that his people conspired to hide it from a vigilant press corps, is damaging to the Biden campaign right now. There is no evidence that Biden has any long term hidden decline or that anyone conspired to hide it. Pretty weird way to hide it when you send your guy out on an optional, early debate of your own choosing. They didn’t think what happened would happen. They obviously thought. He would win the debate.
But the media’s conviction that they have been dissed and duped and must now double down is producing a spate of articles with vague intimations of Biden being confused when he travels and having some hours of the day when he’s sharpest and when they prefer to schedule his speaking events (so do I, btw. Always have and I schedule my classes and the talks accordingly. Also have hours when I am at my best for writing and I guard them with my life. Doesn’t make me demented but it sure boosts my productivity.)
The media determination to see something nefarious in everything they report is unprofessional and damaging and not what freedom of the press is about.
It’s in turn worrying Biden’s voters and concerning the country and pushing down his poll numbers. The party leaders, who were initially supportive of Biden or silent, are now in full blown panic.
This situation is driving itself to a conclusion I hate to see because I suspect (don’t know) that it makes it really hard to beat Trump.
The one thing we need to do is keep the public attention fixed on remembering who Donald Trump is and realizing how much worse he is than he was 4 years ago (when he was fomenting an insurrection.). He wants to job to keep himself out prison. And unlike last time, this term he will be surrounded by people who will use his narcissism, which makes
him very easy to manipulate, to force on us an illiberal Christian nationalist agenda that runs counter to the Constitution in every respect.
We should follow whatever course allows us to start saying that everyday in every way. That’s how you beat Trump. Not by spending months exposing the Dem Party’s internal divisions and anxieties for all the world to see. There is time to do that once we have secured democracy.
100% agree.
Please show me where the data is that Biden is on track to lose. According to 538, Biden is still (even after all the negative coverage of Biden for weeks and the positive coverage on Trump, espec this week) slightly ahead in electoral college.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-biden-polls
A good question. But.... we don't have it, and we don't seem to be on a path to it. I think there is so much sadness and exhaustion among Dems right now that any reasonable ticket will lead to an outpouring of excitement. I'm not a total Polyanna; I have no illusions that it would be my personal dream ticket. But it's likely to be a much stronger one.
Reacting from fear and exhaustion is exactly the problem. That’s why I keep trying to do some form of risk analysis. We are basing some pretty consequential decisions on “feelings” and “beliefs” and “guesses”. Even the polls we have don’t tell us about the future. They are snapshots of now, three weeks into feral media coverage and catastrophic thinking by party members (while the Rep candidates gets the luckiest breaks of anyone I’ve ever seen!)
None of this is how we should be making a decision like this.
When I say “convince me” I mean I need something better than the gut feelings of torture people. Because tortured people are notoriously famous for selling out everything in order to make the pain or the torture stop. I’m trying to think a little longer term than that.
Yes. But tell me when anyone had “proof” of future events.
As much as I want Dems to win this election, I am neither fearful nor exhausted. I saw the debate, and as a longtime Biden supporter, I was horrified. I knew at that moment he couldn’t win.
And the next day, a lot of experienced, intelligent, professional politicians agreed. Then more, and more as Biden made additional unscripted appearances.
None of this is satisfying to me. I think he has been a more consequential president than any in the last 50 years.
The only proof we’ll have of the risks his candidacy carries is a loss in November.
Yes, polls are imperfect. Is there any other mechanism in the world that measures how people are thinking and feeling today, so as to try to project what trend lines may exist? It seems to me that the last two years of polls that showed a steadily growing unease with Biden’s age were pretty spot-on.
Here's my nightmare scenario today:
Biden slow-walks any change to the convention. Then we're all told it's too late to change anything, don't even think about it, change itself is now divisive.
And then he loses.
Sleep tight. ;-O)
Hey, Christine?
This has been haunting me, IDK why. You started with credentials and now stand "ready to be convinced"? I'm confused.
I'm not trying to be antagonistic, but you have specifically mentioned your students in political science, your interns in political science, your writing(s) and your pre-prepared "talks".
But my question was, if you teach political science, what do you teach your students?
And, what age group are your students? What age group are you accustomed to addressing when you mention your students & interns?
