Donald Trump Can (and Must) Be Defeated
His bizarre, boring convention speech is a reminder that Trump is a terrible candidate
Unlike my party, there was no question who would be the Republican nominee. It’s not a surprise, but it’s still shocking.
Tonight, one of America’s two political parties nominated a convicted felon who has been found liable for rape and tried to violently overthrow the government only a few years ago.
Donald Trump is not an ordinary politician. He doesn’t believe in democracy. He promised to become a dictator on day one. If he wins, Trump already pledged to use the power of the state to exact revenge on his political opponents. Just last week, he suggested bringing Representative Liz Cheney before a military tribunal for the crime of opposing him.
Trump stood up on that dais last night and gave what, for Trump, was a very boring speech. He sanded off the roughest edges of his extremism for the TV cameras. He mentioned Biden by name only once. He offered wandering platitudes and bromides. It’s as if the goal is to be so uninteresting he escapes notice. Many changed the channel. Others fell asleep on the couch. Most were just confused.
Most of the press covered it as though he were a typical politician and not a threat to democracy. I spent the last week watching TikTokers and celebrities gush over the post-shooting photo of Trump with his hand raised and blood on his face. America is sleepwalking toward something very, very dangerous.
Normalizing the Abnormal
This is purposeful. From the outset, the goal of the Republican Convention was to humanize Trump and normalize MAGA extremism. They bolstered MAGA freaks like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Charlie Kirk on the first day of the convention, which typically has the lowest viewership. They also gave muted speeches designed to avoid the outrage on which they have built their brand. Propagating the Big Lie about the 2020 election is the price of admission in Trump’s GOP. If you dare accept the obvious and provable reality that Trump lost fair and square, you will be exiled like Mitt Romney and Adam Kinzinger. Yet, with dozens of speakers over four nights, there was nary a mention of the 2020 election. Trump’s campaign honchos know that talking about the Big Lie is damaging with swing voters. It’s like wearing a t-shirt that says “Right Wing Kook.”
It wasn’t all normal. A former Trump aide came directly from prison to address the convention to raucous applause. Paul Manafort, another Trump aide who went to prison, was seen making the rounds on the convention floor. Hulk Hogan addressed the convention.
The goal was crystal clear: don’t remind voters of the chaos and incompetence that caused them to reject Trump four years prior.
It’s Trump’s Party Now
I was at the 2016 Republican Convention in Cleveland. It was an awkward affair. Most of the party and the delegates didn’t love or even like Trump. The event felt like a wedding where no one thinks the couple should get married. That vibe persisted throughout the Trump years. Most of Congress, lobbyists, and political operatives laughed at Trump behind his back. Sure, they would prefer an incompetent, dim narcissist with the impulse control of a toddler who missed his nap over a Democrat, but many were just trying to endure the Trump years until the return of the “normal” Republican Party.
It’s not coming back.
This is now a party crafted in Trump’s image. He is their leader. There is no dissent or doubt. They believe what he believes — even if it runs counter to long-held party orthodoxy.
No matter what happens in this election, the transformation of the Republican Party into a bastion of MAGA extremism will have long-term consequences for the country. A two-party system cannot function when one party goes off the deep end.
The GOP Prepares for Kamala
Despite their hatred of the “Crooked Media” (and Crooked Media), the Republicans follow the news. They know what is happening on our side. They built their entire campaign around beating Joe Biden — using concerns about his age as a proxy to frame the race as strong vs. weak. Thanks to Biden’s debate performance, that strategy worked well. As we stand today, Trump is a heavy favorite to return to the White House. The campaign wasn’t set up to beat Kamala Harris or someone else, so Trump supporters are begging Biden to stay in the race. As the convention continues, more and more Republicans are trying to shoehorn Kamala Harris into their speeches.