I don’t really think of telling people where I am coming from as offering credentials. One of the things I do tell my students is that they should always consider the source of the information they are consuming — it will help them know how to evaluate it. That’s the context in which I am offering the info, in the same way as some people here say they have been involved in grass roots activism and their perspective is based on talking to people on the ground, or a lawyer might offer a legal perspective. I see that it bothers you and I’m sorry that you are taking it as a reflection on you or the conversation. I’m basically saying, I am deeply engaged in this topic, and I come at it from an evidence based, theoretically informed social science perspective. I don’t think that makes what I say to be the last word on anything, but I do think it makes it a valuable contribution
I can’t find the line you are referring to where you said I was open to persuasion or whatever it is, but if I didn’t make it clear, I have no idea what the best course of action is here. And yes, if you were the one who called me “risk averse,” then at least when it comes to saving democracy, I am. I do want the least risky path. I realize you disagree, but from what I know, open conventions are almost certain to end in a party loss. There are lots of reasons for that, and I still say “almost certain.” I can’t swear that some crazy series of events might bring a shattered Democratic coalition back together and also appeal to independent voters, but I can’t imagine it and more to the point, none of the people who advocate that path have been able to tell me what it looks like either.
I teach college level political science and have done for nearly 40 yrs. Mostly American politics but some other stuff too. The basic skill I work on teaching is critical, analytic thinking about American politics. In the meeting I mentioned in the comment that i think you are referring to, students asked me to hold a currents events session on everything that had been happening in the last month. They were especially focused on the presidential immunity case and since they had barely noticed the one striking down the Chevron doctrine, we talked about that too. That part of the session was mostly me talking, but when we got to the election they had a lot to say. Mostly Dems in that class. One Rep. I need to circle back to him and get his take. He was pretty quiet in class, maybe just trying to be tactful, I don’t know.
All of those students who showed up are either former DC interns I have supervised or future interns going to DC next month. I direct the program for my department and I commute once a week and teach them in DC which is great fun for me as they are working on the Hill, in think tanks, at the WH, in various advocacy groups — all over really. Watching them become professionals and apply what they are learning to their actual political work is a real kick for me
Hope I’ve told you enough about this for it to stop bothering you. It’s not mysterious, it’s just my job and one I feel very lucky to have.
What then do you teach your students?
This feels like lots of vibes without much evidence.
Get over it. It win’t happen.
We’re not Republican sheep.
Thank you for this reality check. Much as I love the Crooked crew, I'm torn on the question of Biden stepping down whereas they appear to be all in.
It would appease the hysterical Dems who've been calling for his head since the debate (and before), but those people were always going to vote for the Democrat--Joe or no. The people who will decide this election don't know what a Gavin Newsom is. They're going to roll out of bed on the 5th and decide whether it's worth their time to bother voting. Either way, our work as the actively engaged remains the same.
The data just isn't there. I'd feel differently if Kamala were five points up. But she and Joe are effectively tied. And if you're TFG, why would you even agree to debate her? You've already had a "perfect debate" and wouldn't want to give her the opportunity.
The next few weeks are going to be interesting...
Here’s a great response you could use with your students (borrowed from a post from Dan Pfeiffer’s Substack comments):
Adonai Pierre
18 mins ago
We will win this! I am sharing my battle-tested voter pitch with you all:
Elections are not beauty pageant contests. The media culture in the US has transformed politics into a show business or entertainment industry. However, in real life, as we learned painfully from Mitch McConnell, "Elections Have Consequences."
In fact, for many people, it can be a matter of life or death:
-Whether you can get an abortion procedure if your life is in danger,
-Whether your healthcare will be stripped away while you are dealing with a major illness,
-Whether you can feel safe attending an event without the fear of being shot with an AR-15,
-Whether a family can seek due process for asylum because their life is at risk in their home country.
All these issues are determined by decisions made by elected politicians, whether to take action or ignore them.
So, no, an election is not where you pick the best, strongest-looking man to entertain you. The person you elect can have the power of life or death over you on various issues.
Thus, based on their records, who do you trust to make the right decision for your life in the Oval Office when these crucial issues arise?
Donald Trump, the man who bankrupted so many businesses, was found liable for fraud multiple times, liable for sexual assault, and convicted felon?
Or Joe Biden.
Thank you Christine. There are many, many, many of us who continue to support President Biden. And VP Harris.
Thanks, as always, for a frank assessment. I will offer this. Many people want to do the work. As an organizer, I've seen an uptick in the last two weeks of people wanting to do something. I'm organizing a door knocking crew to hold the MN senate AND turn out the vote. People came up to me last night and said, "We are in. What should I do next?" At this point, this is about values. What future do you want for you and your family and what candidate is most likely to help us move in that direction? I don't care which Dem runs for President - they will be more aligned with the future I want for my grandchildren, community and state than any MAGA republican.
I love how u just casually say Trump is “heavily favored” to win. On 538 alone Biden has been favored the last week, with his electoral votes increasing by 6. So where is all this incontrovertible proof u all take for granted w one sentence in this piece? Highly debatable to say the least. We know u want him to drop out but be real w ur readers. Stop presenting this as tho it’s a fait accompli where Biden is concerned. It’s not. It’s July.
Spot on! Where is the proof?
The only proof of the outcome of an election is the result. Until then, everybody is just following the path their instinct, experience and intelligence dictate. Let’s just all assume we all have that good intention.
538’s model is an anomaly. It’s own polling averages disagree with it. Nate Silver, the creator of the original model, criticizes it harshly. His model, now independent of 538 , has a heavy chance of Biden losing. There is no proof possible for a future event.
Everyone is trying to win. At this point, there is not an agreed-upon path. But there will be. Biden or otherwise.
Well, I saw many people quoting 538 a couple weeks ago when Biden was trailing to bolster their case that Biden must drop out - so it seems only fair to factor it in now. Regardless, he has also gained in several other polls and the ones he trails in are close. But it’s also a self fulfilling prophecy - the nonstop Biden bashing in the media bc of the open question among Dems has absolutely damaged him in the polls - how could it not? Additionally, it is July. Polls will tighten. The last thing we need right now is the absolute chaos of the totally unknown legal disasters that await should we try to change the ticket this late - and the possibility of another election decided by Clarence Thomas.
Polls will tighten? Why? Because they always do? You seem to forget that every election has a loser for whom the polls might not have tightened.
What legal disasters? The threat of the Heritage Foundation suing to make Joe Biden run for president? If he steps out, he will do so voluntarily. But you think a court will order him to run or order the DNC to nominate him?
That is scare talk from the GOP. Biden isn’t the nominee until the DNC offers him the nomination and he accepts. Political parties are free to create or modify their own rules as to the nomination.
What do you suppose would happen if a health or family issue made a nominee drop out at this stage? That somehow an opposing political party could force the DNC to go forward with an unwilling or unable candidate? That makes no sense.
The party leadership has a lot of things to decide should Joe drop out. All of them have to do with winning an election, whomever the candidate.
Ur truly delusional if u think that GOP lawyers won’t do everything they can to bury us in lawsuits to keep a new Dem ticket (who didn’t win a primary) off the ballot in any state they have influence over. They’re already trying to do it w Biden in OH. Do u know how many election lawsuits they’ve already filed? Dozens. Not to mention the idea of forfeiting the massive power of incumbency for an unknown outcome. We have no clue how any other ticket would actually poll or perform in a general. The idea that any other ticket would some how be a better option is simply false. It’s a massive risk. And seeing what a disastrous public disgrace Dem leaders have caused the party with this constant leaking to the media/publishing statements in the press - it’s beyond wishful thinking to think this same disorganized, undisciplined party that has spent the last 3 weeks damaging their own incumbent could pull off selecting, vetting, funding and getting a new Dem ticket on the ballot in all 50 states.
THIS is why Biden (mostly) failed so badly in that debate. Kamala Harris would have demolished Trump because all it took was some coherent jabs to make the fat bastard look like the mentally ill tyrant that he is. It was so easy and Joe - God bless him, decent man and truly great president with a long record of accomplishments - was not up for that job and isn't getting better.
It sucks and it's a tragedy. But it doesn't have to be a lasting one if Biden steps aside.
Last week we witnessed the near assassination of Donald Trump, probably by another disturbed young male with a military style assault rifle. Ever dince the "debate" we have been witnessing the slow drip political assassination of Joe Biden based on innuendo. This is definitely a Presidential race for the historians to pick at for a long time. Winning against Trump/Vance/MAGA will be very, very difficult. But we MUST WIN!