Here’s JD Vance on Wednesday night:
We need a leader who’s not in the pocket of big business, but answers to the working man, union and nonunion alike. A leader who won’t sell out to multinational corporations, but will stand up for American companies and American industry. A leader who rejects Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’s Green New Scam and fights to bring back our great American factories.
Other speakers previewed what I expect to be the top two attacks if Harris becomes the nominee. One, she was in charge of the border and therefore responsible for the chaos that is so prominent in Republican rhetoric. Not to get into technicalities, but she was not specifically responsible for border security; she was in charge of working with countries in the region to stem the flow of migrants. The second attack is classic MAGA conspiracy-mongering — Harris was part of an effort to cover up Biden’s mental infirmities. The former may have some purchase with swing voters; the latter is mostly red meat for the MAGA base, although it could lead to some uncomfortable media encounters.
Trump is Not Inevitable
The week has been more of a coronation than a convention. Trump and the Republicans are brimming with confidence about his prospects of returning to the White House. A sense of inevitability loomed over the convention and permeated the media coverage, magnified by the near-miss assassination attempt on the former President. His party and even some in the media are treating Trump as a candidate of destiny. But Trump is not inevitable. He is vulnerable.
Yes, he is ahead in the polls today, but he can be beaten. Look at that guy on stage last night. The speech wasn’t good. It didn’t offer a compelling vision for the country. It was low energy, bordering on somnambulant. Trump couldn’t discuss his policy agenda because that would stick a thumb in the eye of most voters. There was no message. Trump lost his fastball.
It’s easy to forget, given the tone and tenor of the press coverage over the last week, but the majority of voters in this country are anti-MAGA. Trump can — and will — be defeated if and only if we do the work to once again turn out the coalition that defeated MAGA in 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2022.
With all due respect, Dan, I think you guys are leading us all off a cliff here. Biden is a known, baked in quantity. If he stays in the race and his party and the media let him, there can be an instant pivot to Trump. Anything else — dragging it out and ending up the the status quo, switching to Harris and arguing about back room deals and who the VP should be, or holding an open primary and watching what’s been taking place on social media move to prime time TV — any other scenario keeps the focus on the Dems and not to their advantage. The coverage for 3 weeks has been horrible for Biden — the worst I’ve ever seen. No wonder he’s sliding in some swing state polls. He’s still holding his own in the popular vote and no reason to think any of that polling drop is permanent. What are you and the PodPeople and the party leaders possibly thinking is a good idea about jumping on a cliff into the unknown at a moment like this?
ETA: to be clear, I am asking you to convince me. You are all so sure you are right and I’m so sure you aren’t. We are all on the same side, want the same outcome, and I don’t classify you as one as one of the people who never wanted Biden to run again and see this as your chance to remove him.
There are many, many people who want Biden to stay in, even if they are worried about him. If the party does what they are apparently poised to do, it’s going to be crucial to bring everyone along. When I am asked to defend/explain what the party is doing, I’m at a loss. Help me here!!
(I taught a seminar of political science interns last night — kids who have either spent a semester in DC or are headed there in the fall. Of the dozen or so who showed up, most were Dems. One kiddo is a Rep. All had seen the debate. All were worried sick. Only one student could see a possible update to Biden stepping down but most were oppressed and, really surprising to me, two guys were furious with the party for what they saw as disloyalty and backstabbing. They aren’t particular Biden fans but they think he can win and is being treated shabbily. Anyway, they were looking to me for explanations and reassurance and I had none. If you can persuade me, I can pass it on.)
Thanks, as always, for a frank assessment. I will offer this. Many people want to do the work. As an organizer, I've seen an uptick in the last two weeks of people wanting to do something. I'm organizing a door knocking crew to hold the MN senate AND turn out the vote. People came up to me last night and said, "We are in. What should I do next?" At this point, this is about values. What future do you want for you and your family and what candidate is most likely to help us move in that direction? I don't care which Dem runs for President - they will be more aligned with the future I want for my grandchildren, community and state than any MAGA republican.