Running against that fascist, GOP witches brew plus the leadership of the Democratic party, plus big donors, plus the liberal pundits in the MSM might be impossible, even for the most substantive President we've had since FDR.
I hope our leadership and the pundits (and of course, with George Clooney's approval) have the magic solution ready to rollout. If they're relying on the Convention to sort this out, I fear we're headed for a replay of the 1968 debacle.
I checked with a friend who is a high level retired military leader, who supports Biden, to get his take on how to win this war. His immediate response...the Democratic party, local and leadership, need to double down in support of the President. Circle the wagons. If the President can't carry on into the next term develop a transition plan. Undermining the President through the media is the worst strategy to follow. And time is running out.
No one has a magic solution. Not sure I accept a retired military official of any level as an election expert.
We are all trying to win. No one is trying to dis’ Joe, disenfranchise voters, or turn the party into a plutocracy. What we all
want is a defeated Trump.
When we have a nominee, the important thing is to unite, work, volunteer, campaign, donate if able, call, text, door-knock, and vote. That’s how we will win, whether the nominee is Biden or not.
In the meantime, doubting each other’s motives today won’t help get us where we want to be.
Totally agree with this.
Here, Here. Agreed.
I’ve changed and deleted my last comment bc i think the pressure on Biden to drop out is another ploy to bring chaos. Bottom line : it’s too late to change the nomination without enormous legal obstacles from the GOP & SCOTUS re: the ballot changes. They welcome this chaos.
Our best plan is to circle the wagons. Get it done. The MAGA agenda is hugely unpopular. They want us to give up in apathy.
Heather Cox Richardson, 7/18/24: "Paul Manafort walking onto the floor of the Republican National Convention yesterday illustrated that the Republican Party under Trump has become thoroughly corrupted into an authoritarian party aligned with foreign dictators." I think that succinctly sums it up and I haven't seen anyone else talk about this. I saw some mentions of Manafort, but not why it matters that he was there. I also haven't seen any long essays on women voters; women are mentioned as an afterthought. Maybe that's because women tend to be de-emphasized and marginalized. Abortion is still kryptonite for Trump and it's women voters who've been behind the state abortion rights ballot initiatives and there are about 11 more initiatives on the ballot in November. There are more women registered to vote then men. Mary Trump correctly stated that Trump-Vance is the most anti-women ticket ever. And, it's all out in the open, nothing subtle here. Trump was found to have raped E. Jean Carroll and has said lots and lots of misogynistic things about women, adding in racist comments for women of color and for Elizabeth Warren (Pocahontas). It's hard to believe, but Vance is even worse in public. Vance is completely against abortion with no exceptions for rape and incest, because a women who gets pregnant because of rape or incest is simply being inconvenienced. He believes that women should stay in abusive marriages and Project 2025 will cement that by eliminating no-fault divorce. I'm apparently one of his single, crazy cat ladies who've been ruining the country (I really need a T-shirt for this). I'm not sure if he hates me because I'm single, or crazy (am I crazy because I oppose everything that comes out of his mouth) or because I have a cat. But I am sure that Trump and Vance hate me for existing. Project 2025 will also eliminate contraception, including condoms (please tell the men in your lives). The list goes on and on. If you want another effective message for this campaign, how about putting women's rights front and center and not only concerning abortion (although that is critical). Since everyone loves polls how about putting some emphasis on the polls showing how much women don't like Trump, and not just "suburban women". And, I'd love to some new polls including Vance's anti-women comments. How about discussing all the various ways that Trump-Vance want to go back to the 1800s when women were property. Never underestimate women, especially women of color.
Hey there. I caught a video from AOC on my feed and she was great. She brought up the point that changing Biden could go into legal territory that leads us to the Supreme Court. She said she has been in these behind the scene meetings. Her point was no one offered a plan after President Biden steps down that would not lead to further chaos. She brought up the money received by Biden cannot be transferred, that not everyone wants Kamala, that the names mentioned don’t necessarily want to be President. Did you see her post? What are your thoughts?
If President Biden were to step down, he should also resign the presidency. That’d pretty much ensure that the Democratic nominee would be Harris, and the party could spend its very limited time picking her running mate.
He could give a speech extolling all the reasons he picked her to step in if he were to die in office, and then talk about deciding he wants to see while he’s still here how well she will do as president.
I don’t think he should step down at all, but if he does, it should be from the presidency as well as the race.
Can’t. I thought maybe this would work too
until someone pointed out that the Senate R’s would likely block confirmation of Harris’s pick for VP since it would leave the speaker of the house next in the line of succession.
All true. You can bet there will be legal challanges and attempts to keep the “ticket” off the ballot. Trump, MAGA (and Putin) will do all they can to disrupt the process. We are entering uncharted waters. Risky!
Recall in 2020 there was doubt Biden could win. Like many I believed the majority of voters recognized the threat to democracy. And We won! Then in 2022 polls and pundits predicted a red wave. Again we won. The threat to democracy has not subsided. The threat is higher! Voters know this. We who pay such close attention underestimate the average voter. We can win with Biden. Trump has not gained voters since 2020. Proof of this is his attempt to soften his positions to appeal to swing voters. It’s not working. He is a beatable candidate. My concern is Ds changing horses midstream so late in the race. An on-the-fly startup campaign will leave many cracks in the door for the opposition to enter and attack. This will take the candidate off message and put him/her in defense mode. When you’re defending you’re losing. I will support the D nominee no matter who it is but like most of you I’m a die hard informed voter.
Always talking about Biden stepping aside, but you idiots have NO plan or solution. And, you're arrogant enough to think that you can disenfranchise 14 million voters as though we can't think for ourselves..
We have a chance to destroy the GOP and folks like you are helping to destroy the Dems. SMH
I think you are assuming that folks voted for Biden. Respectfully, i know many people who actually voted for "the Democrat," and against Trump. And we now have new information about Biden's abilities that wasn't available six months ago. It seems a wishful reconstruction of the primaries to refer to Dem voters as being disenfranchized today by a change in our nominee.
The important thing is to not get split over this issue. I like and admire Biden strongly. But I realize he’s too old for this (to my mind). I can’t help but believe that all of us share some sliver of doubt about his ability to engage in a vigorous and wearing election.
No one is deliberately setting out to disenfranchise a single voter. Many believe, though, that events dictate a different candidate (as the point is to win). That will require a different process because of time. But no one has the goal of disenfranchisement.
What would happen if Biden had a health problem, or otherwise decided not to run? Would it be “you idiots have no plan”? Of course not. If Joe steps back, it will be his decision. People may have offered him advice or given him gloomy predictions, but he won’t be bullied into it. Not sure you could bully someone like him.
But at the end of the day, whether it’s Biden or someone else, we all have to come together and vote, persuade, work, donate if able, and win.
Very important Tom. We need to remember that parties choose candidates. That is what we are doing. Let's have this conversation and then--work together. We agree on a lot more than we disagree about right now.
Now we’re idiots? Stop name calling.
Can't wait to see the debate between Kamala, a former sex crimes prosecutor and Trump, a convicted felon and sex crime committer
Here’s my two cents in reading all these comments: none of us has much control over whether Biden steps down or stays - the only thing we have control over is how we chose to react and pivot once a final decision is made. The threat that Trump and MAGA pose is so extreme that we must - I underscore- we must get 100% behind our candidate. We will die on our sword if we succumb to infighting and chaos. There will be disappointment and perhaps anger. Set it aside for the greater good and let’s all unify against the threat we are facing. That’s the ONLY way we will win.
This is wonderful rhetoric that ignores the fact that Sanders voters sat on their hands in November after being ignored by the Party.
Somewhere in the vicinity of 2/3 of Democrats don’t want Biden to run. Some fraction of that will not vote if he continues on the ticket. What fraction are you willing to give up?
No, Sanders voters did not sit on their hands. The overwhelming majority of us voted for Secretary Clinton. The ones who didn’t weren’t Sanders supporters so much as they were Hillary-haters. Those people supported Sanders not because of anything he stood for; they supported him because they saw him as the vehicle for getting rid of her. She never had those people’s votes.
So, they’re gonna be mad and allow Trump to win? Then that’s on them. And, it will be a sad & terrifying day in America. No one’s gonna be completely satisfied here - there are all kinds of opinions about how this should go and disagreement. But I think we can all agree that Trump should be nowhere near the WH. I pray that voters don’t bite off their nose to spite their face.
And there’s a faction of Dems that do want Biden to run - love him and are invested in his candidacy. We’re doomed if we go down this path of anger and division.
You’re shooting the messenger. Just about everyone on this thread is.
The Democratic Party leadership caused this mess, and they’re the only ones who can fix it.
They have ignored the millions who have been concerned about Biden’s age since well before the debate just like they ignored Clinton’s high negatives from well before her campaign.
This is an all-the-kings-horses-and-all-the-kings-men moment created by the same clowns who gave us Trump in the first place. You can shout “To the barricades!” from now until November, and it won’t make a damn bit of difference if the DNC doesn’t pull a robust and defensible strategy out of their, um, collective brain.
I hope they do. They did reasonably well in the midterm. But this ain’t rhe midterm
Too damn right!
Obviously Dan, it is no longer ‘the economy’ that wins elections. Its greed, hatred and ignorance. The three pillars of the House of Maga. The best economy in decades and probably over the lifetime of most. But it sure aint the economy, obviously.
Donald Trump is a convicted rapist, a con man, a convicted financial fraud and cheater, a serial liar, a want to be dictator, a thief, a traitor, an insurrectionist, a man who pays off porn stars to shut up about his sex exploits. He suffers from a severe case of Narcissistic Personality Disorder, Delusions of Grandeur, and age-related cognitive decline. He is best at stoking hatred, promoting greed and praising ignorance. He cheats on taxes. He molests women. He mocks disabilities. He degrades the military. He caters to Nazis. He is a grifter. He is a traitor. He is a cruel, hate filled fascist. He is a criminal magnet. He continues to destroy human lives. This is our future if he is elected.
Well, he hasn’t won yet. Trump is all that you say he is in your 2nd paragraph. And yet the Dems are losing. That’s why, much as I like and admire him, I think Biden should step away.
Yep, once enough dems call him a loser, we all lose.
I have just cancelled my subsciption to this publication.
Your shameless efforts to push out the most successful President that we have had in 75 years in this critical moment--with NO plan in place! How reckless!, but You are rich and will feel NONE of the effects of a GOP win because of your white/rich privilege. You have NO idea what things are like "on the ground." You are playing games with people's lives. As a Black woman, you can KMA.
It is not a question of "can T be beaten." The question is, can we beat him with B? I say the answer is no, period.
Yes--this seesm to me to be the only way forward.
"America is sleepwalking toward something very, very dangerous." Thank you, Dan. I've felt like I was going insane hearing people in the media credulously repeat that the shooting had somehow changed Trump and accept the absurd notion that the party of MAGA was going to become a unifying force. Grateful to you for calling it out.
Of course it didn’t change Trump, but it gave him an opportunity to change his rhetoric.
He chose Vance to signal to the right that he wasn’t about to change. Now Trump can go after the middle.
Let's take a lesson from the GOP. They're united behind a perverse criminal mob boss with no regard for the law or constitutional norms who can't say two coherent sentences in a row. And that seems to be fine with the GOP. The MSM seems to be oblivious to the threat of Trump's limited mental capabilities.
The GOP nominated a replacement option who shares the mob boss's values and styles. And they both lie constantly to convince supporters they're all for them. Really, they're both for the rich, low taxes, and gutting the federal government's regulatory scope to the detriment of America's well-being.
Meanwhile we are pulling every last hair on our collective heads because our candidate had a bad debate performance and has less energy than he did 10 years ago. Our candidate has proved he's the most competent chief executive the country has had since FDR and all Americans are better off for it. But we want to replace the "great" with the "perfect".
We also have a perfectly capable person who can step in if the President becomes incapable of governing.
Forcing Biden out with a hope and a prayer that a younger candidate, even Kamala, would be a "safer" candidate is very, very high risk.
Wake up Democrats! Our job isn't to disenfranchise our great President.
Our job is to convince Democrats and persuadable Independents that Biden is the best option for President because of his values and his extraordinary governing capabilities.
Our leadership should be onboard with this approach and getting the party faithful onboard.Now!!
Liked the thought that Trump can lose the toxic fastball which bedazzled the fearful and destroyed a freestanding political party.